TS Leslie remains just below hurricane intensity as a fairly constant northerly shear pattern is in place, keeping the deep convection from wrapping around the low level center. It is quite remarkable how hostile the deep tropics have been again this season which in turn has meant that we’ve had no major hurricanes as of yet (no category three or higher hurricanes). However, the global models all show Leslie moving in to a more favorable environment over the next several days and it should become a fairly strong hurricane at that time. Ocean temps are warm and the wind shear is forecast to relax considerably.
The steering pattern is complex and could have some big implications for Bermuda as the coming week unfolds. Right now, the storm is moving along to the northwest at a fairly good pace, 15 mph. This will soon change as the flow in the atmosphere changes and Leslie gets stuck in the middle of this pattern change. There is a chance it could just meander out in the Atlantic for a couple of days. How close this happens to Bermuda remains to be seen but there is a chance that Leslie could impact the island beyond the NHC five day forecast period. Interests in Bermuda should just keep an eye on the future predictions for Leslie this coming week.
Surfers should also keep an eye as well since the farther west Leslie tracks and the stronger it gets, the more long period swell action the East Coast will see. We’ll know more about what to expect later this week but it looks like there will be some increase in the surf along parts of the East Coast by next weekend.
The remainder of the Atlantic is quiet in terms of any other issues to be concerned about. I think we are heading for a lull in the action once Leslie moves out but that could take a while as mentioned above.
I will have more here tomorrow morning.