Karl headed out as we focus on next system

Satellite image showing low pressure area over eastern Atlantic. Most of the global computer models suggest it will gradually develop over the next several days as it moves west.

Satellite image showing low pressure area over eastern Atlantic. Most of the global computer models suggest it will gradually develop over the next several days as it moves west.

Karl passed within about 60 miles of Bermuda in the over night hours bringing tropical storm conditions to the area. The storm is now moving away and will do so with increasing forward speed throughout the weekend. Winds and seas will subside and by sunset this evening, it will be quite gorgeous in Bermuda. There is still a chance that Karl becomes a hurricane over the open Atlantic but it will only be an issue for shipping lanes.

As we say goodbye to Karl, we will need to become more and more vigilant as we monitor a tropical wave and low pressure area moving across the deep tropics. This one has potential for becoming a strong hurricane at some point as all signs point to a change in the conditions that have been preventing the storms this season from reaching their full potential.

The GFS model in particular has been extremely consistent with its run to run depiction of a gradually developing tropical cyclone headed right for the eastern Caribbean Sea. We’re not talking five or seven days out any longer, this looks like it could happen as early as Monday with a possible tropical storm threatening the Windward Islands.

Right now, satellite data indicates¬† a large area of energy associated with a tropical wave that moved off of Africa a couple of days ago. The moisture content is high, also known as precipitable water. There is increasing vorticity meaning spin in the atmosphere and water temperatures are plenty warm. I see no reason to believe that this system won’t develop as it moves steadily west over the coming days. In fact, the NHC is now indicating a 50% chance of development over the next five days and says that a tropical depression could form as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

NHC graphical outlook map showing the increasing chance for development of eastern Atlantic tropical wave as it moves west towards the Caribbean Sea.

NHC graphical outlook map showing the increasing chance for development of eastern Atlantic tropical wave as it moves west towards the Caribbean Sea.

For now my concern is for the Lesser Antilles and specifically the Windward Islands. It is impossible to know which area could see the most significant impacts from a system that has not even developed yet. This one looks like the real deal and as such, interests in the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean as a whole need to be paying attention to this feature. Even if it is slower to develop than the GFS is indicating, the threat of heavy rain seems to be almost a certainty at this point. Anything beyond that will be determined by just how quickly it organizes over the next few days.

I will be watching this system very closely. Look for an in-depth video discussion to be posted later this afternoon here, our YouTube channel and to our app.

M. Sudduth 7:30 AM ET Sept 24

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About Mark Sudduth

Greetings! I am Mark Sudduth, the founder and editor of HurricaneTrack.com. The site began in 1999 as a way to post info concerning tropical storms and hurricanes for any interested visitors. Little did I know how big it would become in the years since. Now, we have millions of visitors from all over the world who have come to rely on the site as a no non-sense, tell it like it is resource for all things hurricane related. We are supported by a combination of corporate sponsors and our loyal Client Services members who subscribe to premium content on our sister site, premium.hurricanetrack.com. I am married with six energetic and intelligent children and live in southeast North Carolina. I graduated UNC-Wilmington in 1995 with a BA in Geography and have studied the effects of hurricanes on our society ever since.
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