The east Pacific hurricane season has been quite busy so far with three named storms; one of them becoming a major hurricane.
It looks as though another tropical depression is forming not too far off the coast of Manzanillo. The good news here is two-fold. First, the system is only experiencing marginally favorable conditions to develop so it should not ramp up very quickly. Second, computer model guidance suggests that it will not track in to Mexico but rather turn back to the north and northwest over the next couple of days. While it could strengthen in to a tropical storm, none of the intensity models indicate a very strong system. Obviously, interests along the Pacific coast of Mexico will need to monitor this feature closely until it starts moving away.
Meanwhile, I am watching a large area of showers and thunderstorms that has developed over the southeast Gulf of Mexico and portions of the northern Caribbean Sea. The NHC mentions that there is a surface trough in the region which is simply a weak area of low pressure that acts like a focusing mechanism for unsettled weather. Upper level winds are not completely hostile but they’re not particularly favorable either. Water temps are plenty warm and this will lead to a continuation of the shower and thunderstorm activity that we currently have in place.
Computer models indicate that the disturbance is likely to remain in the region and move slowly northwest throughout the remainder of the week. The result will be periods of stormy weather for the Florida peninsula. In fact, the precip forecast from the HPC shows the potential for several inches of rain to fall across south Florida (see graphic). Beyond that, I do not see much in the way of potential for the system to become a tropical storm although this scenario cannot be ruled out. As long as the disturbance remains disorganized and lacking of a well defined low level center, it will not do much more than be a large rain maker.
Elsewhere, invest 95L, over the cold waters of the North Atlantic, is a non-issue except for shipping interests. The storm system had some potential yesterday to develop in to a more tropical type storm but that window has since closed.
I’ll post another update here tomorrow with more info on the Pacific and Atlantic at that time.