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Commentary & Updates by: Mark Sudduth, HurricaneTrack.com Founder, Editor
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UPDATED: 9:20 am EDT, September 8, 2008
IKE HAMMERING CUBA BUT COULD BE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OFF AND ON LATER TODAY

Hurricane Ike is giving our Cuban neighbors all they can handle this morning. Top winds are near 100mph with much higher gusts. Overall, the hurricane looks rather impressive for being over land. It has lost a lot of its deeper thunderstorms but the structure looks to remain fairly intact. With a movement of due west, Ike could briefly move over the Caribbean Sea just south of Cuba within the next few hours. In fact, some of the latest models show Ike touching water off and on as it moves along the Cuban coast. This would keep Ike stronger than if it were to stay right down the middle of the island. Once over the very warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico, we should see Ike return to major hurricane status as the forecast track takes Ike over the Loop Current for at least 24 hours. Obviously the intensity of Ike will be of great concern for those living along the Gulf Coast. Of greater concern is where Ike might make final landfall. The official track forecast shows a direct threat to the upper Texas coast but this is 120+ hours away and track errors at this point can be as much as 300 miles. Folks from Corpus Christi to Panama City should pay close attention to where Ike is headed as the week unfolds. So far, the likely area for landfall appears to be between the upper Texas coast to perhaps central Louisiana. It is all going to depend on how strong the trough is that will dip in from the upper Midwest. Remember, it is kind of like a magnet attracting a piece of metal. The greater the attraction, the more likely they are to link up and in this case, Ike would turn more northerly. When that happens, if at all, will determine who gets hit by this potentially very dangerous hurricane.

The rest of the tropics are fairly quiet although Josephine is possibly making a comeback out in the central Atlantic. Some models show it getting a chance of reintensifying a little as upper level winds become more favorable. This system is far enough out to sea that even if it does come back, it would be days away from any land areas. We'll watch it though just to be sure... I'll have another update here early this evening.