It has been a strange year for Atlantic hurricane activity. So many sputtering, long-lived but relatively weak systems have formed with minimal impact overall to land areas. Luck has been kind to us for sure but I am not so sure it can hold out for much longer.
We should have a tropical depression or possibly even a tropical storm by later today just east of the Windward Islands. We will know a lot more once the Hurricane Hunters fly out late today for on-site info from the low pressure area. Right now, it certainly looks like it is well on its way to developing but it needs a defined low level center of circulation and the recon crew can confirm whether or not that exists.
Whether or not this becomes a tropical depression or a storm before reaching the Windward Islands will not change the outcome for that region very much. Squally weather will move in beginning later tomorrow with tropical storm conditions likely across a good deal of the Windwards, especially to the north of where the center passes. Expect heavy rain, gusty winds and building seas as the low pressure area moves in.
Once past the islands, what should be Matthew at that point will have an opportunity to strengthen and become a hurricane. The upper ocean heat content in the Caribbean Sea is ample and could support a very intense hurricane if upper level winds allow.
As far as where the system tracks over the next five to seven days? More than likely, we’ll see a westward movement in to the central Caribbean not too far north off the coast of South America. As such, the so-called ABC islands could feel some impacts from this system. We simply need to wait and see to know the depth of those impacts as the week progresses.
Obviously areas such as Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands should all be watching the progress of this system very closely. Before any possible impacts along the U.S. coast would happen, the islands along the northern Caribbean could be hit first. There’s no question about it, the next few days will be full of anxious moments as we wait and see how the steering pattern evolves.
A lot of talk has been made of recent runs of the GFS model which takes the storm/hurricane north out of the Caribbean and along or just off the U.S. East Coast. With a huge area of high pressure building over Canada and the Northeast this could be a bad scenario for a large stretch of coastline. But will it happen this way? It is impossible to know right now. Other model guidance shows a slower moving system that tracks farther to the west with potential tracks in to the Gulf of Mexico. Split the difference and Florida becomes a target.
So what do we do? My advice: just keep up to date with the latest info and be ready to react if this comes your way. No one has the answer right now. I sure don’t. It’s just like last year at this same time ironically when Joaquin was a threat to the Mid-Atlantic according to the American generated models. You remember that duel right? The Euro was the outlier it seemed and yet it turned out to be correct and Joaquin missed the United States. Right now we simply don’t have enough to go on in terms of making a forecast of where this ends up in a week to ten days. As I often say, it’s hurricane season and people should be ready for anything no matter what.
M. Sudduth 12:45 PM ET Sept 27