Latest intensity guidance nudges up a little with Hermine – could become a hurricane before landfall

Hermine intensity guidance from the 00z set of intensity models. Here we see a slight overall increase in several of the models which might be enough to bring Hermine to hurricane strength before landfall tomorrow night.

Hermine intensity guidance from the 00z set of intensity models. Here we see a slight overall increase in several of the models which might be enough to bring Hermine to hurricane strength before landfall tomorrow night.

Wanted to post this graphic – it shows the latest intensity guidance from most of the reliable (and not so reliable) models for Hermine. Notice the fairly quick ramp up by several, inducing the consensus IVCN (red line mixed in there) which appears to be just  in to category one hurricane strength.

I think it will all come down to whether Hermine can stop shedding energy away from itself and instead, pull it in and bundle it around a solid core structure. So far, it has not done so very well and as such the pressure is not falling very quickly. Until and unless we see it consolidate better, it will only slowly intensify which would minimize the wind impacts overall.

On the other hand, storm surge from Hermine will be there no matter what. The storm is pushing a lot of water towards the NE Gulf – in the direction it is moving generally speaking. This will pile it up against the shallow coastline and allow several feet of inundation to take place in some areas. I urge you to consult your local NWS office at weather.gov for the latest hurricane local statement put out by that LOCAL office.

I am in Lake City, FL and will be heading out early tomorrow morning to begin deploying a series of unmanned live camera units. Once they are up I will post the links on a temporary new homepage set up just for the storm event. If you are following along in our app, Hurricane Impact, be sure to check the Twitter tab often as I can easily post pics and comments on what is going on where I am. I’ll also post video updates to the video section throughout the day tomorrow and in to tomorrow night.

M. Sudduth 10pm ET Aug 31

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About Mark Sudduth

Greetings! I am Mark Sudduth, the founder and editor of HurricaneTrack.com. The site began in 1999 as a way to post info concerning tropical storms and hurricanes for any interested visitors. Little did I know how big it would become in the years since. Now, we have millions of visitors from all over the world who have come to rely on the site as a no non-sense, tell it like it is resource for all things hurricane related. We are supported by a combination of corporate sponsors and our loyal Client Services members who subscribe to premium content on our sister site, premium.hurricanetrack.com. I am married with six energetic and intelligent children and live in southeast North Carolina. I graduated UNC-Wilmington in 1995 with a BA in Geography and have studied the effects of hurricanes on our society ever since.
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