Wanted to post this graphic – it shows the latest intensity guidance from most of the reliable (and not so reliable) models for Hermine. Notice the fairly quick ramp up by several, inducing the consensus IVCN (red line mixed in there) which appears to be just in to category one hurricane strength.
I think it will all come down to whether Hermine can stop shedding energy away from itself and instead, pull it in and bundle it around a solid core structure. So far, it has not done so very well and as such the pressure is not falling very quickly. Until and unless we see it consolidate better, it will only slowly intensify which would minimize the wind impacts overall.
On the other hand, storm surge from Hermine will be there no matter what. The storm is pushing a lot of water towards the NE Gulf – in the direction it is moving generally speaking. This will pile it up against the shallow coastline and allow several feet of inundation to take place in some areas. I urge you to consult your local NWS office at weather.gov for the latest hurricane local statement put out by that LOCAL office.
I am in Lake City, FL and will be heading out early tomorrow morning to begin deploying a series of unmanned live camera units. Once they are up I will post the links on a temporary new homepage set up just for the storm event. If you are following along in our app, Hurricane Impact, be sure to check the Twitter tab often as I can easily post pics and comments on what is going on where I am. I’ll also post video updates to the video section throughout the day tomorrow and in to tomorrow night.
M. Sudduth 10pm ET Aug 31