Tropics about to get quite busy as we head deeper in to August

Satellite image of the eastern Atlantic where TS Fiona is moving out over open water. We are also watching for more tropical wave energy just off the coast of Africa for possible development.

Satellite image of the eastern Atlantic where TS Fiona is moving out over open water. We are also watching for more tropical wave energy just off the coast of Africa for possible development.

There are indications that things are going to be busier and busier over the coming days and weeks as far as the Atlantic Basin goes. You may recall that the east Pacific was producing storm after storm, with a few hurricanes thrown in too, back in July? While I do not see that much activity coming, I do think there is potential for several more development areas over the next two weeks.

First up is tropical storm Fiona. Obviously this system poses no threat to land and probably won’t as it moves generally northwestward over the open Atlantic.

The combination of dry mid-level air being ingested from time to time and some stronger upper level winds will likely keep Fiona from becoming too strong. Water temps gradually increase out ahead of the storm and if the background environment changes enough, the chance for it to become a hurricane is there. However, this would only affecting shipping lanes and add to the ACE score for the season. I just don’t see any reason right now to be concerned with Fiona directly impacting land.

As we watch Fiona, we also need to monitor activity just off the African coast for possible development down the road. Computer models are suggesting the possibility of additional development from one or two more tropical waves over the next five to seven days. This would be the most active the MDR or Main Development Region has been for quite some time. It also fits in perfectly with the time of year we are in as the latter part of August tends to see an increase in potential for development across much of the tropical Atlantic.

Meanwhile, the east Pacific will likely have a new named storm before too long. The NHC is tracking invest area 97-E well off the coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this to continue to develop and become a tropical storm as it moves northwest but off shore of Mexico and the Baja peninsula.

I will have more in my video discussion which will be posted here and to our app, Hurricane Impact, later this afternoon – followed by more blog coverage here tomorrow morning.

M. Sudduth 10:20 AM ET Aug 18

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About Mark Sudduth

Greetings! I am Mark Sudduth, the founder and editor of HurricaneTrack.com. The site began in 1999 as a way to post info concerning tropical storms and hurricanes for any interested visitors. Little did I know how big it would become in the years since. Now, we have millions of visitors from all over the world who have come to rely on the site as a no non-sense, tell it like it is resource for all things hurricane related. We are supported by a combination of corporate sponsors and our loyal Client Services members who subscribe to premium content on our sister site, premium.hurricanetrack.com. I am married with six energetic and intelligent children and live in southeast North Carolina. I graduated UNC-Wilmington in 1995 with a BA in Geography and have studied the effects of hurricanes on our society ever since.

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