Any chance of El Niño during Atlantic hurricane season is almost gone

I wrote about this in a recent blog post and so I thought it prudent to do a follow-up piece regarding the chances of El Niño making an appearance during the next few months.

Well, they say a picture is worth a thousand words…

Subsurface temperature anomalies along the equatorial Pacific as of June 2

Subsurface temperature anomalies along the equatorial Pacific as of June 2, 2017. Notice the lack of positive anomalies (yellow-orange-red) anywhere across the tropical Pacific. It’s mostly neutral for the time being.

 

Just looking at the most recent subsurface anomalies chart that was updated on June 2, we see that there is virtually no warm pool left in the tropical Pacific west of about 150 degrees longitude. The only positive anomaly, or warmer than normal area, is in the eastern Pacific and even here we’re talking about only a degree C at the most. To break it down in to simple terms: no El Niño anytime soon, if at all in 2017.

What does this mean for the Atlantic season? It means that we are likely to see less of the hurricane-inhibiting wind shear across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. That, in turn, should result in a busier season than we have seen in quite some time. It’s no guarantee as there are certainly other factors at play but the lack of El Niño is often seen as a significant enhancing signal for Atlantic hurricane activity.

We will get a new set of ensemble model plots from the ECMWF, which is often regarded as the model of choice, that will give us an update on its “thoughts” for the coming months. That model was quite aggressive in developing an El Niño going all the way back to the early winter months. We’ll see if it has seen the light, so to speak, and has backed off like other modeling has in recent weeks. I’ll keep an eye out for that new data and will include in during a future video discussion, so be on the lookout for that.

In summary, I think it is safe to say that El Niño will not be a factor this season and that, in and of itself, is reason enough to take the 2017 Atlantic hurricane quite seriously. We should be doing so any season but perhaps this time around, there may be more to it than normal. Time will tell.

M. Sudduth 8:20 AM ET June 7

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About Mark Sudduth

Greetings! I am Mark Sudduth, the founder and editor of HurricaneTrack.com. The site began in 1999 as a way to post info concerning tropical storms and hurricanes for any interested visitors. Little did I know how big it would become in the years since. Now, we have millions of visitors from all over the world who have come to rely on the site as a no non-sense, tell it like it is resource for all things hurricane related. We are supported by a combination of corporate sponsors and our loyal Client Services members who subscribe to premium content on our sister site, premium.hurricanetrack.com. I am married with six energetic and intelligent children and live in southeast North Carolina. I graduated UNC-Wilmington in 1995 with a BA in Geography and have studied the effects of hurricanes on our society ever since.
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