The NHC has increased the probability of development for the tropical wave passing over portions of Central America to 40% this morning. Showers and thunderstorms have steadily increased with the system over the past 24 hours and if it were not for the land mass in its way, it would be a depression by now.
As it stands now, there is quite a bit of land in its way and this will preclude any significant development for the next day or so. There is a chance that the wave energy emerges in to the Bay of Campeche where it will have a chance to develop in to a depression or tropical storm.
Most of the computer guidance suggests that a track over the extreme southern portion of the Bay of Campeche is likely before finally reaching Mexico again on the western side of the bay later this week.
Water temps in that region are plenty warm and upper level winds are becoming more and more favorable. It won’t take much for this system to become a tropical depression or even a moderate torpical storm if it can get free of the land interaction it is dealing with now.
The main impact right now will be heavy rains for areas of Central America, including Belize and the Yucatan. This will spread westward over the next few days and it is possible for several inches of rain to fall across the region.
As for any possible impacts to the U.S. go, we can thank a fairly strong ridge of high pressure to the north of the tropical wave for keeping it on a general westward course. None of the computer guidance indicates that it will gain much latitude this week and so it appears that even south Texas will remain clear of any ill-effects from this weather feature.
The rest of the tropics, including the east Pacific, are nice and quiet as we begin the week. I’ll post more here this evening.