Hurricane Edouard is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Basin in over two years. We have to go back to Sandy in late October of 2012 to find a stronger hurricane than Edouard – that’s how slack the Atlantic has been as of late. Never the less, the NHC is forecasting Edouard to become a major hurricane with winds peaking at 120 mph. I suspect it will be stronger given the nature of intensity forecasting. This will help to boost the ACE score for the Atlantic which is now in the mid-20s and climbing. The only issue from Edouard will be swells that eventually reach Bermuda and parts of the East Coast and of course shipping interests in the open Atlantic.
The remainder of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf are free of any areas of concern for the time being.
In the east Pacific, the mega-season continues. Hurricane Odile made landfall last night near Cabo San Lucas as a strong category three causing significant damage to the region. It will be some time before we get a full picture of what happened but rest assured, the region took a hit last night and it’s still going on as Odile tracks up the spine of the Baja peninsula today.
The NHC forecast track keeps the hurricane over the peninsula and then turns it northeast across the northern portion of the Gulf of California. With most of the circulation of Odile over water, it may not weaken as much thus the risk of hurricane conditions spreading northward over the next day or so is high.
As Odile makes its way northward, deep tropical moisture will spread in to parts of the southwest United States. This will lead to an increase in rain chances as the week progresses and may result in significant rain fall for some locations. It is impossible to know which areas will receive the most rain but it is not out of the realm of possibility that we could see 3 to 5 inches. Flooding will once again be a big concern, especially in Arizona and New Mexico where it looks like a bulk of the moisture is headed. It is important for people in the region to pay close attention to NWS watch, warning and other info this week. Tropical cyclone impacts to the Southwest are rare but when they do happen, the results are often dramatic and dangerous.
I am going to be traveling out to Arizona later today – arriving in Phoenix this evening. I will have a full crew to work with utilizing two vehicles and plenty of equipment to document this potentially extraordinary event as it unfolds.
Our goal is to capture a flash flood as it happens using some of the same unmanned camera systems that we use in deadly hurricane storm surge. We can also provide on-site reports to our followers via Twitter, Instagram and of course, our app, Hurricane Impact. In addition, I will be providing The Weather Channel with several reports and live video throughout the field work over the coming days. We will go where the weather takes us, it’s not like a hurricane landfall where we need to be where the eye crosses the coast. The Desert Southwest is vast and often harsh, I have last week as somewhat of a guide to know what to expect but each trip is different and Odile is likely to bring an entirely new set of problems to the region. I cannot stress enough how important it will be for people in the area to keep up to date on the ever-changing situation.
I will post another update here late tonight, probably past Midnight ET and then more tomorrow morning.
M. Sudduth 10:25 AM ET Sept 15