9:15 AM ET October 16
Just look at that satellite photo of what was at one time category three hurricane Ophelia. Quite impressive to say the least! Unfortunately, Ireland is underneath those swirling clouds and reports are that more than 100,000 people are without power as a result of the storm.
Ophelia transitioned from a concentrated warm-core hurricane to a more spread out ocean storm with energy being derived from the processes of the atmosphere more so than those of heat being drawn out of the ocean – as a hurricane would do. In the end, the results are almost the same: strong wind (possibly reaching hurricane force in some areas), storm surge and high waves at the coast along with periods of heavy rain.
Luckily for Ireland and eventually the northwest portions of the United Kingdom, Ophelia is moving very fast and the low pressure area will fill quickly, bringing a swift end to the storm by this time tomorrow.
Meanwhile, we are watching invest area 92L to the north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Right now, it is very disorganized and is likely to remain that way as it moves generally off to the north and west for today and tomorrow followed by a turn towards the northeast as a strong cold front pushes off the East Coast.
Upper level winds and the interaction with the approaching frontal system will mean that 92L has little chance of becoming a tropical storm but it is likely to bring rain and an increase in wind for Bermuda over the next few days.
Outside of that, long range model guidance suggests one more area of interest could develop in about a week to ten days down in the western Caribbean. All of the reliable global computer models show a lowering of pressures in the region as a favorable MJO pattern moves through. This means conditions would be more favorable for upward motion and thus tropical thunderstorms to develop and possibly lead to another storm taking shape. It’s too soon to know for sure if this is going to happen but the signs are beginning to show within the models and as such, and considering the climatology of the region, we should pay close attention over the coming days.
I go over all of this and more in today’s video discussion posted below.