Big storm next week? Not so much and that is something to be quite thankful for

Both the GFS (shown here) and the ECMWF have next week's storm farther away from the U.S. coastline

Both the GFS (shown here) and the ECMWF have next week's storm farther away from the U.S. coastline

I hope I do not jinx the entire Eastern Seaboard with this post but here goes. As of today, the two major global models that I follow, the ECMWF and the GFS, have all but “given up” their idea of a big East Coast storm for next week. To say that this is good news is an understatement but nevertheless, the news is good, so far.

There will still be a storm, but it looks to be weaker and farther out to sea than the Euro was forecasting several days ago. I was really worried on Monday when it looked like a very bad situation was developing for the Mid-Atlantic and New England once again. What changed? As new data comes in and we get closer to the event in time, the models have a better handle on the upper air features and thus the forecast can change. We see this all the time when tracking hurricanes. I think that the fact the the Euro was so incredibly accurate with Sandy has perhaps jaded me a little, giving it a little too much credit in in the longer range forecasts. Still, I think we would rather know the potential is there and at least be in the mindset of dealing with something than having it pop up only 3 days ahead of time.

So the bottom line is this: it appears that a low pressure area will develop off the Southeast coast early next week. Instead of it moving nearly parallel to the coast as it intensifies, it is more likely to move away from the coast. This will significantly lessen the impacts but there could still be some larger than normal breaking waves which may lead to a few problems here and there along the immediate beachfront.

This also means that the heavy travel days of next week will not be plagued by bad weather. In fact, Thanksgiving Day may very well shape up to be a rather nice day along most of the East Coast. Hopefully this forecast will NOT change. A lot of people could use the break from bad weather.

Tomorrow: some thoughts about Sandy as I see quite a bit of chatter about whether or not it was a hurricane, why the warnings were not put up etc. I think I can add something to this seeing as I was there when it all went down.

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