While we do have a tropical depression to keep track of in the extreme southeastern Bay of Campeche, it is what’s possible in the Pacific Northwest that has me intrigued.
First up, TD9.
So far this has been only a nuisance event with periods of squalls for portions of the Yucatan and southeast Mexico. I do not see the depression strengthening much before it reaches the coast later tonight though it does have at least a small chance of becoming a tropical storm. The biggest impact will be rain and even that is not likely to be too widespread nor very intense.
Long range computer guidance suggests that the depression will move in to the western Caribbean Sea where it is more than likely to be absorbed in to a frontal boundary and stretched out over the southwest Atlantic. There is an outside chance that a piece of energy hangs back and tries to develop further in the coming days. However, a lot of dry air is funneling down from the north across the Gulf of Mexico and this is likely to shut things off, perhaps for the rest of the season. It is wise to keep monitoring the system but I see very little to be concerned with at this point in time.
Of bigger interest to me now is Ana in the central Pacific. Yes, a tropical storm way out past the atolls of the open Pacific.
I took a look at the track map, embedded here in the blog, and thought, hmmm, what if it were to get back all the way to the west coast of the United States as an ex-tropical cyclone? I took at look at the GFS and sure enough, it shows that scenario happening! It’s six days out in time but the storm transitions in to a potent non-tropical storm system over the north Pacific and slams in to Washington and Oregon next week. The implications are that we could see very heavy precip, strong winds and a coastal wave event that could lead to issues along the immediate shoreline.
This is going to be something to watch in the coming days. It’s far enough out in time to know that things could change quite a bit but the chance is at least there that an ex-Pacific hurricane could lead to serious weather issues for a big population area of the northwest U.S. down the road. I’ll have more on this each day over the next several days.
Otherwise, the tropics are of little concern as fall weather really takes hold over the Lower 48. We have likely escaped this hurricane season without a major hurricane making landfall – an extraordinary record to be sure. I don’t want to jinx things but the pattern right now suggests that it’s going to be quiet from here on out. We’ll see, it’s not over until it’s over, I saw that first hand in Bermuda not quite a week ago now with Gonzalo.
I’ll have more here tomorrow morning.
M. Sudduth 3:35 PM ET Oct 22