Pacific about to get very, very busy while Atlantic remains closed

A very strong MJO or Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse is setting up across the tropical Pacific and once it reaches its full potential, we are likely to see a string of tropical cyclones develop.

The MJO is an interesting phenomena which is best described for the sake of simplicity as a period of fertility in the tropics. Think of upward motion as being “good” for development and downward motion as being “bad” for development. The more the air can rise and spread out evenly, the better the odds for tropical storms and hurricanes (typhoons) to get going. Conversely, if the air is sinking, this literally suppresses tropical convection and makes it very difficult for tropical cyclones.

Satellite photo of the Pacific where a strong MJO pulse is leading to an increase in tropical convection and eventually, numerous tropical cyclones

Satellite photo of the Pacific where a strong MJO pulse is leading to an increase in tropical convection and eventually, numerous tropical cyclones

Over the next couple of weeks a very favorable period for the tropical Pacific is likely. The major global models are indicating a very strong MJO signal and you can actually see it starting in the hemispheric satellite that shot I’ve included. The gathering of clouds just north of the Equator is no accident and fits in nicely with the coming MJO pulse.

As a result, the models are showing several tropical cyclones developing over the coming days across the Pacific. There are likely to be a few that reach incredible intensity, mainly due to the abnormally warm water across the region (El Nino).

Interests across the Pacific should be monitoring conditions as we enter this period of increased tropical cyclone activity. Even Hawaii has a chance for at least some impact once the central and east Pacific enter the favorable phase of the MJO – which won’t be too far off.

In the other basin, the Atlantic, things could not be more hostile. Dry, sinking air along with very high levels of wind shear (the change of wind direction and speed as you go up in the atmosphere) is literally keeping a lid on development chances. We typically do not see much during most of July anyway but right now, conditions are especially unfavorable and should remain that way for the next week or so at least.

Enjoy your 4th of July along the U.S. coast with no worries from the tropics. If you’re in the Pacific, as I mentioned, keep an eye on things over the next several days as the MJO ramps up and creates very favorable conditions. I’ll post another update here over the weekend to address any significant development that does occur in the Pacific.

Be safe this holiday period and I’ll have more this weekend.

M. Sudduth 11AM ET July 2

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About Mark Sudduth

Greetings! I am Mark Sudduth, the founder and editor of HurricaneTrack.com. The site began in 1999 as a way to post info concerning tropical storms and hurricanes for any interested visitors. Little did I know how big it would become in the years since. Now, we have millions of visitors from all over the world who have come to rely on the site as a no non-sense, tell it like it is resource for all things hurricane related. We are supported by a combination of corporate sponsors and our loyal Client Services members who subscribe to premium content on our sister site, premium.hurricanetrack.com. I am married with six energetic and intelligent children and live in southeast North Carolina. I graduated UNC-Wilmington in 1995 with a BA in Geography and have studied the effects of hurricanes on our society ever since.
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