Chances of Maria impacting NC coast going up – could be very close

11 AM ET Saturday Sept 23

Maria is holding its own as a category three hurricane this morning. The track continues off generally to the north with wobbles to the west and wobbles to the east from time to time.

5 day NHC tracking map

5 day NHC tracking map

The latest from the NHC suggests that the westward shifts in the model guidance is continuing and there is now a chance that Maria brings “direct impacts” to the NC coast this coming week.

What does that mean exactly? Well, you do not have to have the eye cross the coast for there to be significant flooding, storm surge and hurricane force winds. Those would all be direct impacts – even if the eye were to remain offshore by 30-50 miles.

I am going to put together a detailed video discussion and post it here later this afternoon – I want to first see the 12z GFS and ECMWF and compare the two. Those models will complete their runs by 2:30 pm ET or so and I will have the video posted here by 4pm ET.

For now, get ready for more big-time swells to head in to the Southeast and eventually up the East Coast as Maria tracks closer over the coming days.

M. Sudduth

 

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About Mark Sudduth

Greetings! I am Mark Sudduth, the founder and editor of HurricaneTrack.com. The site began in 1999 as a way to post info concerning tropical storms and hurricanes for any interested visitors. Little did I know how big it would become in the years since. Now, we have millions of visitors from all over the world who have come to rely on the site as a no non-sense, tell it like it is resource for all things hurricane related. We are supported by a combination of corporate sponsors and our loyal Client Services members who subscribe to premium content on our sister site, premium.hurricanetrack.com. I am married with six energetic and intelligent children and live in southeast North Carolina. I graduated UNC-Wilmington in 1995 with a BA in Geography and have studied the effects of hurricanes on our society ever since.
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