Latest Euro model to raise a few eyebrows along East Coast

Euro Forecast for Leslie Shows it Getting Closer to the East Coast of U.S.

Euro Forecast for Leslie Shows it Getting Closer to the East Coast of U.S.

It looks like the weak nature of Leslie has allowed it to track a little more west than originally forecast and this may be enough to trap it under a building ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic in the coming days.

The latest ECMWF model shows quite a significant westward shift in the track of Leslie beyond day five. In fact, the model now shows a landfall in Nova Scotia at day nine, which is a change from the curving-out-to-sea scenario that has been the norm as of late for that model.

Both the GFS and the Euro also indicate that Leslie will grow to be a powerful hurricane with nearly ideal upper level conditions over water temps that are running several degrees above normal in some places. This will lead to a substantial wave event along the East Coast and of course, Bermuda, later this week and in to the weekend. This, in and of itself, could be a big problem with days and days of pounding surf. I’ll address this more on tomorrow’s blog post.

For now, Leslie is rather disorganized and moving generally northward. We’ll see what the NHC has to say on their next forecast package. I suspect we’ll start to see some subtle shifts to the west in the track and an increase in the intensity over time.

I’ll post more here late tonight and then again tomorrow morning. For a video discussion of the tropics, be sure to pick up our iPhone app in the App Store. We have a new update coming out any day now which will greatly improve functionality and I’ll post a separate write-up about that once Apple has approved it.

About Mark Sudduth

Greetings! I am Mark Sudduth, the founder and editor of HurricaneTrack.com. The site began in 1999 as a way to post info concerning tropical storms and hurricanes for any interested visitors. Little did I know how big it would become in the years since. Now, we have millions of visitors from all over the world who have come to rely on the site as a no non-sense, tell it like it is resource for all things hurricane related. We are supported by a combination of corporate sponsors and our loyal Client Services members who subscribe to premium content on our sister site, premium.hurricanetrack.com. I am married with six energetic and intelligent children and live in southeast North Carolina. I graduated UNC-Wilmington in 1995 with a BA in Geography and have studied the effects of hurricanes on our society ever since.
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