The Atlantic Basin is unusually quiet for this time of the hurricane season and I do not see that changing anytime soon.
We are tracking TS Nadine out near the Azores but that’s it and even Nadine is not that much of an issue.
Some people are blaming El Nino for the quietness, I do not think that the tropical Pacific is really all that warm compared to normal and we are certainly not in an official El Nino period as of yet. In fact, the central Pacific SST anomalies cooled by .30 degrees C in the recent week – and this is also not typical of an El Nino. So what is the reason behind the quiet time? It’s most likely the MJO phase which is currently not favorable in the Atlantic Basin. In other words, we are not in a pattern that supports upward motion in the tropics across the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. The lack of instability and generally unfavorable conditions are simply not allowing for any new development.
Looking at the long range models, I do not see any signs of change over the next week to 10 days either. We may escape September with no additional named storms in the Atlantic.
As for October? We’ll wait and see. Without a solid El Nino in place, it is possible that we could have a normal October with a couple of hurricanes developing somewhere – but that’s the key, where? Time will tell. For now, the tropics are of little concern and look to stay that way for quite some time.
Be sure to catch today’s video blog in our iPhone app as it covers these topics graphically. Also, we are anticipating a new update to the app within the next few days that I will address in tomorrow’s blog post.