For Florida and the Southeast U.S., track will literally mean everything

Updated: 9 AM ET Sept 7

Hurricane Irma is now moving just north of the Dominican Republic as a category five on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. I suspect that it will weaken some as it has some disruption of the core and overall circulation due to the proximity to the Greater Antilles (Hispaniola and Cuba). However, in another couple of days, Irma will be passing over some of the warmest, highest ocean heat content around and could be the strongest it has ever been.

The track forecast is complicated not so much because of any great spread in the models but because every mile will make a difference in terms of where the greatest impacts are felt.

For the next couple of days, the Turks & Caicos along with the remainder of much of the Bahamas will feel the brunt of Irma’s fury – again, exactly where the core crosses will determine the which areas receive the highest wind and storm surge.

I am about to head out from Wilmington, NC to Florida to possibly set up specialized equipment there to monitor the conditions. I have produced a video discussion going over the latest model output from the ECMWF and GFS – with interesting and important comparions/contrasts between the two.

I will be streaming live as I travel via this link:

Live Cam from HurricaneTrack Chevy Tahoe

M. Sudduth


About Mark Sudduth

Greetings! I am Mark Sudduth, the founder and editor of The site began in 1999 as a way to post info concerning tropical storms and hurricanes for any interested visitors. Little did I know how big it would become in the years since. Now, we have millions of visitors from all over the world who have come to rely on the site as a no non-sense, tell it like it is resource for all things hurricane related. We are supported by a combination of corporate sponsors and our loyal Client Services members who subscribe to premium content on our sister site, I am married with six energetic and intelligent children and live in southeast North Carolina. I graduated UNC-Wilmington in 1995 with a BA in Geography and have studied the effects of hurricanes on our society ever since.
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