The model guidance trended a little stronger during the overnight hours last night in regards to the eventual strength of invest area 90L. This means there is a pretty solid chance now that we will see either hybrid type storm (subtropical storm) or a purely tropical storm – in either case, a lot of rain and some coastal impacts are likely for portions of the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida.
As of this morning, the NHC indicates a 40% chance of 90L becoming at least depression-strength over the next 48 hours. If we look to the next five days, those odds increase to 80%. From the looks of things, we very well may have another out-of-season named storm to deal with.
The timing is not good for obvious reasons as the unofficial start to summer begins this weekend and Memorial Day Monday. Unfortunately, 90L and what ever it evolves in to over the coming days will put a big damper on things for a lot of people.
Right now, it is too soon to pinpoint precisely what locations will receive any impacts from this system. I think we will have to wait until later tomorrow when the model guidance suggests we get a developed low pressure area more consolidated in the southern Gulf of Mexico. At that point, the idea of what impacts and which locations will receive those impacts will become more clear.
What we know right now is that excessive rain is headed for a good portion of the eastern Gulf Coast region from southeast Louisiana over to the Florida panhandle and peninsula. This will also extend inland over parts of the Southeast as the low moves north and eventually inland early next week. I cannot emphasize it enough: the potential for flooding, life-threatening rain is on the table and this needs to be taken extremely seriously. It is impossible to predict which locations will receive the highest rain totals so everyone in the region should be monitoring the progress of this developing situation.
I will produce a video discussion concerning this system later on this afternoon and will go over the various computer models and what the most likely scenarios are. For now, we wait and see as the broad area of low pressure moves slowly along the Yucatan in the northwest Caribbean Sea, spreading showers and thunderstorms along the area.
M. Sudduth 8:10 AM ET May 24