It looks like the weak nature of Leslie has allowed it to track a little more west than originally forecast and this may be enough to trap it under a building ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic in the coming days.
The latest ECMWF model shows quite a significant westward shift in the track of Leslie beyond day five. In fact, the model now shows a landfall in Nova Scotia at day nine, which is a change from the curving-out-to-sea scenario that has been the norm as of late for that model.
Both the GFS and the Euro also indicate that Leslie will grow to be a powerful hurricane with nearly ideal upper level conditions over water temps that are running several degrees above normal in some places. This will lead to a substantial wave event along the East Coast and of course, Bermuda, later this week and in to the weekend. This, in and of itself, could be a big problem with days and days of pounding surf. I’ll address this more on tomorrow’s blog post.
For now, Leslie is rather disorganized and moving generally northward. We’ll see what the NHC has to say on their next forecast package. I suspect we’ll start to see some subtle shifts to the west in the track and an increase in the intensity over time.
I’ll post more here late tonight and then again tomorrow morning. For a video discussion of the tropics, be sure to pick up our iPhone app in the App Store. We have a new update coming out any day now which will greatly improve functionality and I’ll post a separate write-up about that once Apple has approved it.