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TROPICS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AS NHC OUTLINES TWO AREAS OF INTEREST As I mentioned yesterday, changes appear in the works as the tropics transition from being hostile for development towards more conducive. The NHC now has two areas outlined for potential tropical storm formation though both are currently low in terms of probability. The long range computer models continue to demonstrate a fairly solid consensus that we may see two storms form within the next week to 10 days. Right now, there is little to be concerned with but it is a great time to review your hurricane plan, talk to your insurance agent, find out exactly what your policy covers, check your generator, things like that. As we get in to August, just going on climatology alone, one wouuld expect an uptick in hurricane activity. Be ready for it as no one knows exactly where anything that does develop will track. We all need to be as ready as can be. I will have more here tomorrow morning. UPDATED: 10:30 am EDT, July 28, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WEEK OF QUIET AND THEN IT IS TIME Changes are coming. After a nice and quiet period, relatively speaking, since Alex, it appears that August will become quite busy. The evidence to suggest this is seen in the various global computer models which all develop African tropical waves beginning next week. The upper levels are relaxing with less and less shear, water temps are plenty warm and the large outbreaks of Saharan dust are diminishing. All of this is to be expected this time of year and comes as no surprise. There is no reason to speculate on where any future development might impact, it's just too far out in time to worry about things like that. The bottom line is that we are about to begin the most active part of the hurricane season. If you're not ready for it, now is a good time to re-evaluate your plans. Speaking of next week, I will be traveling to the central Gulf Coast on Wednesday for a unique live video tour of the Mississippi coast on Thursday and then New Orleans on Friday. Kathleen Koch, who was our guest last night on HurricaneTrack News/Talk, has written a book titled Rising from Katrina. It chronicles the remarkable efforts that have been made to bring the Mississippi coast back from the brink of total destruction in the wake of hurricane Katrina- now almost five years ago. Kathleen will accompany me on this video tour as we travel from Jackson county, through Harrison county and finally ending up in Hancock county where she spent a good deal of her childhood. You are invited to join us for this virtual tour of the region. The live event will be playing right here on the homepage. Our Premium Services members may follow along as well and chat with us through the exclusive chat interface that we have set up. Then, on Thursday evening, I am hosting a meet and greet in D'Iberville at the Outback Steakhouse. Anyone in the area is welcome to come out, interact with other people who we have come to know over the years through the site or our work in Mississippi. See our Facebook page for more info. UPDATED: 10:30 am EDT, July 27, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me REMEMBERING KATRINA IN A SPECIAL WAY Next month will mark five years since hurricane Katrina made history. Five long years. So much has happened since that fateful day yet the portions of the central Gulf Coast that were impacted so severely have moved forward as best they could. While progress has most certainly been made, there is still much to do and much pain lingers. Katrina will be the subject of tonight's edition of HurricaneTrack News/Talk. Our guest will be Kathleen Koch- former CNN Washington, D.C. correspondent and author of the new book Rising from Katrina. It tells numerous stories of how not only her hometown of Bay St. Louis has dealt with the aftermath, but also how the entire Mississippi coast has picked itself up to start anew in the wake of such a devastating event. The program begins at 9pm ET tonight right here on the homepage and if you cannot listen in (and watch too, as we'll have numerous photos from the book displayed on the video broadcast), it will be archived via our Ustream channel. Next week, on Thursday, August 5th, Kathleen will join me along the Mississippi coast for an incredible ride along as I travel on Hwy 90 from Biloxi to Waveland all the while streaming live video/audio. Kathleen will narrate what she sees and feels as we make the trek along the newly paved route that once was populated with some of the most prestigous homes in the South. Now, there are more concrete slabs, overgrown with weeds, than homes and businesses- though the region is making a comeback. Kathleen and I will openly talk about what it was like for us to deal with Katrina in our own capacities as it related to our work. The journey will last for about three hours, ending in Waveland and Bay St. Louis, ground zero for the worst of Katrina's storm surge. I hope you can join us for this unique live event which will be broadcast over our Ustream channel right here on the homepage. We will talk more about it tonight on HurricaneTrack News/Talk. As for the tropics- things are quiet as we round out July and it looks to stay that way for at least the next five days. Beyond that time, there are indications that the pattern will evolve to one more conducive for development. August and September are traditionally very busy months, no matter what the forecast is for the season. I have little doubt that things are going to pick up dramatically by the middle of next month. For now, though, things remain tranquil and that is good news, we'll take it. UPDATED: 10:30 am EDT, July 25, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me QUIET START TO THE WEEK It looks as though things will be fairly quiet this week in the tropics. Once again, I see nothing in the global computer models to suggest any significant development across the Atlantic Basin. There is some deep convection blossoming in the western Caribbean Sea and this region has been the main incubator for development this season. Overall, we are in a pattern not conducive for tropical storm formation but that is likely going to change once we get in to early August. For this week, it looks to be calm out there. Tomorrow night on HurricaneTrack News/Talk, our guest will be Kathleen Koch, former award-winning CNN correspondent who covered the White House- and the ocassional hurricane. One such hurricane was Katrina. Kathleen has written a book about the Mississippi coast and how the region has dealt with the aftermath of this historic hurricane. We will discuss her own experiences with Katrina, starting with the first email that went out indicating that she would be covering the event at all. Join us tomorrow night, 9pm ET right here on the homepage for an incredible coversation with Kathleen Koch as we approach the five year anniversary of hurricane Katrina. UPDATED: 10:20 am EDT, July 23, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me BONNIE BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT NOT MUCH ELSE As expected, the main issue with TS Bonnie is rain. Heavy tropical rains have been falling across portions of south Florida since early this morning and more is on the way. The center of Bonnie is nearing Biscayne Bay with squalls and some embedded thunderstorms reaching up the coast towards Ft. Lauderdale and westward to Naples. The bands of rain will rotate counter-clockwise around Bonnie's weak circulation as the entire system moves westward across the region. I cannot emphasize it enough that people should be mindful of this heavy rain potential and slow down while driving. It will all be over by later tonight. As for the Gulf edition of Bonnie, it should be a non-issue overall. In fact, do not be surprised if Bonnie simply opens up to a tropical wave and moves across the Gulf with little deep convection. Conditions simply are not favorable right now which spells great news for many along the anxious northern Gulf Coast. We'll see what the NHC says in its next update but I am not expecting Bonnie to accomplish much after its trek across Florida. UPDATED: 10:45 pm EDT, July 22, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me THE BONNIE SITUATION The second named storm of the season is not looking very healthy tonight. This is a result of the fairly negative environment that it is embedded within. Strong upper level winds are the main factor limiting development and this spells excellent news for south Florida and beyond. Just looking at satellite photos, it is easy to see that the storm is spread out and not consolidated like we have seen with other notable systems in the past. In fact, it would not be surprising to see the storm pretty much completely weaken as it moves closer to the Florida coast tomorrow. As I have mentioned already, the main issue that Floridians, as well as folks in the Bahamas, will deal with is the heavy tropical rains that are typical of any tropical cyclone. Beyond that, this will not amount to much more than an interesting weather day for the region. Beyond Florida, it looks as though Bonnie could open up in to a tropical wave again although the forecast calls for it to maintain storm intensity. You never say never with tropical systems but this one looks to be quite benign when all is said and done. I'll have more on Bonnie and the rest of the tropics tomorrow morning. UPDATED: 4:55 pm EDT, July 22, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me TD #3 STILL RATHER DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS A Hurricane Hunter crew has been flying through tropical depression three this afternoon and their observations, coupled with satellite imagery, indicates that the depression is still disorganized. The culprit in this case is a persistent upper level low pressure area imparting strong winds aloft over the cyclone. This prevents it from developing and maintaining deep thunderstorms which in turn drive the lowering of surface pressures and thus the chain reaction. However, the shearing winds could relax some tomorrow and allow the depression to become a tropical storm. It won't matter much as far as wind goes as the main hazard will be tropical rain fall across a good deal of south Florida. This should not be taken lightly, I cannot emphasize that enough. We have huge population centers with the potential for torrential rains over the next day or so. Be careful and mindful of this situation. Once past Florida, the depression or storm will head in to the southeast Gulf of Mexico. None of the sophisticated computer models indicate much chance of it strengthening but this cannot be ruled out. The main issue will again be the potential for heavy rains across portions of Louisiana and Texas. There should be little in the way of major impact to the oil disaster region although the system will stir up the Gulf and cause some disruption in the efforts to clean up the mess. The other concern is for Mexico and 98L. This system has great potential for dumping very heavy rains over areas flooded by Alex and TD2. Although not a classified tropical cyclone, it will bring deep moisture to Mexico and south Texas over the next couple of days. There is still a window of opportunity for this to develop in to a depression or storm before reaching Mexico later tomorrow. The season is beginning to get busy and keeping up to date on the latest info is important. I'll have several postings here each day but urge you to make use of several different resources that you trust for hurricane info. I'll post more here by 11pm ET tonight. UPDATED: 11:30 am EDT, July 22, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me 97L BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE The NHC is now issuing advisories on TD #3 after data indicated that it has developed a closed low-level circulation center. Top winds are 35 mph and it is forecast to become a tropical storm over the warm waters of the southest Atlantic Ocean. Thus tropical storm warnings are in effect for a portion of south Florida along the east and west coasts. The official track forecast takes the depression, strengthening in to a tropical storm, through the Florida Straits and in to the Gulf of Mexico. While this would keep the center from making landfall in Florida, it will not matter- the system is disorganized and somewhat spread out. Showers, thunderstorms and general squally weather will overspread the southern portion of Florida, coming from the Bahamas, over the next couple of days. Do not take this weak system lightly. Tropical rain fall is always a big concern. Take note of any local information concerning potential flooding. It does not take a hurricane to cause major issues. Speaking of hurricanes, the forecast does not show this becoming a hurricane and in fact, most of the global models weaken it over the Gulf of Mexico due to increasingly unfavorable conditions. The only help I can be on this matter is to point out that NHC intensity forecasting is where the least amount of skill lies. In other words, they readily admit that forecasting the intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes is the toughest aspect of their forecasts. While it is possible that this becomes a hurricane at some point, the current evidence from computer models suggests that it will not. Obviously, people along the northern and western Gulf Coast will want to stay on top of the situation. We are also watching 98L in the southwest Gulf of Mexico for possible development. It is moving westward towards mainland Mexico and looks to be getting more organized with time. The issue here is obviously another tropical cyclone impact for Mexico but also the large envelope of moisture is reaching up in to Texas. This means more heavy rains off and on for coastal Texas- this is on top of what fell with Alex and TD #2 in recent weeks. Again, this is something to be aware of as freshwater flooding seems to escape our minds as being a problem until it is upon us. I'll have another update here around 5pm ET today. UPDATED: 5:45 pm EDT, July 21, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me GETTING BY WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS SO FAR The forecast for this hurricane season by several agencies, both here in the U.S. and abroad, was for it to be a very busy hurricane season. I suppose it is all in how you look at it since we did have category two hurricane Alex in late June along with several strong disturbances that came close to developing. The bottom line is that, so far, the United States and most areas of the western Atlantic Basin have been fortunate. It appears that this run of good luck will continue as it looks as though 97L, the strong tropical wave nearing the Bahamas, is not going to develop much more. Conditions just are not too favorable and this proves once again that warm sea surface temps alone will not do the trick as far as setting off hurricane development. It does appear that the Bahamas, portions of Cuba and eventually Florida will receive tropical rains, some gusty winds and maybe, just maybe, this becomes a depression before reaching land this weekend. This should not be taken lightly- tropical waves of African origin pack a good punch. Ask anyone from the Lesser Antilles especially who have to deal with these systems on a regular basis. So just be aware of the situation, monitor your local weather conditions and we'll see what happens. Odds favor a continued run of good luck and I do not see that changing anytime soon. Can't get much more pleasant than that in a season such as this, yes? I'll have more here tomorrow. UPDATED: 9:00 am EDT, July 21, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me 97L STRUGGLING AT THE MOMENT It looks like we are catching a break with 97L. The fairly rapid organization that we saw yesterday has ceased and even reversed this morning. Deep convection or thunderstorm activity has waned considerably. It no longer looks like it is on its way to becoming a tropical depression- not anytime soon. Thus all recon missions planned for today have been put off until needed. I find it comforting that the global models have not been bullish on this system developing and it looks like that is exactly what is happening. There is still some potential for additional development but nothing I see indicates a hurricane threat. We will certainly keep an eye on this tropical wave as it moves to the west-northwest and towards the Bahamas and south Florida. Squally conditions will begin to overspread the southeast Bahamas and eventually the Florida peninsula. Whether or not we see more than that remains up in the air for the time being. I'll have another update here this afternoon around 2pm ET. UPDATED: 10:20 pm EDT, July 20, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me TOMORROW BIG DAY FOR TROPICS Tomorrow we will know. We will know whether or not 97L has in fact become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm. Why? Because we will have the gift of aircraft data from the disturbance itself. NOAA and the Air Force are sending out numerous missions to begin recon in and around the tropical wave that is slowly gaining strength in the waters north of the Greater Antilles. Their on-site data will tell us about the structure of the system, the environment around it and just how strong it is. All of this data will help to better initialize the computer models and thus should yield better track results down the road. For now, the tropical wave is becoming better defined and may be developing a low level circulation. Assuming that this happens, then we could be looking at a tropical depression or even tropical storm by tomorrow afternoon. Obviously, a lot of people want to know where it's headed and how strong it will be when it gets there. I wish I knew. The best guess is that it looks possible that south Florida, but the Bahamas first, could be dealing with a tropical storm by the weekend. For tonight and a good deal of tomorrow, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic will feel the effects which include heavy rains, gusty winds and general squally conditions. This will pass as the wave of low pressure moves off to the west-northwest. So for now, let's wait on the recon info tomorrow and another round of global computer model output tonight as we monitor the evolution of this latest system. The rest of the tropics are quiet but there is a small window of opportunity for another tropical wave passing off of the Yucatan now to organize before reaching mainland Mexico. Although the NHC does not have it circled as an area of interest, it's worth keeping an eye on since it will mean more rain for the same region affected by Alex and TD2. I'll have more here in the morning. For our Premium Services subscribers- remember to log in and catch the daily Hurricane Outlook and Discussion video with the live chat. If you miss the live broadcast, it is archived on our Premium Services site. So if you're a subscriber and have not logged in so far this season, now is an excellent time to get re-acquainted with our features. I'll have a live video update for subscribers tomorrow morning at 11:05am ET. UPDATED: 5:00 pm EDT, July 20, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me ACTIVE FEW DAYS AHEAD WITH 97L AND POSSIBLE SOUTHERN GULF DEVELOPMENT The tropics are all of a sudden springing to life, something that can happen even in the face of seemingly quiet periods. We are monitoring two areas for tropical storm formation- one which could affect Florida this weekend. The first area is 97L, the strong tropical wave near the vicinity of Puerto Rico. It continues to get better organized as upper level winds support a steady development trend. It may not be too much longer now before we see this become a tropical depression. The NHC is sending a lot of resources out to the region tomorrow including NOAA and Air Force missions to further investigate the disturbance. Right now, it looks as though a track towards the southeast Bahamas is likely with an eventual landfall perhaps in south Florida this weekend. A lot of this will depend on how strong the southeast U.S. ridge of high pressure is. If it is strong enough, it would block much northern movement of the system and could steer it in to and through the Florida Straits. If this happens, then we could see a Gulf of Mexico issue develop later down the road. Most of the computer models suggest a course towards southeast Florida anywhere from the Space Coast to Miami. Since it is still in the development stage, we will just have to monitor conditions as they unfold. As for intensity, this too is a tough call. There is an upper level low pressure area to the northwest of the system which is providing some decent upward motion or outflow, not the most ideal conditions, but enough to help spawn the convective activity we are seeing today. How these two features interact with each other will in large part determine how strong this can get. I will refrain from any speculation since we do not even have a closed circulation at the surface yet. I think that if I lived along the southeast coast of Florida that I would keep a close eye on this developing weather situation and react accordingly. I will say this, as of now, I am planning to head to Florida tomorrow afternoon to meet up with colleagues in Miami and Ft. Lauderdale in case this does in fact develop and threaten a landfall this weekend. I'll post more on these plans later tonight and tomorrow morning. As for the other area to watch- another tropical wave is moving through the western Caribbean Sea. There is a chance that this too could develop before reaching the Mexican coast in a few days. The main issue here is more un-needed rain in areas that Alex and TD2 drenched in recent weeks. I will keep on top of this as well and post more info here around 11pm ET tonight. UPDATED: 8:25 am EDT, July 20, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP CLOSE EYE ON 97L The tropics are becoming more active now in the Atlantic and especially so with 97L, the strong tropical wave near Puerto Rico. I was hoping we could get out of July without any issues but that does not look like it will be case. The NHC is slowly increasing the chances of 97L developing and it won't be too long now before we see a recon plane dispatched to the region to check things out. While the system is rather small and disorganized now, there are beginning to be indications in the computer models that it could in fact develop as it heads generally towards Florida. The good news is that nothing I have seen thus far suggests that this system will get very strong. Of course, we cannot rule out the fact that the models may be missing something, but generally when the powerful global models all agree, more or less, with each other, it is usually a good sign. So for now, the tropical wave will continue to bring periods of heavy rains, gusty winds and locally rough seas to Puerto Rico and points west towards the southeast Bahamas. I'll post more on this developing situation this afternoon. UPDATED: 1:00 pm EDT, July 19, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me MY MONEY IS ON NO DEVELOPMENT ANYTIME SOON If you look out at the satellite pics this afternoon, you might be concerned. While we do have a tropical wave that is flaring up, and it has been designated as 97L, my money is on it NOT developing. Why? Conditions are just not favorable. We have seen this pattern in place for several weeks now and I think it will only get worse (worse meaning less favorable than we are seeing now). Of course, this spells nothing but great news for people living and vacationing along the coast. I just do not see any indication that a shift in the pattern is imminent. In fact, the 15 day MJO forecast from the GFS, which depicts areas favorable for enhanced tropical convection, shows a massive area of sinking, dry conditions moving in to the Atlantic Basin between now and early August. Can something develop despite this apparent negative environment? Yes. But as of now, I am not seeing any real opportunities for tropical storm formation. I'll go over the reasons in more detail on this afternoon's edition of the Weekly Hurricane Outlook video at 2pm ET. UPDATED: 1:15 pm EDT, July 17, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me STILL NICE AND QUIET OUT THERE The tropics remain quiet this weekend with only one area to watch- the Caribbean Sea. There is a considerable amount of convection across a good deal of that region but nothing that appears organized. None of the global computer models seem to develop anything significant out of that area so perhaps it will just remain disorganized. In fact, looking ahead, there is nothing to indicate any solid development potential for probably the next week. Enjoy the weekend! I'll have more here on Monday including the Weekly Hurricane Outlook video at 2pm ET. UPDATED: 10:50 am EDT, July 16, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me TWO AREAS TO MONITOR OVER THE WEEKEND While it won't be as quiet as it was last weekend, things are still fairly tranquil across much of the tropics. However, there are a couple of areas to monitor for possible development. Let's take a closer look. The first is the area that the NHC has circled in the SW Caribbean Sea. Most of the global computer models go on to develop this system over the course of the next five days or so. They all seem to be in good agreement on a track very similar to that of hurricane Alex and TD #2. There is just something about the pattern we're in. None of the models seem to indicate a very strong system developing, but we'll want to watch that region as it has been the breeding ground for both of this season's Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones to date. Meanwhile, there are some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico associated with a weak tropical wave moving through the region. It needs to be watched simply because it is there and at least one model, the NAM, tries to develop it on its way to Texas much like Edouard did in 2008. We could be looking at more rain for portions of the Texas and Louisiana coastlines as the weekend progresses but I do not see anything from the HPC precip forecasts to indicate very heavy amounts overall. It is just something to be aware of- even without tropical cyclone formation, it is an area that boaters will want to avoid. The rest of the tropics are a non-issue right now and should remain that way for the next five to seven days. I'll have more here tomorrow morning. UPDATED: 12:30 pm EDT, July 15, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE TROPICS AS WE ENTER SECOND HALF OF JULY It has been very quiet over the last several days and this has been mainly due to fairly dry, stable conditions and strong upper level winds prevailing in the tropical Atlantic. With the exception of TD #2 which came on the heels of hurricane Alex, July has been nice and quiet, especially in the Atlantic Ocean. I do see signs though that things are about to change. Nothing drastic, as this is a slow process, but the changes are certainly there. To start off, the Saharan Air Layer is beginning to loosen its grip over the extreme eastern Atlantic as the pressures begin to fall across the region. A very strong Azores High was in control for much of the month to date, now it is starting to fade some, allowing for less of a burst of winds coming off the dry, dusty continent of Africa. This will eventually allow the tropical waves to gain more moisture as they work westward, but as I mentioned, it will take time. We can also see that the strong upper level trough which has been dominant over the Atlantic and Caribbean is starting to lift north and weaken. This will reduce the amount of shearing winds that tear the tops off of developing tropical cyclones. But this will be a slow process, not something that goes away in a day or two. The point is, this time of the season is typically very inactive. We are moving closer towards the climatological ramping up of the tropics and this season, it will likely be quite dramatic. We still have record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The Gulf of Mexico has cooled some but is obviously warm enough to support hurricane development. I think we have perhaps another week of quiet conditions before we begin to see the changes take hold and the tropics become more active. For now, enjoy the lull, it should stick around for a little while longer. UPDATED: 10:15 am EDT, July 13, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me ATLANTIC QUIET BUT EAST PACIFIC ABOUT TO GET ACTIVE AGAIN The Atlantic Basin is about as tranquil as you'll ever see. Dry, stable air covers a great deal of the region from Africa extending westward in to the Caribbean Sea. Strong high pressure is in control and this is keeping the Saharan Air Layer intact over the eastern Atlantic. As I said yesterday, we will not see much chance of development until this large scale hindering factor releases its grip some. So far, I see no indication that we'll have to deal with anything significant over the next five to seven days and probably longer. In the east Pacific, a disturbance off the coast of Central America looks like it has some potential to develop in to the next named storm. Computer models genreally indicate it moving WNW just off the coast of Mexico s it slowly organizes. This may be the beginning of a new pulse of activity that could eventually spread in to the Atlantic Basin towards the end of the month. We'll just have to wait and see about that. Tonight on HurricaneTrack News/Talk, we'll speak with Jill Hasling of the Weather Research Center/Weather Museum in Houston, Texas. Our discussion will focus on hurricanes, obviously, and specifcially Ike. We'll also get her thoughts on the 2010 hurricane season as well as what the Weather Museum is all about. Join us tonight at 9pm ET right here on the homepage. UPDATED: 9:25 am EDT, July 12, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me ANOTHER QUIET WEEK IN THE TROPICS It looks like another quiet week ahead in the tropics. The Atlantic Basin has no organized areas of convection to speak of and dry, stable air covers a great deal of the eastern Atlantic. This is quite common this time of year no matter how busy the season is forecast to be. Not until the last few days of July and then getting in to August do we expect an increase in activity climatologically speaking. Will this season follow the normal pattern? We'll see. Right now, none of the global computer models indicate any development in the Atlantic over the next five days at least. I do believe that we'll see another named storm in the east Pacific as a tropical wave has moved in to the region just off the western Central American coast. Otherwise, the week starts off nice and quiet. I will be moving the Weekly Hurricane Outlook video to 2pm ET starting today. It will be streamed via Ustream and saved in the archive for viewing later if you cannot watch live. Today, I will take a look at why conditions are not favorable for development, including a fairly significant drop in sea surface temperature anomalies across a good deal of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Hope to see you at 2pm right here on the homepage. UPDATED: 11:30 am EDT, July 9, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me TROPICS LOOK TO REMAIN QUIET FOR A WHILE The upcoming weekend will be a nice one along our coastal waters- and that goes for the entire western Atlantic Basin. There are no areas of suspect weather that look to develop in to tropical storms or hurricanes on the map this morning. The only item worth mentioning is an upper level low with some surface reflection near the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, this system is cyclonic in nature all the way up in to the upper levels of the atmosphere- which is not conducive for tropical cyclone development. I do not see any indication that this will develop in to a more traditional warm-core system with any appreciable effects. Looking ahead, the global computer models do not show any real chances of tropical storm formation over the next several days at least. Conditions are simply not favorable right now with fairly strong westerly shear over the tropics and dry, dusty air covering a good deal of the far eastern Atlantic. Not until this pattern changes will the chances of tropical development increase. So enjoy the weekend! Program note: the Weekly Hurricane Outlook video will be moved from 11am ET to 2pm ET starting this Monday, July 12. It will be saved on our Ustream channel just as before but broadcast live at 2pm instead of 11am. UPDATED: 5:15 pm EDT, July 8, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me SECOND DEPRESSION IS INLAND AND DYING OUT BUT RAIN THREAT CONTINUES TD 2 Made landfall earlier today over extreme south Texas and with it there is an abundant surge of deep tropical moisture. This will continue to be the case for the next day or so and people in the region should be aware of possible flooding issues. I cannot emphasize this enough, be alert and be smart about any rising creeks, rivers, culverts, etc. Tropical rainfall can be deadly. The Gulf is now quiet and should remain so for the next several days at least. We are watching an upper level low pressure area off the North Carolina coast for possible transition to a more warm-core like feature. I do not think this happen but it cannot be ruled out. It has helped to break the heat wave over portions of the East Coast and may bring some relief in the form of showers and thunderstorms. We might also see an increse in surf for the coastal areas so be aware of that if heading to the beach this weekend. Otherwise, things are not too bad for this early part of July. I'll have a complete update on the tropics and a look ahead to the next couple of weeks in tomorrow's post. UPDATED: 10:45 am EDT, July 8, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me TD TWO A RAIN MAKER BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY The second tropical depression of the season is not likely to get much stronger as it approaches the coast near the Texas and Mexico border but it will bring a major problem- more rain. On the heels of hurricane Alex just a week ago now, this latest tropical event will only add to the flooding and saturated ground along the Rio Grande river valley. Tropical rainfall is often overlooked by the public as being a hazard- especially from weak systems such as TD2. However, several inches of rain can lead to flooding which then leads to a host of issues that can last for days after the storm system has passed. For local information on what flooding issues may arise, I again encouarage folks to visit weather.gov and input your ZIP Code for specific bulletins from your local NWS office. Elsewhere in the tropics, a sprawling area of dry, dusty air is in firm control over the eastern Atlantic due to an outbreak of what is known as the Saharan Air Layer from Africa. This should aid in keeping the eastern portion of the Basin very quiet over the next week to 10 days. Off the Carolina coast, we are watching a non-tropical area of low pressure that has some potential of acquiring more tropical-like characteristics as it moves slowly over very warm water. This system could bring more clouds and a chance of rain to the Outer Banks of NC over the next few days. We will just have to watch and see how much deep thunderstorm activity develops near the center. If it sustains enough deep convection, then it just might be classified as a sub-tropical storm at some point. I'll have another post early this evening. UPDATED: 10:30 am EDT, July 7, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me 96L HAS A SMALL CHANCE TO DEVELOP BEFORE MOVING INLAND NEAR WHERE ALEX DID A WEEK AGO The tropical disturbance known as 96L continues to move towards the general area that hurricane Alex impacted about a week. This time, things will be different. The pattern is just not favorable for much in the way of development but it is not entirely hostile either. There seems to be a chance, in about 24 to 30 hours, for this system to get better organized and perhaps become a tropical storm. The intensity models suggest this but do not really go beyond a moderate tropical storm, which is good news for people in south Texas and northern Mexico. One concern however will be excessive rains. These tropical systems can dump several inches of rain in short order and this region has seen its share of rain over the last week. Be aware of this potential as the system gets closer to the coast over the next day or two. The rest of the tropics are fairly quiet. There is an interesting upper level low over the Atlantic Ocean well off the coast of the U.S. that could transition in to more of a hybrid or sub-tropical low over the very warm waters. This will be something to monitor as we approach the weekend as sometimes these cold-core systems do become more tropical in nature. But as I said, elsewhere, things are very quiet and I do not see any solid indication of tropical storm formation for at least the next five to seven days. A nice lull in activity considering the nature of the season that we are in. UPDATED: 5:45 pm EDT, July 6, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me A LOT OF RAIN HEADING FOR TEXAS BUT AT LEAST NO HURRICANES The tropics are quiet in terms of any hurricane threats. I see nothing in the computer models or in the real world to indicate any significant development for the next several days at least. However, 96L and its parent moisture envelope are heading towards Texas and even Louisiana where rain has been rather excessive in places lately. Do not underestimate the power of tropical rains such as this. Flooding from freshwater such as rain and swollen creeks and rivers is a killer and should be taken seriously. It may be a few days of off and on periods of heavy rains for much of the Texas coast. Otherwise, the bigger story is the incredible heat being dealt with in the Northeast where records are falling as the heat soars. Tonight on HurricaneTrack News/Talk, we'll discuss 96L and the rest of the tropics and why things are quiet right now. We'll also open up the live chat this evening for you all to post questions for us. Join Mike Watkins, Jesse Bass and me tonight at 9pm on the homepage for an interactive program. If you have a question for us, about the hurricane season, what ever, so long as it is related to the tropics, feel free to join in the dicsussion this evening. UPDATED: 1:30 am EDT, July 6, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me 96L THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN AND EVEN IT IS NOT TOO BAD Wanted to post an update since I was up late getting caught up on things. It looks like 96L, the tropical wave in the NW Caribbean Sea, is the only area to watch over the next few days. Earlier on Monday evening, 95L, the small low pressure area that scooted across the northern Gulf, finally moved inland over southern Louisiana- almost making it briefly to tropical storm strength. So what lies ahead for the wave in the Caribbean? Probably not much. It seems that we are in a period of rather slow activity and I just don't see this system, or any others for that matter, doing much over the next three to five days. I am not saying we won't see anything becoming of 96L, but the pattern just doesn't seem right for development at the moment, something is missing. So, until that elusive spark shows up, we'll take the quiet period and enjoy it. But just for good measure, keep up to date on what is going on in the tropics, although surprises are rare these days due to a constant vigil being kept on the tropics, one never knows when something comes along and stirs everything up. I'll have a more thorough update later in the day Tuesday. UPDATED: 2:15 pm EDT, July 4, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me TROPICS GETTING MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BUT NO PROBLEMS FOR LAND AREAS The NHC now has two areas outlined as being possible suspects for development over the next couple of days. One is 95L in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The other, newly designated 96L in the Caribbean Sea. 95L is small and rather weak. It has a chance to develop more deep thunderstorms before moving inland early next week but I don't think this has much of a chance to be anything more than a nuisance to the local area it impacts. The other area of interest, 96L, is moving steadily through the Caribbean Sea- not too far off track of where Alex began. There is more of a chance for this to develop as it heads generally towards the Yucatan peninsula this week. The computer models are not much help right now but if we go strictly by the ECMWF, which handled Alex very well, then it looks as though a tropical storm could in fact form and head across the southern Gulf of Mexico this week. I do not see any indication that the oil disaster region will be directly impacted by this system- so far, we have been very lucky in that regard. I'll have more here tomorrow morning including the Weekly Hurricane Outlook at 11am ET right here on the homepage. Also, I have set up a page where those who are interested can order a color poster of hurricane Alex as it made landfall along the Mexican coast. It is a glossy 13" by 19" poster of the history-making hurricane. Check it out here. UPDATED: 5:30 pm EDT, July 3, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me THREE AREAS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON BUT NOTHING TO SUGGEST MAJOR PROBLEMS We are watching three areas in the Atlantic Basin for possible tropical or sub-tropical development over the next few days. Let's look at them one at a time. First, 95L in the Gulf. This system remains rather weak and disorganized. It is over very warm water but upper level winds are simply not favorable for significant development. It should move slowly to the west over the next few days and bring periods of squally weather to the oil disaster region but nothing that should interfere too much. There is a slight chance that this system develops in to a tropical or sub-tropical depression but the models are not very bullish on this happening, which is obviously great news. The next area is a possible low developing off the Southeast coast near the Bahamas. The GFS in particular is showing what could be a sub-tropical system (this means is has both tropical characteristics and non-tropical mixed in, not purely tropical in nature) forming over the next three to five days. I read a few discussions from area NWS sites and they are not buying that the feature will actually develop. Water temps in this region too are very warm, quite a bit above normal, so it is possible that any low that does develop at the surface could acquire enough deep thunderstorm activity to lower the pressures and develop. Again, this does not like like a major problem- perhaps an increase in rain and wind along the Sooutheast coast this coming week. Last, there is a large area of deep convection growing in the Caribbean Sea that certainly warrants some attention. This region generally has lower than normal surface pressures and has very high ocean heat content. Some of the global computer models indicate that low pressure could originate from this area and work in towards the southern Gulf of Mexico later next week. We are in a period of transition though, with a lot of areas of strong upper level winds and dry air in the mid-levels. I am not sure we will see much more than possibly a named storm or two come from any of these systems. The pattern just does not appear ripe to support any real chance of hurricane formation anytime soon. We shall see. I'll post more here on all of these areas tomorrow. UPDATED: 4:15 pm EDT, July 2, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me WEEKEND NOT TOO BAD TROPICS-WISE BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH While we are watching 95L in the extreme NE Gulf, it is not developing very quickly. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist with the low pressure area, off an on, as it moves further out in to the Gulf of Mexico. It needs to overcome quite a bit of dry air in the mid-levels before it can go purely tropical and lower the pressures at the surface. This may happen, but it is certainly not a guarantee. Only the GFS model seems to latch on and show the system doing much as it moves WSW and then back west around the back side of a developing area of high pressure over the Southeast. Just be aware of it while enjoying the coastal waters this busy weekend. The other story is the possibility of more development coming out of the Caribbean Sea and SW Gulf later next week. The ECMWF model, which was very accurate with its modeling of what would happen with Alex (once it saw the storm would actually develop), is now seeing another tropical cyclone spin up in about five days somewhere in the vicinity of the SW Gulf. It moves it inland over the same general area that Alex impacted. This is not unprecedented as tropical cyclones can often follow a similar steering pattern that sets up in the atmosphere. So this too will have to be monitored but it will have ZERO impact on the 4th of July holiday coming up, no worries what so ever there. I'll have much more tomorrow morning and of course will post bits and pieces of info on our Facebook page and via Twitter. UPDATED: 11:30 am EDT, July 1, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me JUNE ENDS WITH A RECORD HURRICANE- JULY SHOULD BE QUIETER, TO START AT LEAST Alex is now well inland over Mexico and is slowly dying away. It set records for a June hurricane, including the #2 strongest ever, behind only Audrey in 1957. For folks in Texas, this was a lucky outcome, had Alex been knocking on the door of Corpus Christi or Galveston when it began to deepen like it did, the results would have been devastating. As it turned out, the hurricane made landfall in a fairly sparsely populated region of Mexico. We may never know just how strong it was in the absence of surface obs, but its satellite appearance was that of a category three hurricane- easily. We'll see what the final result is after the season is over and the folks who look at such things can do a complete analysis of the hurricane. So what now? Hopefully a quiet period. Do you realize that we have been either watching an area of interest (92L, 93L, 94L) since June 12. One of them became Alex and Alex of course went on to become a powerful hurricane. It has been non-stop for over half the month of June. We all need a period of quiet now. Will we get it? I think so. The global models do not suggest anything significant developing anytime soon but we do have a lot of tropical energy and the cold front dropping south off the Southeast coast. These can sometimes become the focusing mechanism for development and we'll watch closely for that. Along the central Gulf Coast, unsettled weather will be the rule over the next few days associated with the front and tropical moisture that has hung up over the region. Again, there is a small chance that something could develop but I am not seeing anything definitive in computer guidance to latch on to. I'll have more here tomorrow including a look at current sea surface temperature anomalies for the Atlantic and how we compare to last year and 2005. UPDATED: 11:35 pm EDT, June 30, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me ALEX MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO AS IT LEAVES ITS MARK IN HURRICANE HISTORY There is not much to add concerning Alex at this late hour. The hurricane made landfall as a 105 mph hurricane with a pressure of 947 millibars. This could have easily been a category three or four hurricane had it more time over water- considering the favorable upper level environment it had. Thankfully, the NHC indicates that Alex struck an area that is fairly sparse in terms of population. None the less, the people who experienced this record hurricane will never forget it. Hopefully we will get some information and photos/video out of the region tomorrow. It will take some time for the large circulation of Alex to spin down and dissipate. As such, a large portion of the Gulf of Mexico coastline will continue to feel the effects until the center fills and the pressure comes up- this is already happening and will do so in a more rapid fashion throughout the day tomorrow. As I mentioned earlier, despite the date being wrong on my updates today (they are corrected now), the weekend looks great across the Southeast and Gulf Coast. No hurricanes threaten and none are seen in any of the major computer models over the next week to 10 days. But get ready, another weather story will break next week for portions of the East- a major heat wave is on the way, another striking similarity to the 2005 season. I think that most people are believers now that the current hurricane season is something we need to take seriously. Texas was lucky this time around, Alex could have been a devastating event for places farther up the coast. As it turned out, the U.S. was spared the worst effects but it should serve as a reminder that the season could be very busy and that we need to be ready. I'll have more in the morning. UPDATED: 5:00 pm EDT, June 30, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me STRONGEST JUNE HURRICANE IN A GENERATION ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL 
Alex is nearing landfall in northern Mexico. It is now the strongest hurricane in June in more than 25 years. Top winds are at least 90 mph with a pressure of 959 mb. The satellite photo, as shown here, is impressive. A classic western Gulf hurricane that is large in size. The impacts will be felt for another day or so over quite a large area until the circulation weakens over Mexico starting tomorrow.The threat to areas where Alex comes ashore will be mostly storm surge and high winds. Obviously the heavy rains are an issue too but right at the core is where the highest winds and storm surge be felt. Hopefully the hurricane will get on the coast before it can get any stronger- aircraft recon in the region will keep us all posted with fequent info. The remainder of the tropics are nice and quiet as we approach the 4th of July weekend ahead. I see nothing that indicates any significant chances of development once Alex is gone. June will end on a very busy note but at least the first part of July should start quieter, once we're rid of Alex. I'll have one more post late tonight. UPDATED: 11:00 am EDT, June 30, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me LARGE HURRICANE ALEX CLOSING IN ON MEXICO COASTLINE The latest info from the NHC tells us that Alex is still an 80 mph hurricane. This is hard to believe considering the pressure is down to 961 millibars. None the less, on-site recon data is the proof needed and their data does not indicate stronger winds. One possible reason for this is due to the overall lower background pressures in the region, similar to 2005. If the overall pressure field is lower, then the gradient, or difference in pressure over distance, is not as steep, resulting in lower surface winds. In any case, Alex is forecast to become a category two hurricane before landfall late tonight. This would make it the strongest June hurricane since 1996 I believe, when hurricane Alma reached cat-3 intensity coming up out of the Caribbean Sea. (You may see past tropical storm and hurricane tracks on our archive maps here. The impact of Alex on Mexico will be considerable but it is not hitting a very densely populated area. Storm surge is likely to be greatest on the north side of where the center makes landfall. Heavy rains and of course the strong winds we expect from a hurricane will also be prevalent. Conditions will worsen for the region as the day progresses. All along the Texas coast and even extending up across the north-central Gulf Coast, Alex's effects are being felt. Rain bands extending far out from the center are moving around the enormous circulation and associated low pressure area associated with the hurricane. It is a good thing Alex is not a powerful hurricane hitting a major city. Its size is unusual especially for June. As I mention often here, one of the best sources of local information is the NWS office in your area. Simply go to weather.gov and input your ZIP Code. From there, you will find plenty of local information including well written text products outlining what to expect form tropical cyclone events and other severe weather. I cannot emphasize enough the importance of these locally issued sources of information. I'll have an update on Alex later this afternoon near the 5pm ET adivsory package. UPDATED: 10:45 pm EDT, June 29, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me HURRICANE ALEX BEARING DOWN ON MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS BUT EFFECTS FELT FAR AND WIDE Not since 1995 have we had a hurricane in June. Not even the infamous 2005 season featured a June hurricane so Alex is in unique company. The NHC upgraded it to a 75 mph hurricane tonight as the pressure has steadily dropped and the organization has improved. Now the question is- how strong will it get? That is tough to answer as the inner core of a hurricane is extremely difficult to predict. There is a chance it could get stronger but it all depends on factors beyond the scope of today's modern computer modeling. The best bet is for people in the region to remain alert and be ready for its arrival later tomorrow. As far as impact to Mexico, areas just to the north of the center will likely receive the highest storm surge due to onshore flow. Even the mouth of the Rio Grande and vicinity could be inundated with a few extra feet of Gulf water as the center moves inland tomorrow night. In addition, the usual heavy rains, occurring in bands, will increase with time as the wind picks up. I want to encourage you to check out our broadcast of HurricaneTrack News/Talk for tonight which featured a lot of discussion about Alex's effects on Mexico. Our guest was Tim Millar from the Cyclone Research Group who was in the region when hurricane Dolly struck two years ago late July. The archived broadcast is linked below. The remainder of the Gulf coast from Texas to the AL/MS line will also have some effects due to the large and sprawling size of the hurricane. Onshore winds and the spiral bands will bring periods of rough weather to a huge extent of the Gulf Coast. As I mention in the videocast, a great resource is not only the NWS site (weather.gov) but specifically the Hurricane Local Statement. A wealth of excellent info is contained within that product. I'll have much more concerning Alex tomorrow morning along with an update on the rest of the tropics as we round out the month of June. UPDATED: 9:40 am EDT, June 29, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me SO FAR NO SURPRISES WITH ALEX Once the computer models calmed down and came in to better agreement with each other, the forecast for Alex turned relatively easy. All indications are that it will make landfall south of Brownsville, TX on Thursday as a hurricane. Of course, Alex is a very large tropical storm and its effects will be felt all along the western Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rains, high surf and windy conditions will prevail for portions of the lower Texas coast while squally weather will extend farther north. The greatest impact will be felt near where the center comes ashore and likely just to the north, in the right-front quadrant. For specific info for your area, I highly recommend going to weather.gov and inputting your ZIP Code. From there, read the Hurricane Local Statement issued by the local NWS office. You will find a lot of detailed info on what to expect in YOUR community from this report. As for the storm itself, it is nearing hurricane intensity and should be a solid category one by the time it reaches the coast. With it being so large and having spent a day over land, it should not have time to rapidly intensify but that cannot be ruled out. Understanding the inner core of a tropical cyclone, especially a hurricane, is tough at best. A lot can happen with intensity up or down- the track forecast seems pretty straight forward. The remainder of the Atlantic and east Pacific are quiet for now. I do think we'll see some development between Africa and the Lesser Antilles next week. The waves of low pressure coming off of Africa are strong for this time of year and sea surface temps are running well above normal. Computer models do suggest a busy July which is to be expected considering how the season as a whole is foreacast to be. I'll post another update this afternoon around the 5pm ET advisory time. Also- tonight on HurricaneTrack News/Talk, we will speak with Tim Millar of the Cyclone Research Group. He was in northern Mexico when hurricane Dolly made landfall two years ago. We'll talk to him about the region, what the folks there can expect and some about his work in studying hurricanes- especially outside of the United States. That's tonight at 9pm ET right here on the homepage. UPDATED: 5:00 pm EDT, June 28, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me BETTER NEWS FOR TEXAS AS ALEX SLOWLY, AND I MEAN SLOWLY, MAKES ITS MOVE The latest news from the NHC suggests that Alex will not make landfall in Texas- which is obviously excellent news for the Lone Star State. However, what's good for Texas is bad for Mexico. Here's the breakdown: It now looks as though the ridge of high pressure to the north of Alex should build back in enough to send the storm, soon to be hurricane, more to the west with time. Even though it is moving NNW right now and doing so very slowly, this should change in the coming days as the high pressure "bubble" builds in and sends Alex on a more WNW track. It should also pick up some forward speed and landfall somewhere south of Brownsville should take place on Wednesday night. Of course, no one in Texas, especially the lower Texas coast, should let their guard down. You don't need me to tell you this but none the less, there's the reminder. What effects might Alex have on Texas? There could be tropical storm conditions for areas such as South Padre Island and vicinity. The onshore flow will create dangerous surf and higher waves- along with a small storm surge. Be sure to refer to your LOCAL NWS office for detailed info on what to expect. It is located within the Hurricane Local Statement for your specific region. In Mexico, people need to prepare for a hurricane. How bad it gets is obviously tied to how strong Alex becomes. Right now, indications are that it will peak at 90-100 mph. We know all too well how bad intensity forecasts can be so my advice for people in the watch area, be prepared for one category higher- that should do the trick. If it comes in weaker, then it's a win-win situation. The rest of the Atlantic is quiet for now for the most part. I'll have another update here late tonight. UPDATED: 9:00 am EDT, June 28, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me WILL JUNE END WITH ALEX BECOMING A HURRICANE? AND WHERE IS IT HEADED? As we near the end of June, we have the first tropical storm of the season already causing concern for the western Gulf of Mexico. Before I go any further, let me emphasize once again that Alex poses no direct threat to the oil disaster region of the Gulf. It may send swells in that direction over the coming days which could impact the region but it would be minimal compared to a direct hit by a hurricane. Alex continues to slowly gather intensity over the southern Gulf as it moves quite slowly to the northwest. The NHC is forecasting it to knock on the door of becoming a major hurricane- with winds near 110 mph in about three days. The thing to watch for is how quickly the storm can develop a well defined inner core and an eye feature. The sooner it does this, the sooner it will intensify and with that, the potential for it to ramp up quickly exists. It is remarkable to see upper level conditions so favorable this early in the season, something that we should take note of for August and September especially. As for the track- the NHC mentions that the overall model package has shifted north just a little. None the less, the official track is forecast to put the center of Alex in to Mexico and not Texas. Since Alex is a large storm and could grow larger in coverage, it is likely to bring heavy rain and an increase in wind to the southern coast of Texas- assuming it does not track any more northward than indicated. So what is the chance of it doing that? From what I have read, the odds are creeping up, but only slightly, that Alex will make landfall in the United States. The GFS, GFDL and HWRF models, to name a few, do show landfall just south of Corpus Christi between three and four days from now. However, as mentioned in the NHC discussion, other models such as the Euro and UKMET put Alex on the coast well south of Brownsville. What it looks like is happening is that the two camps of models are working to converge and meet in the middle. Therefore, if I lived in south Texas, I would be keeping a close eye on what Alex is up to these next few days. That goes without saying, and folks in Texas know hurricanes quite well, so I am sure they'll be on top of this. Tonight is an important model period as new data from a variety of sources over the Gulf will be input in to the global model package- hopefully yielding an even tighter clustering of results. I'll be on LIVE today at 11am ET with the Weekly Hurricane Outlook video. It will appear above the commentary block. If you cannot watch live, it will be saved on our Ustream channel and linked below. UPDATED: 10:00 pm EDT, June 27, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me ALEX BACK OVER THE WATER, BEGINNING TO RE-STRENGTHEN BUT WHERE WILL IT TRACK NEXT? Things have not become much easier with regards to Alex which is now back out over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche/Southern Gulf of Mexico. Upper level winds favor this becoming a hurricane quickly and already, the recon plane in the area is showing a pressure of around 991 mb- lower than when it was over land. The official NHC forecast makes Alex a hurricane over the next few days. So where is it heading next? I wish I knew. The computer models are not much help overall as some still show a Mexico final landfall with others showing a Texas landfall. How will we know which group of models to believe? That is also too tough to answer right now. A lot depends on how the steering currents evolve early this coming week. It is quite complicated, that much is certain. So while I do not have much new information tonight, I will urge coastal Texas residents to keep watching Alex- as if you need me to suggest that? It is possible that it could head your way- but exactly where, if at all, is quite uncertain. We are trying to decide whether or not to pack up the Tahoe and head out on Tuesday morning so believe me, if we had a solid idea, I'd share with you. I encourge you to watch the live Weekly Hurricane Outlook video tomorrow morning at 11am ET. I will go over the very latest concerning Alex, including the 11am advisory info as it comes out. The video will play right here on the homepage and if you cannot watch, it will be saved on our Ustream channel for later viewing. UPDATED: 11:00 am EDT, June 27, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me THE FATE OF ALEX SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN- UNDERSCORES IMPORTANCE OF NOT FOCUSING ON CENTER FORECASTS Alex has weakened over the terrain of the southern Yucatan peninsula. This will likely be only temporary as the cyclone moves back out over the water this evening. Sea surface temps in the southern Gulf of Mexico are very warm and it is likely that Alex will become the first hurricane of the season. How strong it gets from there is highly dependent upon where it tracks. That is the question- where will Alex end up? The NHC has mentioned in its last two discussions that there is uncertainty in the track forecast due to complex weather patterns over North America. Right now an area of high pressure to the north of Alex is keeping it on its current motion- towards the west-northwest. This high is forecast to break down as a decent cold front sweeps in and exerts its influence. This will effectively remove the block that is keeping Alex to the south and allow the system to gain latitude or come farther north. Then, and here is where it gets interesting, the high pressure should build back in, bringing a return to heat and humidty to the Deep South and Southeast. This would turn Alex back more towards the west and in to northern Mexico in about four days. However, if this high pressure is slower to build in or is weaker, then Alex could directly impact the Texas coast. There are several models that show this and in fact they bring Alex as far north as Port Arthur and vicinity. On the other hand, another group of computer models keep Alex on a west-bound track and in to Mexico. Either way, the next few model run cycles are going to be very important and people anywhere along the western Gulf of Mexico coastline should be monitoring Alex closely. I will have another update here tonight, around 10pm, and will discuss Alex in great detail on tomorrow morning's Weekly Hurricane Outlook video. For our Premium Services members, be sure to log in this afternoon for a live video discussion at 2:15pm ET. Not a member? check out the benefits of signing up. UPDATED: 12:40 am EDT, June 26, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me FIRST DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON NOT IN A BIG HURRY TO GO ANYWHERE The latest info from the NHC tells us that TD #1 is still getting better organized but only slowly. It is still a large system and it is trying to pull in the available energy in its surrounding environment. Fortunately, it should run out of ocean before it can really crank up. None the less, the depression is moving fairly slowly- less than 10mph right now. This will result in heavy rains for portions of the Central American land mass. We have often seen the consequences of such torrential rains and there is the possibility of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across the region. The intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening over the warm waters of the NW Caribbean Sea. While it is not forecast to become a hurricane, this cannot be totally ruled out. Once the system crosses over the Yucatan, depending upon how far south it is in the Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Campeche, it could gain some of the intensity that it should lose while over land. How strong is tough to say. Keep in mind that the intensity forecasts for tropical cyclones is poor overall. A lot can happen after the first landfall along the Yucatan but the track should be towards northern Mexico or perhaps extreme south Texas in a little over five days. The reason it should not come more north next week is due to a large area of high pressure in the steering layers of the atmosphere that will act to shove the storm on a westerly course- instead of allowing it to find a weakeness, like water rushing in to a gully, and turn north. The NHC seems fairly confident in the track forecast and I see no reason to believe that this system will affect the central Gulf Coast if it affects the United States at all. For those with interests south of the border, you'll want to keep a close eye on this system- it could be quite a slow mover and no matter how strong it gets, it will be a prolific rain producer. I will post more here during the day on Saturday with frequent updates on Twitter and our Facebook page. UPDATED: 6:15 pm EDT, June 25, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON HAS FORMED- NO THREAT TO DEEP HORIZON EFFORTS It is official, we now have TD #1 in the Caribbean Sea. The NHC has upgraded 93L to depression status as of 6pm ET. The depression is large in size and still has a fairly broad area of low pressure. It is not ready to rapidly intensify- but we never say never. The foreact track takes the depression, likely to become TS Alex, towards and over the Yucatan peninsula this weekend. From there, it shoud cross the southern Gulf of Mexico and regain some intensity after losing some punch over the Yucatan. The five day forecast keeps the system off of the Texas/Mexico coast as it looks to be a relatively slow mover. The main threat from TD #1 will be torrential rains and occasional gusty winds in squalls. If you are planning a trip to Cancun, Cozumel, etc. keep everything as scheduled. This is not going to be like Wilma or other powerful hurricanes that impacted that region. As far as problems for the Deep Horizon oil disaster, there is almost no indication that this system will affect that region of the Gulf. I will have another update late tonight. You can track TD #1 on our maps linked below. UPDATED: 5:10 pm EDT, June 25, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me SO FAR, NO UPGRADE FOR 93L BUT IT SURE SEEMS CLOSE The Hurricane Hunter crew has been investigating 93L since early this afternoon and thus far has not found that it has become a tropical depression just yet. One key thing to note here is that a depression needs a fairly well organized low level center of circulation. A broad center that is still trying to develop usually does not cut it. So for now, it looks like we'll just wait and see what 93L does. It could move inland over Central America tonight which would limit development but dump copious amounts of rain on the region. This rainfall alone can be life-threatening and is a concern for portions of Central America. An upgrade could come at anytime so check our Twitter posts or Facebook feed below for instant information. I will have a complete update, including thoughts on the future of this system, plus the new Atlantic area of interest (94L) later tonight. UPDATED: 8:05 am EDT, June 25, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me NHC SAYS TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKELY FORMING IN THE CARIBBEAN- RECON WILL TELL FOR SURE After several days of sputtering along, it looks like 93L is on its way to becoming a tropical depression. Surface pressures are falling and are around 1006 millibars or so across the area. This is probably the spark that will set the system off to becoming the first named storm of the season (Alex). A Hurricane Hunter crew will investigate the system this afternoon and will provide on-site data as to whether or not a depression has in fact formed. For now, unsettled weather will continue to spread across the Cayman Islands and portions of the Yucatan peninsula. Obviouisly this is not nearly as disruptive as a hurricane would be but heavy rains and breezy conditions are possible across this region of the Caribbean Sea as the system moves slowly through. As for impacts to the U.S. next week- there are two distinct camps of models showing two completely different scenarios. One is the reliable ECMWF model which takes the system across the Yucatan and then makes landfall in Mexico well to the south of Brownsville in about five days. The other group of models, such as the GFDL and to some extent the GFS, latch the system on to an approaching trough like a steel ball to a magnet and move it northward to the central Gulf Coast. I have posted what the folks at the HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center in Wash. D.C.) say about this. I find it very helpful in understanding what may happen over the next few days: REGARDING THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE WAVE WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY DAY 3 BEFORE CONTINUING ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO EITHER NORTHERN MEXICO OR EXTREME S. TEXAS DAYS 4-5. ONCE EXCEPTION TO THE THIS TRACK CONCERNS THE HWRF WHICH QUICKLY CURVES THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD APALACHICOLA BY DAY 5. THE CANADIAN REMAINS THE STRONGEST OF ALL THE GUIDANCE FOLLOWED BY THE HWRF...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATING ONLY LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING. WHILE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ENTERING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONTINUITY WITH THE COORDINATED TROPICAL POINTS FROM YESTERDAY SUPPORT VERY FEW CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE. The bottom line is that while it may be possible that the first named storm of the season is developing now in the Caribbean, the threat to the United States, and even to the Yucatan, is minimal. Even mainland Mexico, assuming the aforementioned scenario plays out, would likely not have much more than a strong tropical storm to deal with. I know there is great concern about this system affecting the oil slick region of the northern Gulf. I just don't see it happening with the available data. That does not make it impossible, just not very likely, not this time around. Elsewhere, another tropical wave is flaring up well east of the Leeward Islands and has some potential for development as it moves generally to the northwest this weekend. The computer models are fairly bullish on the idea of this becoming a tropical cyclone before it weakens in the sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean. It should stay well away from the Southeast coast but Bermuda might want to keep an eye on it in case inclement weather results as the system draws closer next week. I'll have more here as soon as the recon plane arrives in the Caribbean. For our Premium Services members, please don't forget that you have access to our daily live video outlook at 10am ET. If you have not logged in lately, check it out- there is a lot of information that I pack in to the presentation each morning. And of course, you can chat live with other members and myself before and after the video. Again, I'll have more here later today. UPDATED: 10:00 pm EDT, June 24, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me NHC GIVING CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF DEVELOPING The convection is beginning to increase with 93L in the Caribbean Sea. It may be that the broad system is finally trying to consolidate and pull itself together. However, it is still a fairly slow process. This bodes well for interests in the Yucatan and points in between. Fortunately we are not looking at too much potential for a hurricane to develop out of this- at least that's the way it looks right now. Conditions are favorable, but just not ready to pop just yet. Tomorrow will be an important day in the evolution of 93L as if it becomes more organized, it could become a tropical depression and an Air Force recon plane will investigate. If it remains disorganized, it should run aground over the Yucatan this weekend and hopefully never recover. We'll see. I'll have a full update tomorrow morning. UPDATED: 11:00 am EDT, June 24, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me 93L STILL HAS POTENTIAL BUT IT WILL NEED TO CONSOLIDATE FIRST All of the ingredients are seemingly in place. Water temps are plenty warm, upper level winds are favorable, a tropical wave is present, etc. So why is 93L not developing? I think it is because the system is stretched out with too much energy over too large an area. Tropical cyclones have to bundle their heat energy and focus it around a common area of low pressure in the center. This is not happening right now with 93L and until it does, it will not develop in to anything significant. Most of the computer models show little change in the system over the coming days with none suggesting a major threat to any land mass. The one thing to remember though is that even with a weather feature like this, heavy rains are already taking place. Portions of the islands in the western Caribbean can expect periods of tropical rain fall and gusty winds. Obviously any extended periods of heavy rain in Haiti would be a blow to the recovery efforts that are ongoing. For now, the energy remains spread out and I see no solid evidence that it is trying to focus and consolidate. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a couple of tropical waves are migrating westard with little development expected. It's still quite early in the hurricane season and despite the forecasts of it being a very active one, the tropics are just not quite ready to start producing storms and hurricanes. No complaints there, right? I'll have an update later tonight. In other news, I am going to be appearing as a guest on the Barometer Bob Show. It airs tonight at 8pm ET here: The Barometer Bob Show. I hope you can tune in and listen as I get to be the one interviewed this time around! I am looking forward to it. UPDATED: 6:15 pm EDT, June 23, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me 93L LARGE AND IN NO HURRY TO DEVELOP There is not a lot of news concerning the tropical wave, aka 93L, in the Caribbean Sea. It continues to slowly, and I mean slowly, organized as the large area of moisture, heat and energy tries to consolidate in to one common surface low. When and where that takes place will have a direct impact on the future track and intensity of the system. The latest run of some of the major computer models, such as the ECMWF, continue to indicate a significant storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico but the trend is towards the western Gulf as of late. None of this really matters right now and won't really until we see a low level center form. Odds favor this system developing considering the time of year, the location of the disturbance and the above normal water temps. For now and probably for the next day or two, it will be a slow process and it's something we'll just have to monitor. I'll have much more here on tomorrow morning's update. UPDATED: 6:00 am EDT, June 23, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me POTENTIAL GROWING NOW FOR 93L TO DEVELOP I wrote yesterday that little global model support existed for the tropical wave that is lurking in the eastern Caribbean Sea. That is beginning to change. A tremendous amount of energy is gathering in the region over water that is exceptionally warm for this time of year. What I am beginning to see in the computer models is beginning to concern me. First of all, the upper level pattern is evolving in a manner which would allow for development. A large area of light winds aloft is setting in across the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next several days and this could allow for the system, labeled 93L, to get going. The track suggests a movement across the Caribbean Sea and possibly towards the Yucatan peninsula. From there, the global models that recognize the potential for development turn the system northward in to the Gulf of Mexico. This is certainly going to cause a stir once news begins to spread of this potential. In fact, the very latest ECMWF model, linked here suggests we really need to keep an eye on the evolution of this feature. I am not going to sugar coat the reality here- there is potential for a significant storm or even a hurricane somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico over the next week. This is not a season to pretend the hurricanes away and worry about being sensational. Water temps are well above normal, ocean heat content is already very high and to see this kind of activity originating from an African tropical wave in June is very serious. In the short term, Haiti and surrounding land masses are in for periods of heavy, tropical rains. This is not at all what is needed down there in light of the devastating earthquake. It is going to take a while for this system to move past the area as it is not moving very fast. In addition, another strong tropical wave well east of the Lesser Antilles is beginning to flare up. It went from being bone-dry (embedded in fairly substantial dry air known as SAL for Saharan Air Layer) to bursting with convection in a hurry. There is going to be a lot to keep up with this last week of June. I'll post another update concerning 93L later today and will keep shorter bits of info going on our Facebook and Twitter pages. UPDATED: 8:10 am EDT, June 22, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me 93L HAS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT Once again a strong tropical wave is causing quite a stir among people who track such things. We have 93L cruising through the Caribbean with a medium chance of development but I am skeptical of any development at all. Why? Looking at the overall pattern, one would think it is possible that we could in fact see something come out of this. But the reality is that the major computer models, the reliable global models, such as the GFS, ECMWF and UKMET all show next to nothing happening- ever. Yes, the ECMWF was the one screaming "hurricane" in the Gulf as recently as 24 hours ago. It has backed waaaay off now. And the GFS shows absolutely nothing to be concerned with over the next week to ten days. As for the UKMET, it develops a weak tropical cyclone and then loses it shortly there after. Am I too reliant on the computer models? Perhaps so but when this trio of models are in agreement with each other, either for development or against it, then I pay pretty close attention. So for now, all we have is a fairly well organized tropical wave in a position to possibly develop but until I see further evidence to suggest that from the models and from simple observation, I will remain skeptical of any significant development. One item to note- the tropical wave will bring heavy rain and occasional gusty winds to portions of the Caribbean Sea as it moves westward. This includes Haiti which we are watching extra closely this hurricane season- any heavy rains there will be more problematic than in recent years for obvious reasons. Tonight on our weekly HurricaneTrack News/Talk program, we'll be interviewing author Jay Barnes. His list of books includes North Carolinas's Hurricane History, Florida's Hurricane History and now the recently published Hurricane Hazel in the Carolinas. We'll speak with Jay about not only the newest addition to his fine collection of work, but also how hurricanes have shaped the history of the nation and what may lie ahead in the years to come. We invite your feedback and questions for Jay. Please post on our Facebook page, Twitter feed or plain, old fashioned email. The program begins at 9pm ET right here on the homepage- we hope to see you then! UPDATED: 7:45 am EDT, June 21, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEK It looks as though the quiet start to the season could come to an end soon. The ECMWF model, one of the more reliable global computer models, has been indicating the possibility of tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean Sea for the past few days. Other models are also suggesting this but none seem to be as bullish as the ECMWF. The trigger would appear to be a tropical wave moving through the eastern Caribbean Sea now which has been labeled by the NHC as having a low chance of development over the next 48 hours. Beyond that time, perhaps four days from now, it should reach the western Caribbean and show signs of organization as an upper level high pressure area builds in across the region. This would provide the shelter needed from relentless strong winds aloft and allow for development. I am going to outline all of this on today's Weekly Hurricane Outlook video which will be broadcast live at 11am ET right here on the homepage. I will go over several of the models, including the ECMWF, to show what they are suggesting will happen. The bottom line is that it appears the pattern is going to change and allow for the potential for the first named storm of the season to develop over the coming week. This will be covered extensively on the video discussion at 11am. If you cannot watch live, it will be archived on Ustream for later viewing. UPDATED: 2:30 pm EDT, June 18, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me EXCELLENT WEEKEND AHEAD So far, we have been given a gift- and that gift is a calm hurricane season. I do not see that changing much anytime soon and certainly not over the weekend ahead. We'll be watching 92L and its parent tropical wave as it traverses westward through the Greater Antilles and towards south Florida. There could be enhanced rain chances by Sunday for Florida but nothing extreme. None of the reliable computer models indicate that 92L will become anything more than perhaps a tropical depression in the southern Gulf of Mexico. That is several days away if it happens at all. So enjoy the beaches, keep an eye on the normal summertime weather and we'll see you back here on Monday morning with a complete update and the new weekly Hurricane Outlook video at 11am ET. UPDATED: 1:00 pm EDT, June 17, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me ANOTHER COUNTRY HEARD FROM: UK MET OFFICE ISSUES STRONG FORECAST There is now a fairly solid concensus among the major climate forecasters that this season could be one for the record books. We have heard from Colorado State University, NOAA, the ECMWF folks, Accuweather and now the UK Met Office in England is out with their forecast. They too are calling for an extreme number of storms for the Atlantic Basin between July and the end of November. Let me make a very important point about all of this. I realize more than you know that numbers are just numbers. These headlines make for great, well, headlines. But what can you, the average coastal homeowner or business owner take away from these forecasts? Think of it this way: in any given year, there is always the potential for an "it only takes one" scenario like Andrew showed us in 1992. But in a year like this, which is very similar in set up to 2005, there are likely to be many "it only takes one" chances. In 2005 Katrina, Rita and Wilma were enormously destructive hurricanes for the United States. There were also plenty of others that year affecting much of the entire western Atlantic Basin. So while the numbers do not help in terms of knowing who is at greatest risk, it appears there will be a lot more darts in the cache to throw at the dart board. It seems almost inevitable that at least one will hit the bulls eye. I wish I knew where that bulls eye was but for now, we have to assume it could be in your back yard and be ready for when the bleep hits the fan. Speaking of that, so far, we are looking good. The tropics are calm on the Atlantic side and only a dead tropical depression and weak tropical storm to deal with in the east Pacific. What was TD #2-E is bringing copious amounts of rain to portions of the Mexican coastline but that seems to be fading as the system weakens. Meanwhile TS Blas, which formed this morning farther off the coast of Mexico, is moving steadily away over open water. It will die off in a matter of days over the cooler Pacific waters. I am going to be watching the far eastern Atlantic again in the coming days for possible low latitude development. The GFS has been fairly consistent run to run in developing a weak tropical system over the next week or so. Other models have not come on board with this scenario just yet but we'll see. The tropical waves are vigorous for this time of year and it won't be long before one of them goes the distance. I will also track the remnants of 92L west-northwest as they begin to interact with the northeast Caribbean and points west. It looks as though this wave could affect Florida in about five days with increased moisture, dewpoints and rain chances. Development in to a tropical storm seems unlikely at this point. I'll have much more here tomorrow morning. UPDATED: 8:45 am EDT, June 16, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me 92L MAKING SOMEWHAT OF A LAST STAND- BUT CAN IT HOLD? As if offended by all the talk of its demise, 92L has made a bold comeback over night and has developed deep convection that has persisted for the last several hours. Upper level winds are supposedly too strong for additional development but with a void of upper air data in the open oceans (weather balloons are not launched over the vast oceans), it may be that models are over-doing the shear to some extent. The key now is to see if the deep thunderstorms hang around or if they in fact get blown off again to the northeast. We'll just have to wait and see. One thing that this recent burst of convection does is to keep the tropical wave energized and not allow it to further weaken. This has implications down the road as it moves farther and farther west. The islands of the Caribbean will be the first to be impacted by the passsage of the tropical wave in a couple of days. Some of the computer models are suggesting the possibility of the system organizing a little more as it nears the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. This region is much more climatologically favored this time of year than is the eastern or central Atlantic. Elsewhere, the east Pacific is beginning to get quite active with a pair of tropical disturbances to monitor for additional development. Both are located just off the coast of western Mexico and could become tropical depressions as they move slowly in the region. Neither looks to be a major threat other than heavy rain fall for portions of the southern Mexican coastline. I'll have another update here this early evening on 92L and we'll see then if the convection has fallen off again or holds steady. I'll also have tid-bits of info posted on our Facebook page and Twitter feed througout the day. UPDATED: 7:45 am EDT, June 15, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me GLOBAL MODELS CORRECT THIS TIME AROUND There was apparently a reason why the global models did not show 92L developing in to anything significant. The reason being that, in fact, it looks like the system will not develop much over the coming days. As impressive as it appeared on satellite imagery, it's just too early in the season to look for east Atlantic tropical cyclone formation. Upper level winds are still just too strong and other subtle environmental conditions are not in place. However, the tropical wave has an obvious well defined low pressure center associated with it and the entire mass of energy will move off to the west to west-northwest over the next several days. We'll have to wait and see if more conducive conditions await farther west, perhaps in the western Caribbean Sea. The very fact that this system looked (and still does to some extent) so well organized for this time of year is important because it signifies a change in the deep tropics over last season. Instead of dry, stable, sinking air, which was the rule for most of last year, we are seeing a much more favorable pattern of lower pressures, higher sea surface temps and overall upward motion in the atmosphere. Once we get closer to August, I believe things will become very active and remain so through the rest of the season. 92L is a warning shot for us to take notice that the season could be very serious. For now, we are doing okay in that no significant development is expected with this feature, or elsewhere, for the next few days at least. Tonight on HurricaneTrack News/Talk, we'll discuss 92L and take a look at what lies ahead for the rest of June. We'll also re-cap our recent extremely successful Stormfest event which was held in Wilmington, NC this past Saturday. Join us if you can at 9pm ET right here on the homepage. UPDATED: 8:00 am EDT, June 14, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITH 92L AS TROPICS BECOME ACTIVE There has been an increase in convection or thunderstorm activity with 92L over night. Deep tropical thunderstorms are what drive the heat engine of tropical cyclones. Without convection and upward motion in the atmosphere, the chain reaction cycle cannot be sustained. It will be important now to see if the convection persists or if it comes in bursts. Persistent convection will indicate a steadily strengthening system while bursting indicates one that is struggling. All of the factors that lead to additional development seem to be in place and thus the NHC is indicating a 60% chance that this will go on to become at least a tropical depression over the next 48 hours. In fact, sea surface temps along the path of 92L are running about two degrees F above normal and are only getting warmer. Upper level winds are favorable in the region as a large area of upper level high pressure builds out over the eastern Atlantic. This acts to shield tropical systems from strong winds high in the atmosphere, giving them room to grow and strengthen. What is odd, however, is the lack of development shown in computer models such as the GFS, ECMWF or UKMET. These are typically reliable models for picking up on the birth of tropical cyclones (tropical cyclogenesis) but are notably reluctant to develop 92L very much. I am very interested to see what happens- whether or not these models are that good and nothing much happens with this system or if it in fact goes on to become a tropical storm, how the models missed it. As I said, there are no obvious reasons for this not to develop but it is extremely early in the season for us to be talking about central Atlantic, deep tropical development. I guess we'll see as the week progresses. I will be producing the weekly Hurricane Outlook video at 11am ET this morning. The live broadcast will feature numerous satellite photos, graphics and model output charts to explain what is going on with 92L and what the future may hold. I will also show another system coming off of Africa now that is every bit as impressive as 92L was a few days ago. We really are at the beginning of what appears to be a very active hurricane season ahead. This is not hype anymore, the writing is on the wall and I will demonstrate as much of that as I can on today's video update. Again, if you cannot watch live, no problem- the video will be saved on our Ustream channel for viewing anytime. UPDATED: 9:20 pm EDT, June 13, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me 92L LOOKS IMPRESSIVE BUT WILL IT DEVELOP? The presence of 92L has generated a lot of buzz on the hurricane blogosphere. People are concerned, they want to know if it will affect the Gulf of Mexico and many are just interested in what's going on. The key development tonight is that the system remains well organized but is not in a hurry to develop. In fact, I remain somewhat baffled at why the major computer models, those such as the GFS, ECMWF and UKMET, are not very bullish on this system getting very strong. Perhaps it is the time of year and this is why it's so difficult for storms to form east of the Caribbean until later in the season. Perhaps the models are missing the higher heat content this season. I do not know. They might be spot on and this well organized wave remains that way until it reaches a more climatologically favored area. The good news is that we have plenty of time to monitor conditions and react accordingly. I hope you can join me tomorrow morning for the Weekly Hurricane Outlook video which I broadcast live from my office at 11am ET. I will go over, in great detail, the latest on 92L and what the future may hold. If you cannot watch live, the broadcast will be saved on our Ustream channel for later viewing. For our Premium Services members, be sure to tune in an hour earlier for the Daily Hurricane Outlook and chat live before and after the video. I will spend a good deal of my time going over computer models and other tools to examine what might happen with this system and the week ahead. As always, please feel free to post your thoughts or questions on our Facebook page or via Twitter. Things are starting to get active now and we'll do our best to keep you informed. Remember- use other sources as well to help round out your knowledge base. I'll talk about some of the more reliable sites that we trust year in and year out for consistent hurricane info. UPDATED: 9:45 am EDT, June 13, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me TRACKING 92L IN THE DEEP TROPICS- POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
Something very important is taking place out the east-central Atlantic that could have a significant impact on the rest of the hurricane season. A well defined tropical wave with a broad area of low pressure has flared up between 30 and 40 degrees west longitide. The NHC is giving it a medium chance of development citing favorable environmental conditions. The SHIPS intensity model goes so far as to make this system a hurricane over the next few days as it moves steadily WNW over the open Atlantic. Sea surface temps are much above normal and upper level winds have become exceedingly favorable in the region. There is every reason to believe that this will become our first named storm- Alex.The significance of this happening is important. This time of year we would look for development much farther to the west, in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico. We would also look just off the Southeast coast for old frontal boundaries that stall out and spin up tropical storms. This is common during the early part of the season. What is not common is to see tropical waves coming off of Africa in June and then developing in the eastern Atlantic. This is very likely a sign that the season means business. To get deep tropics development now is rare and is about 60 days ahead of schedule. With sea surface temps running well above normal between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, it makes sense that this would happen, but I did not think it would be this early in the season. For now, the disturbance, officially labeled as 92L, should slowly continue to organize. It could become a tropical depression within a day as long as nothing un-foreseen happens and it falls apart. From there, we'll just wait and see. It is many days away from the Windwards and Leewards and we will have plenty of time to monitor how everything plays out. I will post another update on 92L this evening and have a full analysis tomorrow morning via live video for our Premium Services subscribers at 10am ET followed by the weekly outlook video at 11am ET right here on the homepage. I will also post short updates frequently on our Facebook page and Twitter feed. UPDATED: 12:40 pm EDT, June 10, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me 10 DAYS IN AND SO FAR, SO GOOD One third of the month is gone and so far, we have had no tropical troubles. Obviously, there was an exception with TS Agatha that formed in the east Pacific, wreaking havoc on portions of Guatemala. Otherwise, in the Atlantic Basin, things have been nice and quiet. This is to be expected this early in the season, despite the predictions of way above normal activity. In fact, on Monday, during my weekly Hurricane Outlook video, I will show you some data that strongly supports this being a very busy season indeed. For now, everything remains rather tranquil from Africa to Texas and all points in between. The tropical wave we were watching yesterday has succumbed to strong upper level winds and has lost most of its deep thunderstorms. We'll see what happens once it reaches the western Caribbean and/or east Pacific in a few days. Just a reminder for our southeast North Carolina visitors, the NWS is sponsoring Stormfest 2010 in Wilmington this Saturday. It is a free event to learn about severe weather and hurricanes and will be held from 10am until 4pm at the Cape Fear Museum on Market Street. We'll be there along with numerous other agencies to talk hurricanes and severe weather and how both impact southeast North Carolina. UPDATED: 9:40 am EDT, June 9, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT TO IMPACT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS It is a sign of what lies ahead. A strong and quite vigorous tropical wave is about to pass through the Windward Islands. Its effects will be felt by means of showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds. The NHC has outlined the region with its low probability circle, and in fact, gives it almost no chance of additional development. What makes this feature interesting is the fact that it is flaring up like this in early June. We would normally not look for Atlantic tropical wave development until later in July or August. Warmer than normal sea surface temps, a more moist overall environment and lower than normal pressures at the surface are all likely coming together slowly but surely to give credibility to the forecasts of an extremely active season. We'll watch this wave of low pressure as it traverses the Caribbean Sea over the next few days. Some computer models are showing hints of more organization once it reaches the western Caribbean or east Pacific. For now, our friends in the Windwards need to be aware of changing weather conditions throughout the day. I'll have another update here tomorrow morning. 
UPDATED: 10:00 am EDT, June 7, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me ANOTHER QUIET WEEK SO IT'S TIME TO THINK PREPAREDNESS The tropics look like they will behave this week, typical of June even in an active year as this one has been predicted to be. So with the absence of activity, now is a great time to plan ahead and at least consider what actions you'll take when a hurricane heads your way. Here in southeast North Carolina, where I live, we are getting ready for Stormfest- an event organized by the National Weather Service to be held on Saturday in Wilmington. Jesse Bass is coming down from Virginia to join me as we participate in the day-long event at the Cape Fear Museum on Market Street. Local emergency management, the American Red Cross, HAM Radio interests, New Hanover Regional Medical Center, the National Weather Service and other agencies from around the area, including our major media outlets, will be a part of the event. It is a great opportunity for anyone living in southeast North Carolina or the Myrtle Beach area of South Carolina to come out and get caught up on hurricane preparedness. You'll have a chance to interact one-on-one with the very people who are involved with decision making, reporting the news, forecasting and more. Jesse and I will have the HIRT Chevy Tahoe along with our 5-meter wind tower and remote camera units on display. The event is from 10am until 4pm on Saturday. There is no charge to attend. We hope to see you there. And- hopefully other events similar to this one are being held elsewhere around the coastal regions of the country. I know budgets are tight to non-existent but the more people plan now, the better the outcome can be later. If you know of a scheduled event in your community, please post its info on our Facebook page. Tomorrow night on HurricaneTrack News/Talk, we'll have Tim Armstrong and Mike Farrow on as our guests. Tim is with the National Weather Service and has helped to plan and organize the Stormfest event. Mike is the program director for WGNI 102.7 here in Wilmington and has more than his share of experience in dealing with hurricanes from the media perspective. Our topic will be the Stormfest event as well as a quick run-down of any goings on in the tropics. That's tomorrow night, LIVE, right here on the homepage at 9pm ET. Also, after the event on Saturday, we are planning a meet and greet for anyone in the area to come by and get to know one another. We'll meet up at Longhorn's Steak House in Mayfaire Town Center. Read all about it here. Don't forget, I will be broadcasting the Weekly Hurricane Outlook right here at 11am ET today. If you miss it, I will archive it on our Ustream channel and link to it below. UPDATED: 9:00 am EDT, June 4, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me TROPICS ARE QUIET FOR 1ST WEEKEND OF JUNE As we approach the first weekend of June, and the hurricane season, I am pleased to say that all looks good across the Atlantic Basin and east Pacific. I do not see any areas of organized deep convection, or thunderstorms, that look to develop in to a tropical storm or hurricane. None of the major computer models depict this happening anytime soon either. The weekend looks great, nice and hot for coastal areas- perfect for heading to the beach! I also want to mention an event that is coming up for Southeast North Carolina residents. Next weekend, Saturday, June 12, the National Weather Service is sponsoring/organizing what is called Stormfest. It is an opportunity for anyone living in and around the Wilmington, NC area to learn about storm preparedness and in particular, hurricanes. Here's what makes the event so unique- it is being attended by several major media outlets, including WWAY, WECT and WGNI. In addition, local emergency management, Red Cross, US Coast Guard and of course, HurricaneTrack.com, will be participating in the event. It is open to the public, costs nothing and the best part of all, in my opinion, it will be held at the Cape Fear Museum of History and Science. Jesse Bass is coming down from Virginia to join me as we display the HIRT Chevy Tahoe, our wind tower and other equipment used to track and study hurricanes. We are pleased that the initiative was taken by the NWS to organize this important event. For more information, check out the link below. Also- on HurricaneTrack News/Talk for Tuesday night, our guests will be Tim Armstrong of the Wilmington NWS and Mike Farrow, program director for Cumulus Radio here in Wilmington. We'll discuss Stormfest with Tim and Mike during the hour-long program. More on that on Monday's write-up. UPDATED: 9:30 am EDT, June 1, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me NEW HURRICANE SEASON, NEW SET OF CHALLENGES June 1 has rolled around again and here we are at the start of another Atlantic hurricane season. The forecasts are out, most credible agencies are citing numerous factors that could lead to a potentially very active season. Let's take a look at some issues that could make this season very challenging for more reasons that you might expect. Number one concern: Haiti. If a tropical depression parks itself over Haiti and dumps the kind of rain fall that we have come to expect over the years, that nation will be tormented beyond belief in the wake of the devastating earthquake several months ago. The fact of the matter is that Haiti could be affected by multiple systems this season from now through late November. I rarely use sensational remarks but Haiti and its precarious situation scares me- it is an epic disaster waiting to happen on the heels of an already unpleasant event. We will be watching Haiti very closely this season. Second concern: Gulf of Mexico. The oil crisis in the Gulf speaks for itself. There is so much unknown about how a hurricane or tropical storm might affect the situation that it lends itself to getting out of control in a hurry. What I mean is if we get a category four or five hurricane (or any hurricane probably), I can see the rumor mill starting up that spreads false information about all kinds of nightmarish scenarios as the oil and hurricane do battle. My belief and hope is that a hurricane could be just what the doctor ordered and could actually help to clean out the marshes and drastically dillute and disperse the oil. On the other hand, Gulf of Mexico sea surface temps are running well above normal in most locations (see yesterday's video linked below) as they were in 2005. I think the Gulf is our #1 concern in terms of American interests this season. A lot is riding on what happens over the next few weeks with the oil blow out. It is only a matter of time until we find out in real life what happens when a hurricane intersects. I caution though, people need to read the facts and not get carried away by vicious rumors and false information that is certain to crop up on the Internet when that hurricane comes calling. Third concern: Florida. It has been five years since ANY hurricane has hit Florida. Two things have happened in those five years 1) lots of people have moved to Florida who have zero hurricane experience and 2) lots of people moved out of Florida who left behind foreclosed, empty homes. Both situations warrant concern. Obviously people who have never dealt with a hurricane, especially a major hurricane, have no idea what life can be like after such an event. As for the empty homes, and make no mistake, there are 1000s of them, condos too, that are unkept, half-built or in need of repair. Who will deal with that issue when the time comes? I hope we don't have to find out but hope won't keep hurricanes away. We'll be watching how this plays out very closely especially in south Florida where the concentration of empty homes and condos is greatest. I know this commentary is not painting a rosy picture but it's time to wake up. Putting your head in the sand and getting upset about the very thought of hurricanes isn't going to help. Education, preparedness and action will make the difference. It's that simple. Not everyone can afford $50,000 worth of hurricane mitigation. But everyone who is reading this can read and learn about their specific vulnerability. From there you can formulate a plan based on YOUR situation, not your neighbor's (although working together with neighbors is a great way to deal with the aftermath). It's a fact- those with the least amount of money are the most at risk. At the very least, figure out how you will get your family through a hurricane disaster safely. If you need to evacuate due to storm surge or high wind (mobile homes, etc.) then plan NOW where you will go. Surely there are friends and/or family close by (50 miles or less) who can take you in. Our lives are so busy these days with work, kids, school, more work, kids' activities, Facebook, dinner, family issues, you name it! All I am asking is that you take a minute to ponder this one simple question: what will I do if a life-changing hurricane is heading my way? It is fairly easy to deal with a 80 or 100 mph hurricane as long as common sense prevails. Once you get in to the major hurricane categories- above 110 mph, then things take a lot more planning. Look back at Katrina, Andrew, Hugo, Camille, Ike, Rita, Donna, etc. Consider how you would deal with such an event and do the best you can. FEMA is not going to show up and hand out bricks of 100 dollar bills. You must take responsibility for yourself so that those who are truly at the mercy of the storm can be helped- possibly by you! Hurricanes are serious. They can change the course of history in a single day. They have shaped our nation in more ways than you can ever imagine. For the next six months, possibly longer, we will watch and wait for their formation. When they show up, let's be ready. UPDATED: 12:30 pm EDT, May 31, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me TOMORROW NIGHT HURRICANETRACK NEWS/TALK RETURNS WITH SPECIAL GUEST, JOE BASTARDI Tomorrow begins the Atlantic hurricane season and to start things off, we are firing up our third season of HurricaneTrack News/Talk tomorrow night. The LIVE broadcast will begin at 8pm ET right here on the homepage. For this one broadcast only, we'll feature video as well as the usual audio broadcast. Join Mike Watkins, Jesse Bass and me as we discuss the season ahead and why experts are calling for it to be so busy. All of that will be during the 8 O'clock hour. Then, at 9pm, we will welcome Accuweather's Joe Bastardi to the program for his insight on all things hurricanes. We invite you to post your questions, thoughts, suggestions, etc. on our Facebook page and/or our Twitter page. We'll try to integrate as many as possible in to tomorrow night's program. Can't listen/watch live? No problem, it will be archived on Ustream for later viewing. I would like to welcome our newest sponsor, PhysicianWork to the family. We have been working on the sponsorship since last Fall and are pleased to have their support this year. Check out their site via the logo on the right hand column. Our medical professional visitors may find it quite useful and perhaps familiar. Again, our many thanks to PhysicianWork for their forward thinking and support of our efforts. We hope to see as many of you as possible tomorrow night! The program begins at 8pm right here on the homepage. Our Premium Services members can join us via live chat on the Premium Services homepage. UPDATED: 9:45 am EDT, May 31, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me WEEKLY HURRICANE OUTLOOK VIDEO BEGINS TODAY- 11am ET Today marks the beginning of a new feature here that I think people are going to get a lot of use out of. It is called the Weekly Hurricane Outlook. It is a live video broadcast where by I will go over any potential development in the tropics, discuss important aspects of the season such as sea surface temperatures and dust outbreaks off of Africa and much more. The video will be broadcast via Ustream in the player below. If you are not able to watch live, no worries, each week's video will be archived and linked to. Starting with today's video, I will post a quick summary of what I plan to go over- so you'll know what to expect. Going forward, I invite our audience to submit questions or topics for discussion via our Facebook page or our Twitter feed. Yes, plain old-fashioned email works fine too. This week's video will go over sea surface temps, a look at ex-TS Agatha, current conditions across the Atlantic Basin and a look down the road via computer models for the next five days. UPDATED: 11:30 am EDT, May 24, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me LARGE OCEAN STORM OFF SOUTHEAST COAST NOT LIKELY TO POSE TOO MUCH OF A THREAT TO LAND The storm system that most computer models predicted would form has indeed done so and is still sitting well off the coast of the Southeast United States. Latest satellite images show that it has become better organized overall but still lacks a core of deep thunderstorms. In other words, the storm is quite spread out and does not appear to be getting too strong too quick. While it is an interesting feature to watch on satellite, it should pose little problems for the coast as it remains offshore just kind of looping around. I do not see anything in the major computer models that leads me to believe this will ever affect land directly. So does its existence at all mean we are definitely in for a rough hurricane season? It is my opinion that it does not. Why? First of all, this storm system formed because of larger scale weather originating off the North American continent. It was a product of the upper level environment more than anything and not due to a tropical wave. This is important because tropical waves, which are born over Africa in most cases, have a lot of heat energy associated with them. This results in the subequent tropical storm/hurricane being warm core with the strongest winds closest to the center. In the case of the system over the Atlantic today, its winds are far more spread out and not concentrated near the center. Second, it is not uncommon to see this kind of development when powerful upper level features work out over the Atlantic- whether it be May or September. However, it were later in the hurricane season, there would be more of a chance for this system to transition to warm core by taking advantage of much warmer water temps. Bottom line: while it is likely to be an active hurricane season, I do not see this system as being a symptom of such. When we get true tropical development, that will be the sign that the horse has left the barn. I'll have more here throughout the week. I am currently in Ft. Lauderdale for the FL hurricane conference and will post updates here and on our Facebook and Twitter pages. UPDATED: 12:00 pm EDT, May 22, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me ATLANTIC NON-TROPICAL STORM, ALSO KNOWN AS 90L, NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF AN ISSUE The system that we are watching well off the Southeast coast remains disorganized and will probably remain that way. The NHC did designate it as an area of interest, also known as an Invest, and labeled it 90L. For those who do not know what that means, the NHC will officially label an area of suspect weather with a number, 90-99, and the letter "L" for Atlantic. This allows them to run internal computer models, allocate satellite resources to the system and even schedule recon flights to further investigate. This system, 90L, is the first such designation for 2010. As far as its future, most computer models show only modest development since water temps are not really warm enough to sustain deep tropical thunderstorms. We may see it flare up for a time as it approaches the Gulf Stream early next week. The impact to land looks minimal with only an increase in rain chances and rougher than normal surf. The ocean storm should move on out to sea later next week and that will be the end of it. I'll post another update on this feature tomorrow morning before departing for Florida and the hurricane conference in Ft. Lauderdale. UPDATED: 11:45 am EDT, May 21, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me WATCHING THE ATLANTIC FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SUB-TROPICAL STORM AS CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LESS LIKELY All of the major computer models, from the U.S. generated GFS to the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, indicate that a vigorous low pressure area will develop over the Atlantic well northeast of Puerto Rico. The genesis of this low is not the same process that we see when looking out for tropical storms and hurricanes. Therefore, it is likely to be non-tropical at first with a chance to work in the deep convection, or thunderstorm activity, needed to drive the heat engine of a more tropical-like system. What is most interesting is the models are showing it moving back towards the North Carolina coast over the next several days. In particular, the ECMWF shows a fairly significant storm, whether it be tropical or not, impacting the NC coast by early next week. Other models are not as strong and seem to have issues focusing the possible development of deeper convection. Water temps off the Carolina coast are not warm enough to sustain any serious tropical thunderstorms though the Gulf Stream might help if the system moves over it slowly. This is something that we'll need to watch since it could mean a higher chance of rain, windy conditions and rough surf. I see nothing that warrants much concern outside of a foul weather day or two. The other area that was a candidate for possible pre-season development is not looking as likely anymore. None of the models show anything beyond a weak low forming as conditions just aren't there yet, outside of warmer than normal water temps. This spells much better news for Haiti especially since we rather not see any organized tropical systems nearing that area for a long time. Sure, they need rain fall, but many inches of it at once is not the way to go. So far, things look much better for Haiti over the next week to 10 days at least. I'll post more here tomorrow and Sunday- then, I am off to Ft. Lauderdale for the FL hurricane conference all next week. Other short posts and pieces of info will be posted on our Twitter and Facebook pages. UPDATED: 11:30 am EDT, May 19, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me A CHANCE WE GET TWO NAMED STORMS BEFORE JUNE 1? LET'S TAKE A LOOK There is at least a chance that we could see two named storms before we ever reach June 1. The upcoming pattern just might support such a rare occurrence but I am not sold on it just yet. Here are the facts: Sea surface temps are running anywhere from .5 to almost 2.0 degrees C above normal across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. This anomaly is fairly significant but it is not enough, by itself, to produce tropical storms and hurricanes. Looking at the latest computer models, specifically the GFS and ECMWF, both of which are pretty good at sniffing out development, we see that both indicate the chance for development in two different areas. The GFS is forecasting a low pressure area to form in about five days well to the norheast of Puerto Rico. Taking a look at the FSU Cyclone Phase Diagram for this event, which helps to determine whether or not a cyclone or storm system is warm core (tropical) or cold core (non-tropical), we see that initially, this low would be warm core and fairly symmetric- meaning it could warrant being named if in fact it forms at all. However, the system would quickly move over cooler waters and likely transition in to an eztra-tropical storm, losing its warm, tropical characteristics. Both the GFS and the ECMWF "see" this system developing within about five days. It will be something to keep an eye on but doubt it would play any role in the weather for land areas. The next area to watch will be the SW Caribbean Sea. The GFS has been forecasting the development of a weak tropical cyclone in this region for the last several days. However, the run to run consistency has not been very solid, meaning that sometimes it shows up well organized, other times it does not. The argument for development is also the fact that a more favorable upper level wind pattern should set up across the Caribbean Sea over the next week to 10 days. But this is uncertain to be sure and thus I believe that anything that does try to get going in the Caribbean would be more of a rain maker than anything else. However, this poses a big problem for Haiti should any such development get too close to that country. Even a tropical wave or depression could bring several inches of rain to the region in short order- so we'll want to keep an eye on anything that tries to organize in the Caribbean Sea this season. The bottom line is that we are approaching the start to the Atlantic hurricane season. Water temps are running at record levels above normal in a good deal of the Atlantic Basin and so the potential for a very busy season lies ahead. This time of year is not favored for development but it cannot be ruled out. The good news is that nothing appears to be threatening the Gulf of Mexico and we see nothing that suggests a hurricane is in the works anytime soon. I guess the real concern is again for Haiti as any rain maker will be trouble for recovery efforts and the ongoing post-earthquake crisis. I'll have another full update here on Friday with occasional pieces of info, links and quick thoughts posted on our Facebook page and via Twitter. UPDATED: 10:00 am EDT, May 17, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me NEXT WEEK, THINGS GET BUSY, BUT HOPEFULLY NOT IN THE TROPICS As we make our way through the last couple of weeks of May, things are going to get a little busier, but probably not in the tropics. What I am talking about is related to hurricane preparedness activities. Sunday begins National Hurricane Preparedness Week which will run all of next week. Also on Sunday, the Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference kicks off in Ft. Lauderdale. National Hurricane Preparedness Week consists of five major themes in understanding and preparing for hurricanes. The week will start on Sunday with a look at hurricane history. Monday through Wednesday will address the main hazards of hurricanes. Thursday takes a look at the forecasting of hurricanes with Friday and Saturday dedicated to preparing and acting on those preparedness plans. I have posted a link to the NHC's preparedness homepage below. Each day next week, I will have my own thoughts concerning each topic that is covered on the NHC site. As I mentioned, the FL hurricane conference begins on Sunday with key training classes for emergency planners from a variety of business, industry and government sectors. I will head down to be a part of the exhibit showcase which is next Wednesday and Thursday. The conference exhibit will allow me (I will also be joined by Mike Watkins who lives close by) to interact with the same local emergency management and law enforcement officials that we would encounter should a hurricane threaten any of the represented counties. It is crucial for us to be able to work freely on the ground to deploy the wind tower and our remotely operated camera units. Developing personal, first-hand relationships with the people in charge of managing a hurricane emergency is paramount to our success- and safety. Mike and I both look forward to meeting new people and seeing familiar faces in the process. Then, before you know it, we'll be at the forefront of the Atlantic hurricane season. Just a reminder that on Monday, May 31, I will begin the weekly Hurricane Outlook video produced live right here on the homepage. This is going to be an exciting new feature similar to the daily outlook video that I produce for our Premium Services members. I'll discuss more details of the format later this week. In the tropics, the east Pacific hurricane season is officially under way but there are no areas of concern now or for the next several days at least. I'll have another post here on Wednesday. UPDATED: 11:30 am EDT, May 15, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS TODAY- AND ALL IS QUIET May 15 is the official beginning to the east Pacific hurricane season. Conditions are typically a little more favorable on that side of Central America at this time of year, thus the two week head start on the Atlantic Basin. The NHC reports that there are an average of 15 named storms in the east Pacific each year with nine of them becoming hurricanes. We might see four major (category 3 or higher) hurricanes form in this region, depending on how busy the Atlantic is. Most east Pacific hurricanes will form and track westward towards the cooler waters of the open ocean, well away from Mexico and Central America. Some, however, will get caught by a weakness in the large high pressure that reigns over the eastern North Pacific and turn northward in to land. The resort areas of Mexico, including the Baja Peninsula, are at risk of being hit by hurricanes, sometimes intense ones, in any year. As with the Atlantic, there is no way to know with any degree of certainty how much risk there is for a specific area. I will post regular updates on any development potential for the east Pacific and will link to tracking maps when there is a named storm. Also, beginning May 31 with the new Weekly Hurricane Outlook video broadcast, I will provide a more detailed discussion for that region. Anyone with vacation, fishing or diving plans along the west coast of Mexico up through the Baja will want to keep up with the latest info. That being said, there is no indication of any tropical storm formation in the east Pacific in the near future. I would not expect to see development until probably the last week of May when a more favorable upward motion pattern emerges. I'll have more here on Monday. UPDATED: 10:45 am EDT, May 10, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me COMING MAY 31: WEEKLY HURRICANE OUTLOOK VIDEO BROADCAST We are adding something new and hopefully very useful to our homepage starting Monday, May 31. It is called the Weekly Hurricane Outlook. I will host it and produce it from my office each Monday morning at 11am ET- LIVE. It will be broadcast via Ustream and anyone can watch. The outlook will be used to go over any potential development areas in the tropics- including east Pacific. When things are slow, I will use the video to discuss the many pieces to the hurricane puzzle, preparedness info, websites that we use and other related topics. I think this will be a great opportunity for our audience to learn something about more than just when the next tropical storm will form. And when we do have development, I will have an incredible set of tools to pull from in order to outline what the future holds. If you can't watch live, no worries, the video will be archived immediately on Ustream and YouTube with a link posted to each week's video below this commentary block. The first Weekly Outlook will be broadcast on Monday, May 31. Then, on Tuesday, June 1, at 8pm ET, we will produce a special edition of HurricaneTrack News/Talk- also a video broadcast. Among our scheduled guests is Accuweather's Joe Bastardi. We will also have a really interesting (and possibly quite humorous) "man on the street" type interview segment that I will shoot when I am in Florida in two weeks for the hurricane conference in Ft. Lauderdale. Mike Watkins and Jesse Bass will co-host with me and we'll open up the live chat feature for constant interaction. I will post more about the broadcast as we get closer to the date. And for a quick look at the tropics- none of the major computer models suggest any significant development in the Atlantic, Caribbean of Gulf of Mexico over the coming week to ten days. I'll have more here later in the week. UPDATED: 9:30 am EDT, May 5, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me OIL SLICK VS HURRICANES: A RACE AGAINST TIME It is a race against time in the Gulf of Mexico- and not just for the obvious reasons that you may think. Not only is the effort to mitigate the impact of the oil leak critical in terms of actually stopping the leak and cleaning up the mess, it is also a race against the hurricane clock. As you know, hurricane season officially begins on June 1. Obviously the folks working in the Gulf to solve the crisis know this too. So what are the odds that a hurricane will form sometime during the remainder of this month? 
Looking at a chart from Dr. Chris Landsea from his work at the Hurricane Research Division, there have been 18 tropical storms to form during the month of May since 1851 (note that in 2007, there was sub-tropical storm Andrea in early May). Of those tropical storms, four went on to become hurricanes. The strongest of those hurricanes was "Able" in 1951 which became a category three hurricane just off the Outer Banks of North Carolina- the earliest in the year that has ever happened. No hurricanes have hit the United States during the month of May. Bottom line- the odds greatly favor NOT having a hurricane form over the next few weeks- based solely on past data. However, past data does not always dictate the future though it can be a handy guide. Let's now look at the pattern over the next two weeks for clues as to what might happen.According to the GFS computer model (last night's run), upper level winds at 120 hours through the next week are forecast to remain highly unfavorable for development across the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean. Even a look at the 10-day forecast shows strong westerly winds over the Gulf but you do notice the possibility of an upper-level high building over the southwest Caribbean. This is fairly far out in time for the model to resolve accurately, but the pattern does look hostile for development between now and May 15. What about after that time period? Let's look at the latest MJO forecast also from the GFS. The brown colors generally mean sinking air or lack of tropical convection. The green areas indicate regions of favorable upward motion in the tropics which can lead to deep thunderstorm development. The forecast shows that after the 15th the chances of a more favorable pattern could be setting up. This seems especially true as we get to around May 20. This MJO pulse can be tracked using several other methods but for now, this simple graphic will suffice. While there is no solid indication of tropical storm formation in the Atlantic Basin later in the month, it cannot be ruled out. What is more likely to happen is that we see a named storm form in the east Pacific. That region's season actually begins on May 15 and water temps in the east-Pac are plenty warm. It is something to keep an eye on and with the availability of these wonderful tools via the Internet, we can keep close tabs on any chances of development. Now, more than probably any season in recent memory, it is critical to keep hurricanes out of the Gulf of Mexico. Obviously no one can stop one if it is coming, but being able to sniff out development chances will at least help to give as much advanced warning as possible for the efforts underway on the sea as well as on shore. I'll have more here on Monday morning.  UPDATED: 8:30 am EDT, May 3, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TRULY GETTING OUT OF HAND I have never seen the sea surface temperature anomaly map look like the one below. It is the NHC's Reynolds method anomaly map which is updated once per week. This map gives an excellent representation of what is going on with SSTs across the Atlantic Basin and looking at today's edition, it is alarming. Such an enormous area, from Africa all the way to the western Caribbean, is at or above 1 degree Celsius above normal. That alone is enough to warrant serious concern for the upcoming hurricane season. However, the fact that a growing area of 2 degrees Celsius is now manifesting itself raises the stakes even higher. While it is true that sea surface temps alone do not cause intense hurricanes, seeing them this warm makes me wonder what will happen once the upper level winds relax and we do in fact get a hurricane to develop? Even the Gulf of Mexico, which was running well below normal until recently, is now mostly cleaned out of those cold anomalies. This has huge implications for the efforts to thwart the oil leak crisis in the Gulf- the last thing they need is a hurricane to come plowing through. So what is causing this incredible warm up in the Atlantic? I have discussed this earlier in the year but will address it again. Basically, lower than normal pressures in the sub-tropical Atlantic are causing the trade winds to be weaker and are thus not blowing across the deep tropics as strong, resulting in less evaporation and cooling. That is the simple explanation. Now it seems like it is feeding back on itself as the warm ocean leads to more heat and moisture and thus lower air pressure. Climate models suggest that this pattern will remain in place for the duration of the season ahead- but none of them have predicted this much warming that I can recall. I hate to sound like Mr. Doom and Gloom here but I am serious, I have never seen anomalies this warm across such a large area of the Atlantic- not even during the 2005 season. With only a few weeks left until the season begins, the Herculean effort in the Gulf to stop the leaking oil becomes that much more important. I do not want to think about what could happen if a hurricane, let alone a major hurricane, were threaten those efforts. I do not know much about how oil and the ocean interact with each other except only that oil is lighter than water. I wonder if a hurricane would act as the ultimate dispersement agent and break up the slick enough to render it far less problematic? The heavy rain, aggitated sea state and strong wind could do a lot to break down the slick and spread it out over a much larger area- resulting in less concentration in a single region. I suppose though that it is a matter of picking your poison. Unless the oil just goes away, there is no good outcome. However, with the clock ticking towards the start of the hurricane season, it is something that needs to be considered and I would assume that the powers that be who are involved with the efforts are well aware of this added urgency. I will post another update here on Wednesday with a look at long range computer models as well as some thoughts about our June 1 broadcast as we open the 2010 hurricane season. 
UPDATED: 9:00 am EDT, April 26, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me HUGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2009 AND NOW FOR HEAT CONTENT I have discussed the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic since the early part of the year. We know that they are running well above normal across the entire hurricane breeding ground region from Africa to the Caribbean. What you may not realize, however, is how significantly different the amount of true energy, or heat content, there is now as compared to last year at this time. First, let's talk about TCHP or tropical cyclone heat potential. The best way to describe it is to think of it as extra fuel for tropical cyclones. If the surface of the ocean is very warm, but only to a few feet deep, then just about any aggitation of the water will result in its cooling, thus bleeding off energy that would otherwise be used to power the cyclone. On the other hand, if the warm water remained warm to a depth of 50, 100, 300 feet or more, then we are talking about vast quantities of heat energy being available even in the face of strong surface winds and an aggitated sea state. This is what scientists refer to as upper oceanic heat content and the more of it there is, the more energy is available to spawn powerful tropical cyclones. There have been a variety of methods employed over the years to quantify TCHP and I won't go in to that- but just understand that when we see areas with high TCHP, we know that there is at least the potential for significant strengthening of a given tropical cyclone. Now, let's take a look at the graphic below. It comes from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division and displays TCHP for the Atlantic Basin. Notice last year at around this same time. There was very little TCHP anywhere in the Atlantic- totally within the norm for that time of year. Next, take a look at the same map for April 23 of this year. To say that it is above normal is an understatement. The values of TCHP in the Caribbean are what we would expect in late summer- near the peak of the hurricane season. This means that there is already an enormous amount of stored energy in the Caribbean and portions of the Atlantic- much more so than we would normally see. Is it possible for it to dissipate and return to a more normal state? Yes. That would require an increase in the trade winds which would in turn cool the water just like blowing across hot coffee to cool it off. However, there is little evidence to suggest that these trends will reverse. I bring this up because it is important in how the upcoming hurricane season could be shaped. This is factual information, a piece of the puzzle that suggests the potential exists for very intense hurricanes to form in this region. Whether or not they do remains to be seen- no one knows the details of what is or is not going to happen in the months ahead. There are many other factors that go in to the development of tropical cyclones. Warm water alone is not enough. Dry, sinking air can kill off almost any chance of development should that condition be present. Strong wind shear in the upper levels will limit development too. These are all things that cannot really be forecast this far out in time. We will monitor how this map evolves over time. We are close enough to the hurricane season now that things like this begin to become more and more important. I will post another update no later than a week from now. 
UPDATED: 1:15 pm EDT, April 20, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me ASH VS DUST I have received several emails from people asking me if the Icelandic volcano will have any impact on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. The short answer is no, it will not. But this brings up an interesting topic- of ash from a volcano versus the dust that we often hear about wafting off the coast of Africa during the summer months. First, let's look at the volcano in Iceland. The country itself is located around 64 degrees north latitude- that's very far north of the tropics so any ash that is ejected in to the atmosphere is not likely to be transported in to the tropical regions of the world. If the volcano were in the tropics, like many active ones are, then perhaps the ash and other particulate matter would help to block out sunlight, thus reducing the temperature of the ocean's surface. But what if a hurricane passes over or near an erupting volcano? I am not sure about how often this has happened in recorded history but if it did, and the volcano were more of an ash-producer than lava, I imagine that an incredible amount of mud and other rain-soaked ejecta would cascade down across the region. It would be a horrific sight to behold, that is for sure. Tropical rains and volcanic ash are never a good mix but the ash itself would not be much of an impedement to the hurricane. Now let's consider the large dust outbreaks that take place over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean each year. This phenomenon is much more of a hurricane killer than any volcano, at least on a more frequent scale. It has to do with what is called the Saharan Air Layer or SAL. When a large sub-tropical area of high pressure is present over the eastern Atlantic and north Africa, strong winds blow from the east to the west across the dry, dusty Sahara Desert. This air is warm, stable and often filled with fine silicate matter, typically sand grains. This air mass moves out over the ocean and spreads westward with the trade winds. The dust is thick enough to block some incoming solar radiation and acts to cool the surface waters. However, it is the presence of the stronger trade winds that really act to knock down the sea surface temps- just like blowing across the surface of a hot cup of coffee to cool it. The net affect of the SAL is to put a lid on the development of hurricanes but the dust itself is not the true killer, it is just a visible symptom of the overall air mass over the Atlantic. The more often we see strong outbreaks of the SAL, especially during the height of the hurricane season, the less likely we are to have strong Cape Verde type hurricanes. So while the volcano in Iceland is making news headlines for the travel issues it is causing, it should have no appreciable impact on this year's Atlantic hurricane activity. We will be watching closely, however, the SAL events off of Africa. And by the way, the higher than normal sea surface temps in the tropical Atlantic this year are directly attributed to the lack of a strong subtropical high pressure area in the eastern Atlantic. Thus, the SAL outbreaks this season might not be very strong- another indicator that we may in fact be in for a very active season. UPDATED: 9:40 am EDT, April 12, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me OUR PLANS FOR THE HURRICANE SEASON As we approach the official start to the hurricane season, I thought I would talk about our plans for the months ahead. Weekly edition of HurricaneTrack News/Talk resumes Tuesday, June 1 What began as an Internet radio program in 2008 will continue as a new and improved video broadcast. Each week, starting June 1, and then each Tuesday night there after, we will produce a live video cast that will cover news in the tropics, a look at computer models, in-depth analysis of forecasts for named systems, preparedness info and much more. We will also have guests join in from time to time and, when ever possible, they will do so via video link-up. The program will be broadcast via Ustream right here on the homepage at 8pm ET beginning June 1. If you cannot watch live, no worries, it will be immediately archived for later viewing. We will strip out the audio and create an mp3 file for those who want to listen on their iPod or other media player. Note that Ustream is available to iPhone users. The weekly broadcast will be a really nice enhancement for the season ahead. It will be very similar to the daily Hurricane Outlook and Discussion that I produce for our Premium Services members but more topical in scope with featured guests coupled with a look at the tropics. I think you will be quite pleased with this new and improved version of HurricaneTrack News/Talk. I will post more about the season kick-off program as we get closer to June 1. Tropical storm and hurricane field missions live video from the HIRT Chevy Tahoe Last November during the hurricane Ida field mission, we began using Ustream to provide access to the Tahoe's dash cam on the home page. It was extremely successful and very popular. Because of the business model that Ustream adopts, we can now offer that live feed for any tropical storm or hurricane landfall event. There will be a special "mission mode" home page set up that will feature the Ustream feed from our Chevy Tahoe. You can see and hear everything that goes on during our field missions. This will be very important as we can update you with instant information as soon as we access it from our sources. We will continue to offer our Premium Services option which has more features, more on that in a moment, but this free access to the Tahoe cam will be a tremendous benefit to anyone who has an interest in our work. We will turn it on the moment we depart for any field missions that we undertake this season. I will be doing a test of the special home page next month when I travel to Ft. Lauderdale for the Florida hurricane conference. Premium Services continues to improve What began in 2005 as a means to control the costs of streaming live video has evolved in to an important aspect of our business model. This year, we are continuing to offer an exclusive chat feature that allows our members to chat with us while they view the Tahoe cam and the remote Storm Case cams. This is not going to be available on the home page or via Ustream. For one, we could have literally tens of thousands of people trying to chat all at once. And two, our paying subscribers are not going to wreck the chat by posting foul language or snide remarks (trolls). In fact, when we implemented the chat last season, several members remarked at how that feature alone was worth the subscription cost. We have developed quite a close-knit family with our long-term members who frequently use the chat window to pop in and say hello. We are also going to continue the daily Hurricane Outlook and Discussion, Monday-Friday, beginning Monday, May 31. This was a close second in terms of popular features for our subscribers last year. The video is produced live each weekday morning, around 11am ET, and is exactly what the title suggests- an outlook of potential development areas in the tropics plus a discussion on what to expect in the days ahead. Members can tune in live and chat before and after the video if they have questions, etc. It took some getting used to, having a live video broadcast to do each day, but I have to admit, it is a lot of fun, I enjoy doing it and our subscribers seem to really appreciate it. I look forward to continuing this service for the 2010 season. And of course, our subscribers will have exclusive access to our remote Storm Case cams that we place in areas where we dare not be when the hurricane makes landfall. For those who saw the success of this project during Ike, you know how far we have come since the early days waaaaaay back in 2005. We have made some improvements to the remote cams for this year including our best quality yet in the streaming video. We have three fully operational units ready for the season with two on stand-by if needed. Our members will have full access to those streams, along with the Tahoe cam, all on one page. When it is fully up and running, it is quite impressive. Last, but certainly not least, our members have access to our own 30 frame satellite and radar loops, a message board and special tracking maps and other model output maps that are available only on the Premium Services site. Membership numbers rise and fall with each season, depending upon how active it is, but I have to tell you, there is a core group of subscribers who have been a part of it since the very first time we went out on a live mission- Katrina. Premium Services is not meant to be entertainment nor to make us rich. It is a tool that if used properly, can give its subscriber base insight to not only what is going on in the tropics, but also an opportunity to become part of the mission through the interactivity that we offer. If you're interested in joining up, you could not have picked a better year. Our level of service and dedication, especially during the field missions, is second to none. For more info, click on the link in the upper right corner of the page. All of the above-mentioned improvements will be a part of our overall continued effort to provide relevant, timely and useful hurricane news and information. I will continue to update the commentary each day during the season- even when things are quiet. And when they are quiet, I will say that and not manufacture some reason to keep you coming back. We all know that there are periods of time when the tropics are simply dead and we also know, all too well, the opposite of that coin. I will be working with a great team of people, including Jesse Bass and Mike Watkins, to produce the content you see on this page. While it may be my name as the by-line, there is much more to it than that! I also encourage feedback, questions and comments on our Facebook page and/or via Twitter. We will take full advantage of social media this season and will be working on some tools of our own to throw in to the mix. We have less than 50 days now until the hurricane season gets started. We are working on being ready- please make sure you do the same. I'll have more here next week but will post misc tid-bits via Twitter and on our Facebook page. UPDATED: 9:30 am EDT, April 3, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me COLD GULF ABOUT TO GET VERY WARM I am back at the home office now after attending the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, FL. It was a great week of learning, discussions and seeing long-time friends and colleagues. Now, it is time to get ready for the upcoming hurricane season which begins in less than two months. A lot of talk has been made about the very warm water that has been prevalent in the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of the year. I have written a few posts about it and it seems that this has the potential to play quite an important role in this year's hurricane season. However, the Gulf of Mexico still remains well below normal, sea surface temp-wise, in most of that region. That is about to change. Take a look at the graphic below. It is today's SST anomaly map from NOAA/NESDIS. As you can clearly see, the Gulf is painted in mostly blues and even some purples- indicating significant departures from normal on the negative side. But notice the Loop Current nosing its way up through the central Gulf. Also notice the positive anomalies in the Caribbean, getting warmer the farther east you go. Those two features, coupled with the strong and increasing sun angle, will mean that Gulf SSTs will be back to normal, and possibly above in some places, very soon. The reason the water is so cool, relative to average, is because of the relentless onslaught of storms this winter that brought cold air and strong winds to the open Gulf. This is reversing now and with the abundant warmth in the East and South, water temps are rebounding quickly. This is all part of the overall larger picture of SSTs that are running as much as two degrees C above normal across the entire tropical Atlantic- roughly south of 20 degrees latitude. As I have mentioned in earlier posts about this, the weaker sub-tropical high, or Azores High, has lead to lighter trade winds blowing across the Atlantic, thus allowing SSTs to warm to above normal levels. In fact, this is exactly what an El Nino is in the Pacific. Perhaps there needs to be a name for the Atlantic version. Sea surface temps are only part of the overall equation when dealing with tropical cyclones. While there is mounting evidence to suggest that a very busy hurricane season is coming, it is no guarantee and no one knows where any hurricanes that do form will ultimately end up. None the less, people who are looking forward to fishing, boating and enjoying the usually warm Gulf, it's coming. 
UPDATED: 9:30 pm EDT, March 31, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me THOUGHTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE I am in Orlando attending the National Hurricane Conference and thought that I would post a few observations and key points from today's opening general session. The afternoon session began a little after 1pm with an intro from former NHC director Max Mayfield. He then introduced the current director, Bill Read. He did a quick overview of the paltry 2009 hurricane season an emphasized that even though the coastal areas of the Alantic Basin were relatively lucky last year, that it could all change this coming season. His biggest concern was for Haiti and for obvious reasons. It would not take even a strong hurricane to do great damage in the earthquake-torn nation. In fact, just a big rain making tropical storm or depression could inflict more misery on the region. Read concluded his presentation with an outline of the future of the U.S. hurricane program- noting that it won't be too many years before we will see seven day track forecasts- and that we still have a long way to go with intensity prediction. He also made mention of the changes to the watch/warning info which has been posted on the NHC's site for several months now. Next up was FEMA director Craige Fugate. Floridians will remember him as the director of emergency management in the Sunshine State- up until he took the job in Washington. His main theme was team work. Sounds like a simple concept but its meaning goes far deeper. He cited problems during the 2005 hurricane season that could easily be rectified with some coordination and team work. I was also pleased to hear him address the use of social media for hurricane emergencies. This is a huge topic in and of itself, one that I have covered to some extent on this site a few times already. There is great potential for the spreading of information and sharing of ideas through social media between the public and the government. Mr. Fugate also discussed Haiti and how there were people he met who were charging cell phone batteries off of a regular 12V car battery, an inverter and power strips (this is how WE do it in the Tahoe and on our field missions- been doing that for almost six years). He saw the innovation using simple, off-the-shelf products to solve a problem. It is his concern too that Haiti will need to be watched closely this hurricane season- something I believe we will hear a lot about once we get there in a little over two months. Next up was Lt. General Robert L. Van Antwerp, Chief of Engineers, USACE. His main focus was on the role of the Corps in helping to manage disasters, floods and of course, the levee issues in New Orleans. He had a lot of positive things to say, several warm stories to tell and a nice sense of humor- pretty refreshing to see. He addressed how conditions can change year to year in our ports and navigable rivers with silt, sediment and seasonal flood patterns. His presentation was fairly short and to the point. The crowd took a break for about 45 minutes and returned to hear David Halstead, Interim Director, Florida Division of Emergency Management speak about Florida via Haiti. Most of his content was about Haiti and the repatriation of its populous that came to the U.S. in the days and weeks after the quake. Google what that term means- repatriation. Interesting stuff that went on in Florida that I was not aware of. His point seemed to be that we can learn a lot from the Haiti experience and use lessons learned to better equip the U.S. for the next major disaster. He seemed to really know the ropes and has had many years of experience- which is a huge plus in this business. We moved on to Joe Becker, Senior Vice President of Disaster Services, American Red Cross and his quiet, low-key presentation cocerning the role of the Red Cross in this country. He echoed what a lot of us are facing- that money is tight, there is less of it to go around but that we still need to do our part to be ready and not leave anyone out who needs help. I am not sure that he was totally in support of the use of social media- it seemed that he gave pause to the fact that it could open government and other agencies up to a flood of people looking for information in a world where it is expected to be instant and available. Who will man that effort? Good point. Someone has to be able to answer to so and so county's Facebook "fan" page with 4000 tax payers wanting to know when debris will be picked up or the power turned back on. This is an issue that if it back-fires, a lot of people will be angry and use the same social media to voice such frustations. That is what I took from a portion of his talk. One of my favorite presentations of the afternoon was from Forrest Masters, University of Florida. He basically outlined how what the public knows as "storm chasers" or "hurricane chasers" need to work together to coordinate and share their data. There are mutliple efforts from universities and private firms alike which are all aiming to improve the science of understanding hurricanes. We use some meteorological tools with our sole 5-meter wind tower. But over the years, more and more of our data is visual in the form of fixed-camera video from our remote Storm Case cams. Dr. Masters believes that a "quantum leap" in hurricane science can be made with (obviously) more funding and more remote sensing devices such as wind towers, mobile Doppler trucks and even underwater surge measuring devices dropped by helicopters in the path of a hurricane. It was a fascinating look in to the deep grit of the scientific community and their effort to study hurricanes and other severe weather. I promptly introduced myself to him and offered to send our video (time lapse) for him to see how we do what we do while on our hurricane field missions. There are some bright minds out there, let me tell you! I hope the funding can allow these people to continue. Finally, we heard from Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his mentor Dr. Bill Gray. After an incredible intro from Dr. Gray, Dr. Klotzbach spoke about the upcoming hurricane season and his thoughts on why it is likely to be "well above average". I recorded this portion of his talk and have posted a link to it below. Let me say this- there is strong evidence to suggest that we will see a very active hurricane season ahead. Of course, and he made this very clear, no one knows where the future storms and hurricanes will strike- if at all. We will just have to wait and see how it all plays out. The session ended with an energetic presentation from Dr. Gray. He went over in fairly solid detail the whole idea behind why we are in an active period of hurricane activity and how it is NOT at all related to increased levels of C02 in the atmosphere. His evidence to the contrary was compelling and he made it a point to mention that we need to fear the hurricanes- not man-made weather catastrophes. There are far more pressing and urgent issues in the world today, he proclaimed. I would tend to agree. We are likely to see this current period of increased hurricane activity for another decade- perhaps two. People may have their opinions about his work, style and motives, but his science appears to be firmly planted in real evidence, not fear-based sensationalism. He just wants people to understand that when coastal populations increase like they have since the 70s, and then you bring in a more active period for (especially) major hurricanes, the recipe for unprecedented damage and loss of life is set. Hard to aruge that. UPDATED: 11:00 am EDT, March 15, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me CFS MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE DEMISE OF EL NINO- PLUS, OUR MEET AND GREET PLANNED FOR APRIL 1 There are several computer models that predict the ocean's temperature patterns over the coming weeks and months. One such model is the Climate Forecast System or CFS. I have included the latest graphic from its output below. You can plainly see that the trend is downward in terms of temperatures of the tropical Pacific- specifically the central Pacific (aka Nino 3.4 region). Now, this is an ensemble spread or several models shown on the plot. Some are above zero or neutral anomaly, some are below. It looks like those that favor a slightly cooler than average anomaly win out which should mean that we will see conditions generally in the neutral range (plus or minus a half degree Celsius). This would in turn be an enhancing factor for the development of Atlantic hurricanes. However, there are many other aspects of the equation that need to be taken in to consideration, but this one piece of the hurricane short-term climate puzzle looks fairly clear as of now: we will be leaving the El Nino behind over the next few months. In other news- I have set up our meet and greet for April 1 in Casselberry, FL (near Orlando) at the Buffalo Wild Wings. It will be from 7pm until 10pm or when ever. Mike Watkins will join me along with Tim Millar from the Cyclone Research Group. The idea is to get together with you, the people who have supported our work over the past eleven years. We can talk hurricanes, share stories, show you some of our technology up close and just have a nice evening getting to know each other. We simply would not have much reason to be here without YOU, so if you live anywhere near Orlando, bring the whole family out on Thursday, April 1. Here is the direct link to the event on our Facebook page. If you have any questions, feel free to email me. 
Latest CFS forecast for Nino 3.4 region showing steady forecast decline of SST anomaliesUPDATED: 9:00 am EST, March 8, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me NATIONAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE COMING UP- WE'LL BE THERE, PLANNING A MEET AND GREET The 2010 National Hurricane Conference is being held in Orlando, FL this year. It begins on March 29 and will conclude on April 2. I am going to head down there for the general sessions beginning Wednesday, March 31 and will stay through the closing session on Friday. I will post video clips and text updates here and on our Twitter feed. On Thursday evening, April 1, I am planning a meet and greet for anyone in the Orlando area who would like to stop by and say hello. Exact time and location are being worked out now. Mike Watkins will be joining me from south Florida for this and we hope to use the opportunity to get to know the people who have supported and followed our work over the years. I will post an update here once I firm up a location and pin down a time (probably 7p to 9p). I'll also have the info scheduled as an event on our Facebook page. Mike and I look forward to putting faces to familiar names as well as catching up with long-time friends in the area. As for the tropics, the Atlantic continues to display an interesting signal of substantial warming in the deep tropics. From Africa all the way in to the Caribbean Sea, sea surface temps are running at least 1 degree C above normal. Several long range computer models foreacst this pattern to remain in place as the Pacific steadily cools to a neutral state. I am sure this will be discussed at the conference, especially at the closing session when Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his mentor, Dr. Bill Gray, present their updated thoughts for the hurricane season. Whether or not you feel that such forecasts are relevant, one thing is certain, there are strong global indicators that lend credibility to the notion that this hurricane season will be far different than last. None the less, there could 50 hurricanes but if none hit land, so what? We'll just have to wait and see how it all pans out. UPDATED: 9:30 am EST, March 1, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me CHILEAN EARTHQUAKE AND RESULTING TSUNAMI EXCELLENT LITMUS TEST FOR SOCIAL MEDIA USE IN NATURAL DISASTERS I received a text message on my Sprint phone in the wee hours of Saturday morning notifying me that a powerful earthquake had struck off the coast of South America. Roughly 15 hours later, the world watched in morbid fascination for the possibility of death and destruction rolling in from the seas. Twitter, Ustream and Facebook were all buzzing with activity of the disaster- much of the content unfiltered and in real-time. I am not sure that I can recall a time when the Internet played such an integral role during a natural disaster. Sure, the Haiti earthquake sent proverbial shockwaves across the blogosphere, but Saturday, it was different. We were waiting on potential disaster to strike as millions of people tuned in to see what would happen in Hawaii. This really got me thinking about the role that social media will play during a major hurricane event for the United States. We have been using Twitter for a little over a year now and I have made it a point to try to stick to relevant content related to our work here at HurricaneTrack.com. We also have a Facebook page which has been in use since mid-summer last year. The two offer a great way for us to convey chunks of info, teases on upcoming events and to connect with each other on a more personal level. With our use of Ustream last November during hurricane Ida (and its Nor'easter ghost), we were able to broadcast our live video feed from the Tahoe to anyone who visited the homepage. This too has resulted in numerous friendships being established and even our installation of a weather station out on the Outer Banks- none of which would have been possible had these people not been connected with our work. I can now easily see how social media will play a major role not only in our work, but in the dissemination of news (good or bad) when the next major hurricane threatens our shores. But, as the famous line from Spider Man stated, "With great power comes great responsibility". We must tread carefully as there is much room for error, rumor and outright sabotage in this unbridled new world of social media- it can quickly turn to social mayhem. Trusting valued sources such as your local news station, emergency management office, county government is going to be the best way to filter through the inevitable garbage that will be put out there- some of it on purpose. Imagine the power of Twitter in spreading false information. One person or ogranization could send out wrong data, evacuation info or other misleading rumors and in 140 characters, an avalanche has been started that would propagate across the Internet in a matter of seconds. This could end up costing people precious time- and worse, their lives. Hopefully this is a worst-case scenario but I saw it on Saturday, several bits of flat-out wrong info being sent out over Twitter about what the buoys meant on a graphic displayed at the Tsunami Warning Center's site. In times of disaster, confusion is a slippery slope towards chaos. However, there is a far more powerful good side to this new method of instant info. For one, we plan to use it to put out new data, model info, breaking news updates, our plans for covering a storm or hurricane, etc. etc. Our Facebook page will allow us to interact with each other in ways that we never have before. Our use of Ustream will mean we can finally broadcast the Tahoe cam to potentially hundreds of thousands of people at once- giving them a look inside how we do what we do as well as real-time data and info from right where the hurricane is going to strike. We tested this during Ida and it was an amazing success- we will build upon that this season. The other side to this also includes the ability of friends and family to stay in touch and to let each other know that they are safe- or are in need of assistance. With text messaging typically working far better than voice lines after a hurricane, what better way to communicate than through a short update via Twitter or Facebook? I see this as an incredible benefit to those who are impacted (look at how the social media phenomenon helped after the Haiti earthquake) as well as to those who are working to get critical information in and out of a region. Millions watched as the sea ebbed and flowed in Hilo Bay on Saturday. That was an event with several hours of warning. I can only imagine what the social media scene will be like when we have days of advance notice as the next historic hurricane closes in. We will do our best to stay on the cutting edge of this technology and to put it to the best use possible. I would love to hear some feedback as to what you would like to see through our Twitter feed and Facebook page. If you're not connected to us through these sites yet, just click the appropriate icon in the right hand column. Of course, plain, old fashioned e-mail works just fine as well :-) UPDATED: 5:45 pm EST, February 24, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM TAKING AIM ON NORTHEAST- NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES POSTED It's not a hurricane, not be any stretch, but the effects will be similar with coastal flooding, high winds, power outages and heavy rains. In the cold regions of the storm, snow will pile up, in some places it will be measured in feet- again. This is all part of the overall nasty winter that much of the U.S. has had to deal with. I produced a video webcast earlier today that attempts to explain what is going on, at least from what I know about these types of big time winter storms. Check it out via the link below. The storm is taking shape now off the Southeast coast and will really ramp up tomorrow as it retrogrades back to the northwest from the Atlantic. It is a rare weather event and one that has the potential for disrupting millions of lives. Be aware, alert and if you live in the affected area, be careful. UPDATED: 9:30 am EST, February 23, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me MAJOR STORM TO BLAST THE NORTHEAST People living in the Northeast need to pay attention. A major, big time, epic winter storm is looking more and more likely. The set up is complex but is not too unlike a rogue Atlantic storm coming in off the ocean during hurricane season- except this one will produce FEET of snow. The information that I am looking at, including computer models, other blogs, etc., tells me that this is a potentially dangerous situation for a great deal of the major Northeast cities. It is impossible to know exactly which areas would be the hardest hit but I urge our friends in the region to visit their local NWS page at weather.gov by inputting your ZIP Code and then reading the forecast discussion and other local text products. I am also contemplating heading up to the region myself for live streaming coverage, much like we would do if a hurricane was threatening the region. I have until tomorrow morning to decide for sure. Bottom line, I wanted to make sure our readers were aware of this potentially life-threatening situation. Hopefully the models are dead wrong and it will be a bust- if it is not, and the models are right, then this will be THE single worst event of the winter season. We shall see what we shall see. I'll post more on it here tonight and via Twitter posts. UPDATED: 10:30 am EST, February 15, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me SEA SURFACE TEMPS WORTH WATCHING Even though it is only mid-February, there are some interesting things going on with sea surface temperatures that are worth mentioning. Using the graphic below as a guide, you will notice first that the tropical Atlantic, areas south of 20 degrees latitude, is quite a bit above normal. This warm anomaly stretches from the coast of Africa westward in to the Caribbean Sea. From what I understand, this is most likely due to the strong negative Arctic Oscillation that has been dominate over the course of the winter- which tends to lower the trade winds across the eastern Atlantic and thus sea surface temps warm since they are not being cooled by strong easterly trade winds. This current pattern can easily change and those warm anomalies can disappear in a matter of days so it is not much concern as of yet. We'll see what things look like in about 90 days or so when the hurricane season is almost upon us. The other area of interest is the dwindling El Nino in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temps have cooled steadily in the region from South America westward to about 140 degrees of longitude. In fact, the east Pacific is running right at normal to perhaps just a tad below normal. The cooling trend is expected to continue as we approach the summer months and we should be out of the El Nino well before the peak of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This is right in line with what would be expected with a typical El Nino event- they usually do not last for more than a year. It will be interesting to watch as sea surface temps evolve in both basins over the coming months. The fact that there are tools readily available to allow anyone to monitor such things is wonderful. A lot can happen between now and the hurricane season to change what we are seeing today, but I thought it was worth talking about. I will keep a close eye on how this pans out and will post another update concerning sea temps in about a month. 
UPDATED: 9:45 am EST, February 3, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me EL NINO MAY BE DYING OUT BUT ITS IMPACT FAR FROM OVER There are continued indications that the fairly strong El Nino that developed last year is in fact on its way out. Computer models and recent real-time data suggests that sea surface temps in the tropical Pacific will continue to decline steadily, reaching neutral conditions, for the most part, by summer. This has huge implications for the upcoming hurricane season- more on that in a few weeks. For now, however, the lingering effects of the El Nino will continue to be felt. The main issue has been a strong southern storm track this winter with numerous systems coming out of the western Gulf and across the Deep South, Southeast and up the East Coast. Many river basins are at or nearing flood stage while heavy snows, ice storms and even severe weather has been a problem for areas from Texas to New England. Unfortunately, there is more to come. The next storm system is taking shape now over the western Gulf of Mexico. By the weekend, it will be fully cranked up off the NC Outer Banks- bringing wind, rain, snow, beach erosion and cold conditions for a large portion of the Mid-Atlantic region. While not as bad as the Ghost of Ida, at least it does not appear that way as of now, it will be another shot to the already torn up beaches of North Carolina, Virginia, Delaware and points north. As I often suggest here, vist weather.gov where you can enter your ZIP Code and then access detailed forecast information for your city. Read the Forecast Discussions as often as you can, they have excellent info, some of it fairly technical, but solid to be sure. The more you understand, the better you can prepare- no matter what kind of weather is headed your way. Another interesting note is the SOI or Southern Oscillation Index. I mentioned this in an earlier piece I wrote about the El Nino. The SOI is currently strongly negative, a sign of intense upward motion or energy parked over the western tropical Pacific. This energy, part of the MJO pulse that we watch closely during the hurricane season, will migrate eastward over the next week to ten days, bringing with it more challenging weather issues. It is probably the last gasp of the driving forces behind the decaying El Nino. February may well be remembered as one of the stormiest months we have seen in a long, long time. For coastal residents, it means more loss of protective dunes and increased vulnerability to any potential hurricane threats this coming summer. I'll post more here as needed and encourage you to follow along on Twitter as well- where I post occassional tid bits, links to graphics, satellite shots, etc. on a daily basis. UPDATED: 1:00 pm EST, February 1, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me MAJOR COASTAL STORM TO DEVELOP AND LASH FRAGILE BEACHES ONCE AGAIN This has been a stormy winter, no doubt about it. It seems to have started back in early November when hurricane Ida transformed in to a monstrous Nor'easter type storm, leaving a trail of battered beaches in its wake. Since then, the East and Southeast has endured numerous winter storms, severe weather and flooding conditions as one system after another comes charging in across the country. There appears to be no end in sight. The latest event will take shape over the western Gulf of Mexico, the genesis point for many of this season's storms. By the weekend, it looks like it will spread heavy rain, winter precip and strong winds from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states. Once again, the NC Outer Banks and SE Virginia could receive the brunt of the energy from the ocean. In fact, the latest computer models indicate a possible prolonged event as the storm sits and spins just off the North Carolina coast. This would churn up the Atlantic and send strong northeast winds in to the coast, piling up the water similar to what Ghost of Ida did. Farther inland, the problem could be ice and snow as cold, dense air wedges its way down the east side of the mountains. With many places digging out from the recent winter storm, this next looming storm has the potential of causing quite a range of problems. While not tropical in nature, it concerns me to see our beaches eroded so severely during the winter months. We are less than 120 days out from the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, we need all the beach we can get. I'll post more here concerning the developing storm throughout the week with various bits of info on our Twitter feed. UPDATED: 10:15 am EST, January 18, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me GET READY TO SAY GOODBYE TO EL NINO As you probably know, a fairly strong El Nino has been in in place over the tropical Pacific over the past few months. It began last summer and helped to put a lid on the Atlantic hurricane season. Since that time, it has strengthened to the strongest El Nino event in more than 10 years. Now, we are seeing signs of its demise. A large driving force behind the development and sustaining of an El Nino is a weakening or reversal of the trade winds across the tropical Pacific. When those winds, which should normally blow from east to west, slow down or even reverse course, the Pacific warms along and near the Equator- thus giving birth to an El Nino. One way to know whether or not the trades are acting normally is to measure the pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. When the air pressure is lower in Darwin than it is in Tahiti, the natural flow of air is a normal east to west regime (high pressure moves to low pressure). When that pressure pattern is flipped, especially if it is significantly so, then the mass flow of air across the Pacific tends to be more westerly- thus aiding in warming the Pacific. Make sense so far? This is called the SOI or Southern Oscillation Index. When it is positive, as long as it is not strongly positive, a normal east-west trade wind pattern is in place. However, when the SOI is negative, especially for a long duration, the trades slow or even reverse, allowing warm water to build in the tropical Pacific. Ever since about early summer of last year, the SOI has been consistently negative with only a few short periods of time when it poked above zero. This led to the current El Nino we have now. So what about the future? Well, indications are that this El Nino has reached its peak, probably a few weeks ago. The SOI is now working its way up towards zero from being strongly negative. The result has been an increase in the normal trade wind pattern across much of the Pacific. Also, long term computer models suggest that the process will continue to evolve towards a more neutral state as we get closer to the summer months. Just looking at current sea surface temps across the Pacific, as shown below, one can see an obvious lessening of the warm anomalies working from east to west. It will take some time, these things don't just change over night, but it appears likely that this El Nino event is on its way out. This means that come summer, conditions might not be as hostile in the Atlantic, due to a more normal upper air pattern returning as opposed to the strong upper level winds that El Ninos typically bring across the tropical Atlantic. In the meantime, the warm water in the Pacific will contribute to a series of strong Pacific storms that will rake the West Coast of the U.S. with heavy rains, deep mountain snows and severe weather farther east. The presence of an El Nino throws a wrench in to the global weather patterns and we get wild swings in temperatures and in storm systems. For the next week or so, California will be especially hit hard with news making weather affecting the Golden State. We can expect to see a fairly active spring pattern too with more severe weather than we saw last year a strong possibility. The really nice aspect to this is that there are tools that we can look at each week to monitor the progress of El Nino. I will continue to post information here from time to time about conditions in the tropical Pacific, and soon, the Atlantic. All of these large puzzle pieces, as I like to call them, will begin to fit together and give us a clearer picture of what to look for this coming Atlantic hurricane season. For now, winter is still in full swing with plenty of non-tropical weather to deal with. I'll have more here in early February with occasional tid-bits and updates via Twitter. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies from late October through last week. 
UPDATED: 9:30 am EST, January 12, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me BIG WEATHER MAKER TO TAKE SHAPE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND As I mentioned in yesterday's post, a non-tropical yet potent weather system is going to develop in the NW Gulf of Mexico, promising to bring rain, strong winds and possibly coastal flooding to a good deal of the Gulf Coast. Likely a product of the current El Nino event, this southern storm will herald a nice warm up for areas hit hard by the recent cold snap. The bad side to this is the possibility of severe weather as the storm system works east and then northeast. Florida and points northward could see heavy rains with the storm, adding to already full river basins. It will be interesting to see how potent the system becomes as some of the models do indicate quite a notable event coming out of it. I will keep an eye on its evolution and probable track over the coming days. For those who live anywhere from the upper Texas coast to Florida, keep an eye on this developing weather system- El Nino induced Gulf storms have a history of being trouble at this time of year. I'll have more here next week and will also discuss the El Nino and what the long range models are "saying" about its future. UPDATED: 9:45 am EST, January 11, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me NOT TROPICAL BUT POTENT STORM TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF Fro those of you who are tired of the cold, fear not, change is coming. However, we will be trading the cold for a stormy pattern these next few days, beginning with the Gulf of Mexico. From the looks of the global computer models, a strong storm system is likely to develop in the NW Gulf of Mexico later this week and track eastward. A period of heavy rain, strong winds and severe weather is likely as we near the weekend. The models show the storm tracking from Texas to the Carolinas with a return to much warmer air. The threat of tidal flooding in some areas will be a concern, especially where the wind blows on shore, piling up the water. I'll post more about this system throughout the week but wanted folks to be aware of it now. El Nino storms can often be quite strong, especially the ones that come out of the relatively warm waters of the Gulf. I'll post more here tomorrow morning and also on Twitter as more info becomes available. UPDATED: 12:00 am EST, January 1, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me WELCOME TO 2010! HERE ARE OUR PLANS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD Happy New Year! Welcome to a new decade, hard to believe it huh? Time sure seems to fly lately, it does for me anyway. With the start of a new year, I thought I would outline some things that we have planned as we approach and enter the 2010 hurricane season. First up, a big thanks goes out to our corporate partners for their continued vision and support of our efforts in the year ahead. We have worked with Sprint since the summer of 2001 and have accomplished so much with their outstanding network. We positively could not do what we do in the field without Sprint- it was like they tailor-made the network just for us! We look forward to pushing the envelope as we utilize their new 4G technology. Sprint powers all of our remotely operated field projects and our live streaming video during hurricane missions. It is quite an honor to continue to have their generous support year after year. Last year, we welcomed All Road Sat, a satellite sales and rental outfit based in San Diego, to the site as a partner. Fortunately for coastal residents, we did not have to put their state of the art satellite based equipment to use in 2009 but are ready should the need arise this hurricane season. If we ever lose the terrestrial network, All Road Sat has provided us with mobile broadband and communications so that we can always have a link to the outside world- no matter how severe the situation at hand is. They are also supporting our attendance at the 2010 Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference in late May, something that we feel is very important in keeping in touch with the very people that we may encounter at some point this coming season. Again, we are so proud to have the support of these companies and hope to utilize their products in a manner that will foster education, information, research and so much more. So what are we going to do differently in 2010? First of all, we learned about the power of social media during hurricane Ida in November. Our one and only field mission in 2009 to the Alabama Gulf Coast and then to the NC Outer Banks showed us the true power of social media and networking. Through the use of Ustream.tv, Facebook and Twitter, we had thousands of people engaged for hours at a time with us as we traveled to our locations as Ida approached land fall. The interactivity was unprecedented and has allowed us to literally connect with so many new people who have either been long time fans of our work or were just introduced to us through their friends on message boards, Facebook or Twitter. We look to expand on that success and will continue to utilize the social media scene to post additional info, photos, videos, events, etc. and encourage others to get involved and share their own content as well. You can follow us via the links over on the right hand colmumn. One change for 2010 is that we have done away with our web cam, per se. It is no longer a static image being updated every so often. Instead, we will have a live video stream playing on the homepage, and our web cam page, 24 hours a day. The stream may be from my home office, a cam that we have on the NC Outer Banks or even the live cam from the HIRT Chevy Tahoe. It's just something different that we can now offer to any one who visits the site. You can see the live video stream on the right hand column or visit the web cam page linked under it. Another new feature which I think will add tremendous value to the site for 2010 is the addition of a Friday LIVE video outlook and discussion. Similar to the Hurricane Outlook video that I produce daily for our Premium Services members, the Friday outlook and discussion will be broadcast live from my office (time to be determined) and will be used to go over potential development areas in the Atlantic and East Pacific. I will also detail ocean temps, El Nino conditions, computer model forecasts and more as part of the in-depth analysis of the current and forecast conditions based on information as recently as that Friday morning. The video will stream via Ustream LIVE on the homepage and will last anywhere from 5 minutes to as long as 20 minutes- what ever it takes to detail the latest goings on in the tropics. I will post the video on Ustream.tv immediately upon its completion in case you cannot watch live. For our Premium Services members, you will continue to have access to the daily outlook video that I began this past year. I think this new offering will be very popular, especially when there is the threat of a hurricane impacting land. Stay tuned for more info on this as we get closer to June. Last but in no way least we will continue to offer the next level of hurricane information and unique interactivity for our Premium Services members. There is no way to thoroughly describe what it is exactly that makes being a member so special. For those who have joined and have taken advantage of the tools that we offer, they will tell you, there is nothing else like it on the Internet. We began the subscription service in 2005 as a video feed only product to offer our live streaming video. Now, it has expanded to include a live chat feature where by our members can interact with us and each other during our field missions. We also have the daily Hurricane Outlook and Discussion and a set of radar and satellite animations that offer 30 frames instead of the typical 12, 15 or 24. A message board and exclusive access to our remote video camera systems rounds out the menu for our members. We are especially grateful for the dedicated people who have been subscribers coming up on five years now. We added several dozen new members just during Ida, mostly due to the aforementioned social media success. I see this as the future of our program, where by we are supported almost entirely by our members, much like public radio, with additional support from corporate partners. If you're looking for something that will immerse you in to our work, like you're part of it, then you might want to sign up. It's not for everyone- some folks want to see all action, destruction, mayhem and excitement. That's not why we offer it. Our Premium Services offers something that no other site can and again, no amount of words can effectively relate what I mean. If you're truly interested, check out our Facebook fan page and just ask those who are members there what they get out of it. We offer an annual subscription for less than the cost of a movie, popcorn, candy and a drink. In return, you get to be part of our world and can interact with other people from all over the planet who all have a deep interest in learning more about hurricanes and their effects on the people that they impact. To learn more, click on the "click here to join" link in the upper right hand corner. We hope that 2010 brings you much prosperity and good health. Mike Watkins, Jesse Bass and myself, along with our good friends and colleagues who help to keep things running, look forward to providing you with the best hurricane news, information and live reporting that we can. There is no way to know for sure what the coming hurricane season will be like but it does not matter, we know that all it takes is the right hurricane in the wrong location and bad things can happen- even if it's to just one person or one family. Learn about the enemy. Ask questions, email us, follow our updates on Twitter and get involved on Facebook. Reliable information is critical and we'll do all we can to provide just that. Thanks for being with us whether it's been since 1999 or just now. Great to have you along, June 1 is not as far off as it seems. We'll be ready, will you? |
