The difference between yesterday and now with invest area 97L is impressive. Satellite images show a much better defined area of deep thunderstorms or convection and improving outflow in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The NHC is reporting that winds are already over tropical storm force and that a surface circulation is becoming better defined. It won’t be long now until we have a tropical storm to track – its name will be Earl.
As I have mentioned several times already, water temps in the Caribbean, especially the western portion, are exceedingly warm. Once this storm forms, there won’t be much to hold it back from strengthening up until land interaction in a few days.
As for today, squally weather will begin to impact Jamaica and the Cayman Islands with fringe effects continuing for portions of Hispaniola. By tonight, it is possible that tropical storm conditions will be felt in Jamaica coupled with very heavy rain. The island needs the rain, so as long as it won’t be too much in too short a time period, what would be Earl could bring beneficial moisture to the area.
Strong high pressure to the north of the developing storm will keep it moving generally westward over the coming days. This will not allow the would-be storm to track in to the Gulf of Mexico – at least not until after crossing the Yucatan peninsula. Interests along the east side of the Yucatan need to be monitoring the progress of this system closely. It is possible that this system will go on to become a hurricane, especially considering the very warm water and high amounts of upper ocean heat content in the western Caribbean.
After passing over the Yucatan, depending on how far north the system would be, it could enter the southern Gulf of Mexico and strengthen again before making landfall well south of Texas. We can wait and see how well organized it becomes between now and landfall along the Yucatan before worrying too much about these details. Obviously the more time over land it spends, the harder time it will have intensifying again later on.
Elsewhere in the tropics, the east Pacific refuses to shut down. We now have TS Howard well off the coast of Mexico. It is moving northwest and towards cooler water and a more stable background environment. Howard should not pose any threat to Hawaii and will eventually die out over the open Pacific.
It is now August and in about two weeks, the rapid rise towards the peak of the season begins. If 97L goes on to develop in to a tropical storm and then a hurricane, it would put the season well ahead of where we should be for this time of year. Water temps in the Main Development Region and elsewhere across the western Atlantic are very warm. I have seen several indications that the next 45 to 60 days or so will be very busy in the Atlantic Basin. It’s never a guarantee one way or another, but the signs are difficult to ignore. It’s not the kind of season to sluff off and hope that nothing happens. With no El Nino and its associated strong shear machine cutting across the Atlantic, I feel as though we are in for a busy time going forward. If ever there was a season to be prepared compared to the last few, this is it in my opinion. If I am wrong, everybody on the coast comes out a winner. If I am right, and it’s not like I see this and no one else does, then hurricanes will be making headlines once again for the United States and elsewhere across the western Atlantic Basin.
I will have continuing coverage of 97L with frequent updates posted to Twitter (@hurricanetrack) throughout the day. I will also post a video discussion early this afternoon as well. Follow along in our app too, it’s on the App Store, search Hurricane Impact – all of my Tweets, blog posts and video discussions are posted to the app instantly. Get it and have everything all in one place!
M. Sudduth 10:30 AM ET Aug 1