Invest area 98L has become more organized today with an increase in convection or thunderstorm activity. This will help to give it a boost and could possibly lead to the development of a tropical depression or tropical storm before it turns north and eventually away from the Mid-Atlantic coast.
The NHC indicates an even split of 50/50 for development chances and mentions stronger upper level winds that are forecast to move in to the region by Wednesday. I think that between now and then, we could very well see a tropical storm form from this system which does have some remnant energy from hurricane Florence mixed in to its “DNA”. Whether or not the NHC calls it Florence again remains to be seen – I am glad I don’t have to make that decision, that’s for sure.
The bottom line is that interests along the NC coast, especially the Outer Banks, need to watch this system closely throughout the next 2-3 days. I expect an increase in showers with periods of heavy rain along with gusty winds from time to time. With the recent full moon, any onshore flow will just make high tide periods even worse.
I am actually heading back to Rodanthe tomorrow to pick up my camera box that was set out almost two weeks ago now for the arrival of Florence. I guess it will now be a gear retrieval/field mission combo.
As for the rest of the tropics, we have very little to worry about in terms of impacts to land over the next few days although we will need to monitor the progress of Kirk’s remnant energy as we may see it also make a comeback before reaching the Lesser Antilles.
I highlight all of this and more in my latest video discussion below.