11 AM ET Saturday Sept 23
Maria is holding its own as a category three hurricane this morning. The track continues off generally to the north with wobbles to the west and wobbles to the east from time to time.
The latest from the NHC suggests that the westward shifts in the model guidance is continuing and there is now a chance that Maria brings “direct impacts” to the NC coast this coming week.
What does that mean exactly? Well, you do not have to have the eye cross the coast for there to be significant flooding, storm surge and hurricane force winds. Those would all be direct impacts – even if the eye were to remain offshore by 30-50 miles.
I am going to put together a detailed video discussion and post it here later this afternoon – I want to first see the 12z GFS and ECMWF and compare the two. Those models will complete their runs by 2:30 pm ET or so and I will have the video posted here by 4pm ET.
For now, get ready for more big-time swells to head in to the Southeast and eventually up the East Coast as Maria tracks closer over the coming days.