NHC outlining two areas to watch over the coming days

NHC map showing two areas to watch over the coming days

NHC map showing two areas to watch over the coming days

While the deep tropics remain quiet with no sign of development anytime soon, we do have a couple of areas to monitor farther west, and closer to land.

The first is a disturbance or weak surface trough situated in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. It is nearly stationary for the time being and could form a low pressure area within the next couple of days. However, the main issue here will be the very heavy rain that is forecast by several of the computer models. In some cases, rain could be excessive, especially for portions of Florida, southern Georgia and Alabama as the low pressure area just mills around in the region.

I do not see much chance of this becoming a tropical storm and so wind won’t be a factor but the rain is sure to be. If you live in the area or plan to travel to or through, be advised that the potential exists for flooding rain which will make travel difficult. It is impossible to know precisely which areas will receive the heaviest rain but widespread areas of several inches seems likely for parts of the Florida panhandle and along portions of the western peninsula.

Meanwhile, what was once invest area 96L is back again with convection beginning to develop in an area north of the Leeward Islands.

The NHC indicates only a 20% chance of development over the next few days as it tracks generally west-northwest and eventually turns more north with time.

Several global models develop this system once it gets in to the southwest Atlantic. How strong and how far west remains to be seen but it looks like we just might have something coming together off the Southeast coast sometime next week. It certainly bears watching and it probably won’t be too long until it gets termed as an “invest” once again. At that point, we will begin to see more computer models run on the system and have a better idea of where it will go and what the intensity looks like. Until then, it’s just a vigorous tropical wave that looks to slowly organize.

In the east Pacific, an area of showers and thunderstorms near the coast of Mexico, not far from Manzanillo, will move northwest and merge with the remnants of what was once hurricane Earl in the western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche. The system is expected to develop and track northward towards the Baja peninsula, probably as a tropical storm. Interests in the area should be monitoring closely over the coming days.

I will have a video discussion of all the goings on in the tropics posted later this afternoon followed by another blog post tomorrow morning.

M. Sudduth 10:45 AM ET Aug 6

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About Mark Sudduth

Greetings! I am Mark Sudduth, the founder and editor of HurricaneTrack.com. The site began in 1999 as a way to post info concerning tropical storms and hurricanes for any interested visitors. Little did I know how big it would become in the years since. Now, we have millions of visitors from all over the world who have come to rely on the site as a no non-sense, tell it like it is resource for all things hurricane related. We are supported by a combination of corporate sponsors and our loyal Client Services members who subscribe to premium content on our sister site, premium.hurricanetrack.com. I am married with six energetic and intelligent children and live in southeast North Carolina. I graduated UNC-Wilmington in 1995 with a BA in Geography and have studied the effects of hurricanes on our society ever since.
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