The forecast for a busy season looks to be panning out so far as we have had two tropical storms already in the month of June, a rare thing to happen. Fortunately, no hurricanes have formed and thus the impacts have been tolerable.
The way things look now, it appears that we will be entering a period of active tropical weather as we end June and head in to July.
First up will be the east Pacific where two areas of disturbed weather are being monitored by the NHC. Both are far from land and both have a low chance of development right now. However, computer guidance suggests that a tropical cyclone of some magnitude will form well off the coast of Mexico within the next several days. The good news here is that steering patterns indicate a track towards the west and away from land. This system also looks rather large in the model fields and could mean an increase in the surf for areas along the Baja peninsula and other areas of Pacific Mexico.
Next, we will have to watch the western Caribbean once again for the possibility of tropical development later next week. The GFS, which is generally very good at detecting development in the medium to long range time span, has been consistently showing low pressure coming together north of Honduras in about a week. While this may seem to far out in to the future to take very seriously, consider the pattern we are in and that this region has been the hot-spot this season. I am going to be monitoring this area quite closely over the next several days to see if other reliable models jump on board with development.
Then, we have the MJO which I talked about in yesterday’s post. It has not reached its favorable phase for the Atlantic or east Pacific just yet. With things beginning to look more active as it is, I would tend to think that the addition of a favorable upward motion pattern, the wet phase of the MJO pulse, would really aid to get development going further as we get in to July. I believe there is a decent chance that July will be quite a bit more active than we’re used to seeing as of late.
I think it is remarkable that we have the tools to see in to the future enough to at least get a clue that something may be brewing in the not-to-distant future. I hope this information helps as it is not intended to be alarming but rather a good heads-up to be aware and know what may be coming down the road. Long range computer model guidance is getting better and better each year and recognizing certain patterns helps as well. Use this information to at least keep your attention on the tropics a little more than usual for this time of year. We have had a busy season already with Andrea and Barry. This looks to be the start of a very busy few months ahead, just as we were told by the many forecasts put out by NOAA, Colorado State and others who make it a point at trying to figure out the hurricane season in advance. We may get lucky and nothing happens of any significance but luck also favors the prepared.
I’ll have more on this developing pattern tomorrow.