Just as we are about to end September, which was as quiet as you will likely ever see it, things begin to become more active across the Atlantic.
Here is a run down of what’s going on and where…
In the central Atlantic, a tropical wave that had been tangled up with an upper level low pressure area has become better organized today. The NHC says it could become a tropical depression over the next day or so as it remains well out to sea and away from any land areas. It could eventually become a weak tropical storm but it should not last too long considering the fairly hostile environment over the Atlantic right now.
The other area to watch, which is of greater concern right now, is in the Caribbean Sea. An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed in association with a large pressure fall in the region. Several of the global models go on to develop this system as it moves northwest and eventually in to the southeast Gulf of Mexico.
While none of the guidance shows anything very strong at the moment, one must keep in mind that the water is very warm in this area and will be along much of the track of this potential system. The mitigating factor seems to be upper level winds which do not appear to be very conducive for significant strengthening over the coming days. Nevertheless, rain and squally weather is likely to spread across portions of the Caribbean Sea and eventually impact Jamaica and Cuba before reaching the southeast Gulf of Mexico.
Beyond that time, we will just have to see what we’re dealing with in terms of storm structure, upper level winds and steering flow. Speculating about potential impacts to Florida beyond the five day time period is pointless right now except to say that folks along the west coast should be keeping an eye on this feature – just as you would any October tropical development. With the recent heavy rains for parts of the state, a tropical cyclone of any intensity would not be good news. We’ll see how things play out over the next few days and whether or not we actually have a tropical depression or storm develop from this system.
Elsewhere, the eastern Atlantic looks to try and spin up another weak storm as the pattern tries to make up for lost ground in recent weeks. There are some indications that the MJO or Madden-Julian Oscillation, which promotes tropical convection and upward motion, could become more favorable across the Atlantic Basin in the coming weeks. This could result in a very busy October, especially considering the warm water temps that are in abundance right now. It is important to at least pay attention to the tropics as the old saying goes about it not being over until it’s over…
I’ll have more here tomorrow, sooner if something develops and warrants an additional post.
M. Sudduth 2:10 pm ET Sept 28