July is starting off quite busy with areas to watch in both the Atlantic Basin and the east Pacific. Fortunately, none of the systems pose any threat to land and I do not see that changing anytime soon.
The east Pacific system, designated as invest area 94-E is situated well to the southwest off the coast of Mexico and is forecast by the model guidance to continue moving westward and away from land. It may eventually become a tropical storm over the open Pacific but the cooler water temps out ahead of it will be a challenge. None of the intensity models indicate that 94-E will become a hurricane, something that is unusual for this part of the east Pacific but a sign that conditions are not as favorable out that way this season.
In the Atlantic, we are keeping a close eye on invest area 94-L which is located in the deep tropics, about mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The NHC is giving it a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next five days. Curiously, the system is not moving much right now, which is rare to see in the deep tropics in early July. Normally the trades are quite strong across the region and we see tropical waves moving westward at 15-20 mph or faster. The fact that 94-L is moving so slowly indicates that conditions in the tropical Atlantic are quite different than we have seen in recent years – meaning that things are much more favorable for development even this early in July.
I have produced a video discussion covering these topics and more. Check it out via the YouTube video below.
M. Sudduth 1:45 pm July 4, 2017