MJO taking a vacation so tropics will remain quiet

MJO current and forecast position by various computer models. Right now, the MJO is of little amplitude and is not contributing to tropical convection anywhere around the world.

MJO current and forecast position by various computer models. Right now, the MJO is of little amplitude and is not contributing to tropical convection anywhere around the world.

After the brief life-span of TS Chantal, the tropics are now quiet again. Part of the reason behind this is climatology: the tropics are generally very quiet during this period of July. The other reason is the MJO or Madden-Julian Oscillation. Think of the MJO as a period of fertility in the tropics. When the MJO is present, upward motion or tropical convection usually blooms and often leads to tropical cyclone formation during summer months. On the flip side, when the dry phase of the MJO rolls around, the air is converging and sinking, not allowing much tropical convection to occur. While it’s possible to have tropical cyclones form during the dry phase of the MJO, experience shows that a favorable MJO pulse often leads to the development of tropical storms and hurricanes. Right now, the MJO for the Atlantic Basin is taking some time off.

In fact, the MJO is not really amplified anywhere across the globe at the moment and as such, the tropics world-wide are generally quiet. There is one area of growing convection in the west Pacific that has a chance of developing in the coming days but that’s it. Without an amplified MJO pulse, it looks like the next several days at least will be nice and quiet. I see nothing of concern within the global models over the next week to 10 days. Once we get in to August, climatology begins to shift and it is possible that another favorable MJO pulse will coincide with that shift and things should be quite busy later in the month. For now, enjoy the calm conditions while they last.

M. Sudduth

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About Mark Sudduth

Greetings! I am Mark Sudduth, the founder and editor of HurricaneTrack.com. The site began in 1999 as a way to post info concerning tropical storms and hurricanes for any interested visitors. Little did I know how big it would become in the years since. Now, we have millions of visitors from all over the world who have come to rely on the site as a no non-sense, tell it like it is resource for all things hurricane related. We are supported by a combination of corporate sponsors and our loyal Client Services members who subscribe to premium content on our sister site, premium.hurricanetrack.com. I am married with six energetic and intelligent children and live in southeast North Carolina. I graduated UNC-Wilmington in 1995 with a BA in Geography and have studied the effects of hurricanes on our society ever since.
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