Fork in the road developing?

Recent plot of various computer model guidance for the track of invest area 96L

Recent plot of various computer model guidance for the track of invest area 96L

Wanted to post a quick update tonight on 96L. Not much new really with the structure and current intensity but there is some new info regarding its future track.

As we saw a couple of days ago when people were posting day 8-9 images of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, today we’ve seen quite a bit of “it will turn out to sea” posts and blogs in social media. This may very well turn out to be the eventual fate of the system, no matter how strong it ever gets, but what if it’s not? Nothing is ever concrete with weather.

Take a look at the latest computer model plots for 96L. Note the obvious group of models that do in fact bend it out to the northeast with time.

Now look at the ones that take it more north and even some that bring it back westward towards the end of the five days. Look really close. One of them is the TVCA or consensus model (yellow track). This is significant in my opinion since it is often cited within NHC discussions as being a model of reference to build a forecast on. You’ll often times read “the forecast is X of the TVCA or consensus model” which means that the official forecast is usually not too far off that model’s track. It may be nothing and one model cycle does not mean a trend is beginning. Let’s see what happens over the next 24 to 36 hours. I think by this weekend, we’ll know whether or not 96L or Cristobal (the name it would get when/if it becomes a TS) is going to be something we need to be concerned with here along the Southeast U.S. coast.

For now, the low pressure area is bringing squally weather to portions of the northeast Caribbean Sea and this will spread westward tonight and throughout tomorrow. Heavy rain and occasional gusty winds will accompany the rain bands as they move through so interests in the region need to be aware and not get caught on a boat or otherwise unprepared.

I’ll have more here tomorrow morning.

M. Sudduth 10:21 PM ET Aug 21

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About Mark Sudduth

Greetings! I am Mark Sudduth, the founder and editor of HurricaneTrack.com. The site began in 1999 as a way to post info concerning tropical storms and hurricanes for any interested visitors. Little did I know how big it would become in the years since. Now, we have millions of visitors from all over the world who have come to rely on the site as a no non-sense, tell it like it is resource for all things hurricane related. We are supported by a combination of corporate sponsors and our loyal Client Services members who subscribe to premium content on our sister site, premium.hurricanetrack.com. I am married with six energetic and intelligent children and live in southeast North Carolina. I graduated UNC-Wilmington in 1995 with a BA in Geography and have studied the effects of hurricanes on our society ever since.

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