I have a feeling that Sandy is going to be a lot stronger than forecast. Why not? Intensity predictions are where there is the least amount of skill when it comes to tropical cyclones. Sandy is currently situated over some of the warmest, highest heat content water in the Atlantic Basin with an obvious building area of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This should lead to a period of quick strengthening and people in Jamaica better be ready for the potential of hurricane conditions over the next couple of days.
Not much has changed today in the future track concerns for Sandy. It looks as though eastern Cuba and then the central Bahamas will take a direct hit from the storm (hurricane?) with plenty of heavy rain spreading across a good portion of the Greater Antilles.
What the models seem to all indicate is that Sandy will continue to strengthen once over the extreme southwest Atlantic Ocean in about three days. Here too water temps are very warm and undisturbed this hurricane season. As with Jamaica, I am concerned about portions of the Bahamas having to deal with an intensifying hurricane sitting on top of the area. Keep in mind too that Sandy is not forecast to move very fast, this will only prolong the effects in any given area.
Now, for the part where folks along the U.S. East Coast have to pay attention. The long range models are split in to two distinct camps. The GFS and its related modeling ejects Sandy out in to the Atlantic on a northeast track, easily staying away from the U.S. coastline.
On the other end of the spectrum, the two non-U.S. generated models, the ECMWF and the Environment Canada CMC models both show Sandy getting stuck in the pattern, trying to turn out but then hooking back northwest to north with a landfall along the Northeast coast. What is most concerning, but almost certainly overdone, is the absurd intensity that the models are suggesting. It is my sincere hope that there is just something not right with what the Euro and Canadian predict for the long range. If they are even close to being correct, Sandy could transition in to one heck of a hybrid mix the likes of which the region has not seen in almost a generation.
As I mentioned earlier today, even though there is a lot of interest in what happens a week from now, we need to be sure to stay focused on what may be a hurricane threat in and coming out of the Caribbean Sea. We’ll have loads of time to see how the steering pattern evolves once Sandy gets in to the Bahamas.
I would also like to mention that I believe we will see some strong winds, out of the east and northeast, for portions of the Florida east coast in the coming days. This will lead to an increase in rough surf and possible dangerous rip currents. And, if Sandy tracks closer to the coast than forecast, it is possible that tropical storm conditions could be felt in some areas of extreme SE Florida. This is a very complex situation and one that will end up affecting people across a large geographic swath.
I’ll have more here tomorrow morning including a new video blog posted to our iPhone app. I will also be watching closely to see how far west Sandy tracks and if it warrants a field mission to coastal Florida later in the week. I think the next 48 hours will tell a lot about the future for Sandy and what impacts the U.S. will feel.