The east Pacific hurricane season has begun with the formation of TS Adrian south of the Central American coastline. It is forecast to become a hurricane over the next few days as it moves fairly slowly off to the northwest. For the time being, Adrian poses no threat to land areas and its slow movement means that there will be plenty of time to monitor how the steering pattern shapes up and thus what the eventual track may be.
Global models are in general agreement that Adrian will eventually turn more to the north and perhaps back to the northeast sometime next week. We will just have to wait and see how this plays out since it looks like a complicated pattern developing which will mean a slow movement. Interests along the Pacific side of Central America and southeast Mexico should be monitoring the progress of Adrian, especially since it is forecast to become a solid hurricane within the next few days.
Speaking of intensity, most of the guidance suggests that the storm will in fact become a hurricane. Curiously, the HWRF model shows very little strengthening while the global models are more robust. With plenty of warm water and fairly light upper level winds, Adrian is more than likely going to intensify but again, it will remain well off the coast and should not pose a direct threat to land for now.
I’ll have continuing posts regarding the future track and intensity forecasts for Adrian over the next several days.
M. Sudduth 8:30 AM ET May 10