Invest area 92L is looking more organized today with deep convection taking on a more curved look in satellite imagery. Also noted is a more well established upper level outflow pattern. This will aid in the development of this system over the next couple of days while conditions remain favorable over the very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea.
The NHC notes that a low pressure center may be forming somewhere between the Caymans and the Yucatan. The low is forecast by most of the computer models to move to the northwest and possibly cross the Yucatan and in to the Gulf of Mexico. This means that a lot of rain and some increase in wind is headed for the region today and tomorrow. Interests in the area need to be aware of this large weather system and understand the rain threat is significant. Fortunately, it does not look like 92L will have much chance to rapidly strengthen but it wouldn’t take much for it to become a tropical depression or tropical storm.
Beyond the next 48 hours, the track is quite uncertain. Some of the model guidance indicates a track towards the U.S. Gulf Coast while others are more west towards Mexico. As we have seen so many times before, it will come down to the timing of how an upper level trough interacts with the system over the coming days.
If the trough can create a weakness in the steering pattern to the north of the disturbance, then it can have a hole, if you will, to move in to and thus towards the Gulf Coast states.
On the other hand, if the trough is not strong enough to erode the high pressure to the north of the disturbance, and the high actually builds back in once the trough lifts out, then it will get pushed westward across the Bay of Campeche and towards Mexico. There’s no way to know which scenario will play out – we’ll just have to wait and see. Right now, most of the reliable guidance is pointing towards the Gulf Coast but this can change as more data becomes available for each new run of the models. If you live along the U.S. Gulf Coast anywhere from Texas to Florida, just keep an eye on this feature over the next couple of days. As I said, intensity forecasts from the various models do not indicate much chance for strengthening and hopefully that will remain the case. We’ll watch and see how things progress today and tomorrow.
Elsewhere, we have invest area 93L far out in the eastern Atlantic. This system has a solid chance of becoming a tropical depression before it moves in to a more stable environment where the mid-level air is drier. It’s only of concern to interests in the Cape Verde Islands right now.
All of this activity is part of the pattern that is slowly beginning to unfold across the tropics. We’ve seen a lot of storm activity in the Pacific, now it’s the Atlantic’s turn. The next several weeks are likely to become increasingly busy throughout the Atlantic as there are signs that the upper level pattern is about to become quite favorable. Despite all the talk of dry air, dust and a lack of activity, it is still going to be a very busy season. There are just too many overwhelming signals in favor of that to be ignored. Now is the time to be prepared. Take that generator to a small engine repair shop to have it looked at in case you need it later. Do the little things now that can help alleviate the stress that comes with an approaching hurricane. It’s about to get very busy out there and as such, people need to be ready.
I’ll have another post here later on this evening.
M. Sudduth 1pm ET August 14