A Wide Swath of Heavy Rain Coming for the Gulf Coast
It looks like a wet weekend is in store for a good deal of the northwest Gulf Coast due to a low pressure area that is forecast to form. The low drops southeast out of Texas today and tomorrow and begins to tap the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This will supply quite a bit of deep tropical moisture and could lead to some very heavy rains across portions of the I-10 corridor later in the weekend.
The low seems to be part of energy coming out of the east Pacific associated with a developing tropical storm just about on the coast of Pacific Mexico now. What the models are indicating is that some of this energy gets pulled in to a developing trough of low pressure that digs in over Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi this weekend. The added heat energy from the Pacific system gets a boost of upper level energy from the trough and a surface low develops in response over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. It is quite complex but the end result should be a non-tropical low pressure area gets going and brings wind, coastal flooding issues and very heavy rains to a good deal of the area from Texas to Alabama between late Saturday through Monday.
While I fully expect to see the NHC mention this system once it gets organized, the processes involved with its development lead me to think that it has almost no chance of becoming purely tropical in nature. However, there is an opportunity here for the formation of a sub-tropical storm which has winds spread out over a larger area and temperature profile that is different from a purely tropical system where the winds are concentrated nearer the center that itself is warmer than the surrounding environment. The bottom line is that a period of rather squally weather is coming and folks need to be aware.
As it happens to be, I am about to head over to the Gulf Coast as I make my way to Houston for continuing interview work for a documentary that I am producing with my colleagues Mike Watkins and Jesse Bass. So I will be right in the thick of what ever develops and can post updates here, stream live via our Ustream channel and send video blogs to our iPhone app. It will be an interesting weekend to say the least.
Meanwhile, the system in the east Pacific, invest area 94-E, is producing heavy rains and winds to near tropical storm intensity in the area near the southern Baja peninsula. Fortunately, the weak low pressure center will be onshore later today but the threat of continued torrential rains across portions of Mexico will persist for the remainder of today and early tomorrow. All of this energy will track across Mexico and become the source of the aforementioned Gulf low.
ECMWF MJO Signal Looking a Little More Favorable in October
Beyond this weekend, it looks as though a weak MJO pulse could move in to the Atlantic Basin just in time for the second climatological peak of the hurricane season that occurs near the middle of the month. While it is too far out in time to begin looking for signs of development, I suspect that we will see something take shape in the western Caribbean within the next two to three weeks. This fits the time of year we are in and the added influence of the wet phase of the MJO could lead to one more development potential during October. Obviously, we will just wait and see how this plays out as there is nothing indicated in the long range models just yet.
As I mentioned, I am on the road right now, currently in Florida, where I have interviewed quite a few people for the documentary. I’ve been working with Mike Watkins to develop the story and shape the ideas in to something that we think will give you a whole new perspective on hurricanes and their impacts on our nation and our culture. I’ll be producing video blogs for our private clients and for our app later this morning and then I’ll hit the road by this afternoon and begin heading over to the Gulf Coast for more interviews. I’ll keep the site updated with another post coming by early this evening.