Now that Chantal has come and gone, we can return to a more typical July pattern in the tropics. While the remnants of Chantal are still out there, and need to be monitored for signs of re-development, the odds are against that happening. Upper level winds and just general unfavorable conditions in the region should prevent any substantial flare up of convection and organization with what’s left over of Chantal.
The rest of the tropics are nice and quiet as high pressure dominates the Atlantic. In fact, the ITCZ or Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, has been pushed rather far to the south over the deep tropics and this will likely keep that region free and clear of any development over the next few days.
Despite Chantal and its unlikely development these last few days, July is typically a hostile month for the Atlantic Basin. Strong outbreaks of Saharan air usually blanket the Atlantic with dry, stable air, filled with dust kicked up off the Sahara in Africa. It’s not until about mid-August or even later that climatology shows as being prime time for development. I think Chantal was a sure fire sign of things to come, yes, but probably not anytime soon. The next several days should be nice across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
I’ll have more here tomorrow, sooner if Chantal somehow manages to cause trouble.