Recon had to abort mission in to 97L but doesn’t change outcome for Jamaica and points west

The tropical wave known as 97L still does not have a well defined low level circulation and is thus not a tropical storm as of now. However, the deep thunderstorms associated with it will bring heavy rain to Jamaica tonight

The tropical wave known as 97L still does not have a well defined low level circulation and is thus not a tropical storm as of now. However, the deep thunderstorms associated with it will bring heavy rain to Jamaica tonight

Quick early evening update on 97L.

The Hurricane Hunter plane suffered some mechanical issues and had to return to Mississippi before sampling the tropical wave that is nearing Jamaica. However, just because we don’t know for sure what the winds at the surface are or that the system is or is not a tropical storm doesn’t matter much. The effects for Jamaica will be the same – named storm or not.

So that being said, what can people there expect tonight? The main impact will be periods of heavy rain and squalls as the wave of low pressure and developing surface low passes by. It looks as though the loose center of circulation, what little of it there is right now, will pass south of Jamaica. This means a bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity will rotate over Jamaica, approaching from the north and east.

Fortunately, the wave is still moving briskly to the west at 20 mph or so. This will keep the time period of heavy rain to a minimum but expect some localized flooding – something that is impossible to predict ahead of time in terms of precisely where.

Winds will be nearing tropical storm strength in some of the squalls and at higher elevations. Otherwise, this is a rain event and at least the island will receive some much needed fresh water – just not too much at once hopefully.

After passing Jamaica tonight, the wave should finally strengthen and become a tropical storm. From there, it’s hard to say how strong it might get. Water temps are as warm as they can get really and so it will all come down to the upper environment.

I’ll have more on the system tomorrow morning with posts to Twitter as needed throughout the evening and tonight.

M. Sudduth 5:35 PM ET Aug 1

About Mark Sudduth

Greetings! I am Mark Sudduth, the founder and editor of HurricaneTrack.com. The site began in 1999 as a way to post info concerning tropical storms and hurricanes for any interested visitors. Little did I know how big it would become in the years since. Now, we have millions of visitors from all over the world who have come to rely on the site as a no non-sense, tell it like it is resource for all things hurricane related. We are supported by a combination of corporate sponsors and our loyal Client Services members who subscribe to premium content on our sister site, premium.hurricanetrack.com. I am married with six energetic and intelligent children and live in southeast North Carolina. I graduated UNC-Wilmington in 1995 with a BA in Geography and have studied the effects of hurricanes on our society ever since.
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