The left over energy from Karen has made its way in to a potent coastal storm that is giving portions of the Mid-Atlantic states quite an unpleasant few days. Unfortunately, it is going to take another day or two before things change significantly.
Right now the surface low appears to be just off the North Carolina coast south of Cape Lookout. Since this is not a tropical cyclone, the highest concentration of energy, and in this case that means wind, is spread out well away from the low center. Winds will be in the 30 to 40 mph range across a wide area from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to parts of Delaware and Maryland. This will cause some minor coastal flooding, especially near each high tide cycle.
Rain is also a major issue with several inches falling from this storm system. Obviously, the result will be some flooding of typical low lying areas and other poorly drained streets. Use caution when driving in this mess. The worst of it will move in within the next day or two and finally clear the pattern by later in the weekend, bringing very nice fall weather back to the East Coast.
Elsewhere in the tropics, we are watching invest 98L way out in the deep tropics. It has a shot at becoming a tropical storm over the next several days but conditions in the central Atlantic are not that ideal right now so don’t expect much to come out of this. What ever does manage to develop will not affect land areas.
In the east Pacific, a new area of concern has developed off the coast of Mexico – invest area 94-E. It is forecast by what model guidance there is to move away from Mexico at first, followed by a sharp turn to the north and then northeast ahead of a strong trough of low pressure off the west coast of the U.S. Interest in Mexico should closely monitor this system. It has some potential to become a hurricane over the still quite warm waters of the east Pacific.
In the longer term, the global models show nothing of any significance developing in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. We are getting closer to the point where development chances really begin to go down but are not quite there yet. It’s been a remarkable season in that no hurricanes have even come close to affecting the United States. We may just make it until November 30 with that record intact. Time will tell but it’s looking good so far.
I’ll have more here tomorrow, especially concerning the east Pacific system.
M. Sudduth 1:05 PM ET Oct 9