August 10 and little going on in the Atlantic

  By Mark Sudduth | August 10, 2018 - 4:55 PM |
Leave a comment

August 10, 2018 4:50 PM ET

We are almost 1/3 of the way through August and so far, the tropical Atlantic looks generally quiet. While there is an area of interest embedded within the ITCZ, there is still too much in the way of negative factors in play for it to develop.

However….slowly but surely the Atlantic Basin is beginning to stir. It’s nothing like last year when we saw 10 hurricane form in a row, mainly due to a warmer than average swath of ocean water between Africa and Central America. We all know what happened and so far, it looks like we won’t see a repeat. That being said, we have no way of knowing whether or not an impactful storm or hurricane will make its way towards land areas before all is said and done in November – but it looks doubtful that we will see anything like 2017.

Check out my latest video discussion, posted below, for an in-depth look at current conditions and what we will be watching for in the coming days.

M. Sudduth

Share

Watching hurricane Hector in the Pacific

  By Mark Sudduth | August 3, 2018 - 3:49 PM |
Leave a comment

Updated: 3:45 pm ET Friday, August 3, 2018

Mark Sudduth, HurricaneTrack.com

While the Atlantic Basin remains very quiet due to sinking air, dry air and cooler than average sea surface temps, the east Pacific is quite busy.

I am currently tracking hurricane Hector which is way out in the open Pacific and moving generally westward. While it may pose a threat to Hawaii in a few days, the current steering pattern suggests that it should stay sufficiently south to keep the worst effects away. This is not certain as of yet but so far, the news seems positive; something to keep an eye on for sure.

In my latest video post, I go over the latest concerning Hector as well as a detailed look at not only sea surface temps at the surface but also the all-important upper ocean heat content and how it differs from last year at this time. Check it out below.

M. Sudduth 3:45 PM ET Aug 3

Share

As we end July, the tropics look to remain quiet

  By Mark Sudduth | July 26, 2018 - 2:43 PM |
Leave a comment

Outside of Beryl and Chris, July has not delivered any major issues from the tropics – at least not in the form of any tropical storms or hurricanes. Dry, stable air over the tropical Atlantic has kept a lid on things and I do not see this changing anytime over the next several days.

In the east Pacific, this region too has been very quiet with no threats to Mexico at all during the entire month of July. Here too, I see no reason to think we will have any issues before the month is all said and done. However, a series of disturbances position well to the west of the Mexican coastline, far out in the east Pacific, shows signs of possible development but they will be moving away from land.

Once we get in to August, the tendency for the Atlantic to become active begins to increase quite a bit, especially as we move towards the latter half of the month. With things remaining nice and calm now, remember to use the time to get things done that can help you later: check your generator, make sure the family car is in good running order, etc. etc.

I cover these topics and more in my daily video discussion posted below.

M. Sudduth 2:45 PM ET July 26

Share

Keeping track of the remnants Beryl; soon to be hurricane Chris

  By Mark Sudduth | July 9, 2018 - 3:33 PM |
Leave a comment

As we begin the new work week there is a lot to keep up with in the Atlantic basin. I will be keeping close tabs on the remnants of what was once hurricane Beryl plus  what should soon be hurricane Chris.

The biggest impact from Chris, for the US, will be  dangerous surf and rip current conditions for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states.

As the week progresses, we will just have to see what impacts will be in store for the Canadian Maritimes.

I take a look at all of this and much more during my in-depth video discussion for today.

July 9 Hurricane Outlook and Discussion

Share

Tracking Beryl and Chris

  By Mark Sudduth | July 8, 2018 - 2:09 PM |
Leave a comment

Beryl

It looks as though Beryl has already degenerated in to a tropical wave and is likely no longer a true tropical storm. However, the technical classification won’t matter too much as the effects will generally be the same: gusty winds, periods of heavy rain and locally rough seas as it approaches the Lesser Antilles throughout the day and tonight.

The forecast from the NHC indicates that Beryl will in fact be only a tropical wave by tonight as it moves very quickly in to the eastern Caribbean Sea. From that point on, we will certainly monitor the future progress of the system as there are indications in the model guidance that it may try to stage a comeback once it reaches the southwest Atlantic well east of Florida and the Bahamas. For now, it will be a nuisance event for some of the islands of the eastern Caribbean.

Chris

Next we have tropical storm Chris which was upgraded this morning. Top winds are 45 mph and are forecast to increase and Chris is expected to become the season’s second hurricane; well ahead of the climatological norm.

The impacts from the tropical storm will be minimal for the coast of North Carolina and elsewhere since Chris is not going to get any closer at this point. That being said, the threat of rough surf and deadly rip currents will persist for several days and needs to be taken seriously. If there are red flags flying at the beach, it means NO SWIMMING and you really should stay out of the water. I know it’s frustrating but so is planning a funeral, so heed the warnings and use extreme caution if you will be at the beach anywhere along the Carolina coast and eventually the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as the week progresses. Swells from what is likely to be a hurricane will affect a large portion of the East Coast and it’s the height of beach season – just keep this in mind.

As for the future track of Chris, it looks as though it will move quite slowly at first and then move on out to the northeast with potential direct impacts for parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later this coming week.

Water temps are quite cold in the region but the warm Gulf Stream will provide plenty of energy to allow Chris to steadily intensify as it moves away from the U.S. coast. It will be losing its warm, tropical characteristics as it approaches the Canadian Maritimes but heavy rain and strong winds are a good bet at some point over the coming days. Let’s see how strong and how well organized Chris becomes over the next couple of days – then we can fine-tune what impacts are to be expected later on.

Elsewhere, the tropics are quiet including the east Pacific which has no threat of development anytime soon.

M. Sudduth 2:10 PM ET July 8

Share