Gulf Stream aiding in comeback for Bonnie? Also, southern Gulf area to watch in coming days

Tropical depression Bonnie as seen in early morning visible satellite very near the NC Outer Banks

Tropical depression Bonnie as seen in early morning visible satellite very near the NC Outer Banks

The NHC will begin issuing advisories again on what was once TS Bonnie, now a tropical depression again very near the North Carolina Outer Banks.

It seems that the close proximity of the warm Gulf Stream has helped to refuel enough organized convection to aid in the recovery of the system. The main threat will be continued heavy rain and some gusty winds, along with locally rough seas (ocean and sound). I do believe the Hurricane Hunters will be flying a mission in to the area later today and we’ll know more about the wind field at that point. Right now, I am not seeing anything to suggest rapid strengthening though it would not be unreasonable to suggest that Bonnie could attain tropical storm intensity before all is said and done.

Unfortunately, the steering currents are still quite weak across the region and thus Bonnie will be aggravatingly slow to move out. It looks like by later tomorrow, the pesky storm system will finally move on out to sea. Until then, if you have plans to visit the Outer Banks or are there now, just keep in mind the fact that occasional bands of heavy rain will impact the area.

Meanwhile, we will soon need to turn our attention to the southern Gulf of Mexico where it looks like we may see yet another system try to develop some time next week.

Almost all of the reliable computer models are suggesting a broad area of low pressure will develop from energy piling in to the western Caribbean over the next few days. Upper level winds won’t be ideal but water temps are certainly warm enough and there is a decent chance that a tropical depression or even a tropical storm could form and head generally towards Florida.

GFS 850mb map showing energy associated with a broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico in about 5 days

GFS 850mb map showing energy associated with a broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico in about 5 days

One thing to keep in mind, the models are not indicating a very strong system, at least not yet. As an example, I have posted a pic of the overnight GFS model which shows the winds and vorticity (spin in the atmosphere) at the 5,000 foot level or what we all the 850 millibar level. This gives me an idea of how well organized or compact a given storm might be. The more round and “bundled” the energy, the stronger it is likely to be in the real world. Notice in the image, the energy is spread out over a fairly large area, not concentrated and totally symmetrical. This tells me that what ever develops could be more spread out and thus weaker than say a hurricane would be. Obviously this can change but for now, it looks like a lopsided, sheared system with plenty of heavy rain potential, which should never be underrated. From the wind and surge perspective, so far, there is not much to indicate any major issues. I will obviously continue to monitor the situation and will post regular updates here and via my daily video discussions over the coming days.

Last but not least, a tropical depression is likely to form in the east Pacific well to the southwest of Mexico over the next few days. No matter how strong it becomes, the track will be away from land with no impact what so ever for Mexico.

I’ll have more here early this evening on Bonnie and an update on the potential Gulf system as well.

M. Sudduth 8:55 AM June 2

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About Mark Sudduth

Greetings! I am Mark Sudduth, the founder and editor of HurricaneTrack.com. The site began in 1999 as a way to post info concerning tropical storms and hurricanes for any interested visitors. Little did I know how big it would become in the years since. Now, we have millions of visitors from all over the world who have come to rely on the site as a no non-sense, tell it like it is resource for all things hurricane related. We are supported by a combination of corporate sponsors and our loyal Client Services members who subscribe to premium content on our sister site, premium.hurricanetrack.com. I am married with six energetic and intelligent children and live in southeast North Carolina. I graduated UNC-Wilmington in 1995 with a BA in Geography and have studied the effects of hurricanes on our society ever since.
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