There is quite a lot going on this morning with two very active systems in the Atlantic Basin. One is 97L near the Bahamas and the other, 98L nearing the Lesser Antilles.
First up- 97L. The small low pressure system has probably been a tropical depression for a few hours but it is not bothering any land areas so it does not really matter all that much. The NHC may upgrade it later this morning but the window of opportunity for it to intensify further is rapidly closing. However, the system has a vigorous and well defined low pressure area and is producing persistent convection and therefore has some time left to strengthen a little more. The big inhibitor will be very strong upper level winds that are approaching from the west. These winds will quickly disrupt the process of upward motion and shear out the low quite efficiently.
Next we have 98L which continues to get better organized as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. The main impact right now will be an increase in tropical downpours accompanied by periods of gusty winds. These conditions will spread across a good deal of the Lesser Antilles later today and through the upcoming weekend.
There is a good chance that 98L will become a tropical storm at some point over the next 72 hours or so and this could make for a rather stormy period for the islands. I do not see any solid indication that 98L will become a hurricane while passing through the region but its fairly slow movement means a prolonged period of heavy rains.
The steering pattern is such that we should see the system turn northwest and eventually north as it feels the effects of a strong trough in the western Atlantic. This is very common for this time of year and should easily turn what ever develops away from the Bahamas and Florida by early next week.
The remainder of the Atlantic and Caribbean are quiet with no additional areas of interest noted this morning.
In the east Pacific, there is a disturbance well to the south of Mexico that has potential for development as it moves westward and away from land.
I’ll have more on the two Atlantic features this afternoon with a complete video blog analysis posted to our iPhone app early this afternoon.