The situation in the southwest Gulf of Mexico is fairly complicated. We have the energy from what was once tropical storm Trudy in the southeast Pacific. This energy crossed over Mexico and is now festering again in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. In fact, convection is on the increase this morning and the NHC has bumped the chances of development up to 40% now.
Model guidance suggests that upper level winds are not all that bad for additional development. Water temps are plenty warm and the region is still within a favorable MJO pattern which supports upward motion in the atmosphere.
However, none of the computer models are showing much in the way of robust development, none of them show a hurricane out of this, not yet anyway.
What is more likely to happen is that we see a weak, spread out tropical storm develop and move towards the east or east-northeast, in the general direction of Cuba and Florida. This means there is potential for a lot of rain in the coming days for parts of south Florida. Some guidance suggests upwards of 8 inches of rain or more for the Keys and other areas of extreme south Florida. Obviously this could change either in amounts or locations over the coming days but people in south Florida need to be ready for a possible big rain event.
Whether or not this disturbance eventually becomes a tropical storm remains to be seen. As I mentioned, I do not see any evidence just yet that this holds much potential for being a stronger wind event. The rain effects will be enough of an issue, believe me! We will see how things develop and go from there. At least it is not in a hurry to move or develop quickly.
This is the only area of concern that could impact land. Ex-Gonzalo is moving quickly towards the northern portions of the United Kingdom where strong winds, rough seas and heavy rains are expected later today and tomorrow.
Another area of disturbed weather is located way out in the far eastern Atlantic. It may have a chance to develop more over the fairly warm waters of the region but it won’t have any significant impact on land.
In the Pacific, tropical storm Ana is moving south of the Hawaiian islands and will turn north across the atoll islands west of Hawaii. Ana is expected to become a hurricane again but will be moving past any land areas at that time with minimal impact overall.
I will have more here on the situation in the Gulf with a post later this evening. I am back from Bermuda where a near perfect intercept of Gonzalo took place. I will be posting a full write-up, complete with video and data info that was collected, by later in the week.
M. Sudduth 10:55 AM ET Oct 20