For invest area 90L, think rain not wind or surge issues

NHC 5-day tropical weather outlook map showing invest area 90L and the probable area for future development. The main issue will be heavy rain which we will need to monitor closely.

NHC 5-day tropical weather outlook map showing invest area 90L and the probable area for future development.

The Atlantic hurricane season does not officially begin until June 1 but once again, we have a pre-season system to keep watch of. This seems to be the norm more often than not as of recent years. I suppose Mother Nature is simply not interested in man-made schedules.

As of this morning with the 8am ET special outlook message, the National Hurricane Center says that the system remains broad and loosely organized with plenty of dry air and strong upper level winds around to keep it from developing much anytime soon. There is perhaps a chance that it will become a little better organized once it moves in to the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days where water temps are only marginally favorable for development. This fact, coupled with strong upper level winds, should keep 90L from becoming much better organized once it reaches the Gulf later this week and in to the long holiday weekend ahead.

5 day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center showing a large area of potentially heavy rain for portions of Florida and the Southeast U.S. It is important to keep up with local information from the NWS and local media as this event unfolds since localized heavy rain chances will be impossible to predict more than a few hours out.

5 day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center showing a large area of potentially heavy rain for portions of Florida and the Southeast U.S. It is important to keep up with local information from the NWS and local media as this event unfolds since localized heavy rain chances will be impossible to predict more than a few hours out.

The main issue with this feature, as is usually the case with early season development, will be rain and perhaps a lot of it. A large area of high moisture content in the lower levels of the atmosphere will lead to plenty of rain for portions of western Cuba, the Cayman Islands and even Florida over the next several days as the low moves slowly northward and in to the Gulf of Mexico. Some areas could receive several inches of rain which could lead to localized flooding issues, especially within areas that have seen a lot of rain in recent days.

In terms of other impacts, I really do not see much of an opportunity for 90L to strengthen beyond maybe a weak tropical storm wind-wise. We may see some stronger winds eventually that could lead to onshore flow and minor coastal flooding along the Gulf Coast this weekend but the bigger issue, I believe, is going to be the rain. It is impossible to pinpoint who will receive the most rain and when it will occur. For now, we need to just monitor the progress of this rather sprawling area of low pressure and pay attention to local NWS products concerning future flood issues, etc.

I will post a detailed video discussion concerning 90L later this afternoon which will include the latest morning model data. Elsewhere, things are nice and quiet and this includes the eastern Pacific as well.

M. Sudduth 9:15 AM ET May 22

About Mark Sudduth

Greetings! I am Mark Sudduth, the founder and editor of HurricaneTrack.com. The site began in 1999 as a way to post info concerning tropical storms and hurricanes for any interested visitors. Little did I know how big it would become in the years since. Now, we have millions of visitors from all over the world who have come to rely on the site as a no non-sense, tell it like it is resource for all things hurricane related. We are supported by a combination of corporate sponsors and our loyal Client Services members who subscribe to premium content on our sister site, premium.hurricanetrack.com. I am married with six energetic and intelligent children and live in southeast North Carolina. I graduated UNC-Wilmington in 1995 with a BA in Geography and have studied the effects of hurricanes on our society ever since.
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