Probably going to see first hurricane develop in east Pacific this week – also, Atlantic season begins tomorrow

Invest area 91-E in the east Pacific has a good chance of developing in to the season's first hurricane for that part of the world. Forecast models show it moving away from Mexico

Invest area 91-E in the east Pacific has a good chance of developing in to the season’s first hurricane for that part of the world. Forecast models show it moving away from Mexico

The east Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and so far, nothing has developed. I think that changes this week as a favorable pattern for convective activity moves across the region.

As of early this morning, the NHC was monitoring an area of elongated low pressure well to the south of the Baja peninsula. The forecast calls for it to gradually become better organized with an 80% chance of it developing in to a tropical cyclone within the next five days. In fact, computer models suggest it will become a hurricane over the fairly warm water of the east Pacific.

Those same models also project a path away from land which means the system can get as strong as it wants without any impact to Mexico.

In the Atlantic, the remnants of short-lived tropical storm Bonnie continue to hang out near the Carolina coast with occasional bursts of limited convection taking place. Right now, conditions just aren’t very favorable for regeneration to occur, especially considering that water temps are marginal at best in the vicinity of the remnant low. However, its presence does mean the chance for heavy, but spotty, rain will persist over the next few days across parts of North and South Carolina, especially the immediate coast. In addition, the risk of rip currents still exists so be sure to check your local surf conditions if heading to the ocean this week. The low is forecast by the major models to slowly move out by the end of the week.

Tomorrow begins the Atlantic hurricane season, at least officially. We have already had two named systems form: Alex in January which became a hurricane, and most recently, Bonnie just off the Southeast coast. Fortunately, there is very little evidence to suggest that this will lead to a hyper-active season for the Atlantic. Since neither system formed from pure tropical origins, we cannot point to them and say with any certainty that they are a harbinger of things to come. The meat of the hurricane season doesn’t begin until late August – if the months leading up to that point feature true tropical development, including any hurricanes, then maybe we can expect a busier season than average. Otherwise, most of the larger, easier to identify puzzle pieces suggest a season with roughly 6 to 8 more hurricanes forming. Out of those it would not be unreasonable to suggest that perhaps 2 or 3 will become category three or higher. There are other less certain aspects of the season that could lead to higher or lower overall numbers, we simply won’t know until we’re about there unfortunately. So, it’s best to be ready for anything. As people witnessed first-hand along parts of I-95 in SC and GA this weekend, even a weak tropical storm can bring mayhem.

Tonight I am producing a special live broadcast for our subscribers and will officially launch the new generation of our 10-year old subscription service. It’s called “HurricaneTrack Insider” and will feature live video, special tracking maps, live weather data, our own chat for members only, exclusive access to newly released videos and updates and more. We’ve had over 450 people become subscribers over the years, the number waxes and wanes with the seasonal hurricane activity but the core group remains – some of whom have been members since day 1 on August 1, 2005. Tonight, we celebrate over 10 years of providing unique, innovative hurricane information unlike anything else out there. The live broadcast will be carried ad-free on our subscriber Ustream channel and begins at 8pm ET for about an hour or so. If you are a current member, please join us and if you can’t we’ll archive it immediately and post the link in the chat. If you wish to become a member or need to sign up again after being away, now is a great time to do so. Click here for more info and to sign up today.

Tomorrow, I will have a special in-depth post on what I see for the coming season and how we plan to cover any potential hurricane landfalls.

M. Sudduth 9:20 AM ET May 31

 

 

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About Mark Sudduth

Greetings! I am Mark Sudduth, the founder and editor of HurricaneTrack.com. The site began in 1999 as a way to post info concerning tropical storms and hurricanes for any interested visitors. Little did I know how big it would become in the years since. Now, we have millions of visitors from all over the world who have come to rely on the site as a no non-sense, tell it like it is resource for all things hurricane related. We are supported by a combination of corporate sponsors and our loyal Client Services members who subscribe to premium content on our sister site, premium.hurricanetrack.com. I am married with six energetic and intelligent children and live in southeast North Carolina. I graduated UNC-Wilmington in 1995 with a BA in Geography and have studied the effects of hurricanes on our society ever since.
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