The National Hurricane Center has recently identified an area of interest, a strong tropical wave with an associated low pressure center, not too far off the west coast of Africa. The tropical wave, labeled as 94L, is moving westward over warm water and actually has a slim chance at further development. However, the environment well ahead of this wave of low pressure is about as hostile as it gets. The combination of very strong upper level winds coupled with a generally stable atmosphere should clip the wings of this fledgling before it ever takes flight.
The global models are “seeing” this scenario as well and none are really doing much with 94L once it leaves the favorable environment that it is currently moving through.
It is interesting to note that after 94L seemingly dies off as it moves farther west that more strong tropical waves emerge from Africa in the coming days and also try to develop. I have to wonder – is the Atlantic just too hostile to allow any of them to flourish and become a tropical storm or hurricane? Or, is each one analogous to arrows being shot at a target: if you have enough, eventually one will hit. We are moving in to August very soon but it’s early August and even during a year without a strong El Nino, climatology tells us that eastern Atlantic development is rare until later in the month.
94L will be interesting to watch and will likely generate a lot of discussion within the hurricane blogosphere but from what I am seeing, that will be the extent of it. We never completely dismiss an area of interest and as such, I’ll be monitoring the future progress of this feature, even if it means watching from afar as it heads straight in to the sheer machine waiting to its west.
I’ll have more here tomorrow morning.
M. Sudduth 3:15 pm ET July 29