The NHC has outlined two areas, 92L and 93L, for potentially becoming the next tropical depression in the Atlantic Basin this evening. Neither pose a significant threat of impact to land for the time being.
Looking at satellite images of 92L, which is located in the western Caribbean Sea, the organization trend appears to be continuing. It won’t take much to get this system to tropical depression status. The NHC reports that winds are already gusting to gale force within the heavy rain bands to the east of the broad center of circulation. The main impact here will be rain and occasional gusty winds for portions of the Caymans, western Cuba and the Yucatan.
So far, the advanced global models are not impressed with 92L and do little with it over the coming days. On the other hand, some of the regional, hurricane-specific models create a hurricane out of the system. This seems unlikely considering the nature of the upper level winds across the Gulf of Mexico as we round out the week. However, water temps are very warm across the region and intensity forecasting is the weak link in the overall hurricane forecasting process. Odds are this system remains weak and lopsided, with most of the worst weather to the east of the center. We shall see.
As far as track goes, here again, the models are of little help since the global models do not show much of anything to begin with. A track generally northwest and eventually over the Yucatan seems likely tomorrow and Friday. Beyond that time, we’ll see what’s out there before worrying too much about where it goes.
In the far eastern Atlantic, 93L continues to become better organized and should become a tropical depression before the weekend. Its track seems to be westward over the open Atlantic with no impact to land except for portions of the Cape Verde Islands. We’ll have plenty of time to monitor this system as it moves westward.
I’ll post more here tomorrow morning on both systems.
M. Sudduth 8:05pm ET August 14