TS Ernesto is close to making its final landfall along the Mexican coast this morning in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche. Top winds were near 70mph as of the latest NHC advisory at 5am ET. There is still a window of opportunity for Ernesto to become a hurricane again but time is running out – luckily. Once Ernesto is on shore, it will obviously weaken and do so quickly over the increasingly rugged terrain of Mexico. However, the threat of excessive rain fall will exist for a couple of days until the circulation completely dissipates.
Elsewhere, hurricane Gilma in the east Pacific poses no threat to land and never will. There is also invest area 93-E (E for east Pacific) which bears watching over the next few days but should not become a problem for land areas either, at least not in the near term.
The Atlantic Basin, aside from Ernesto, is not looking too bad. Even though 92L is out in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, I see little reason to believe that it will amount to much over the coming days. The pattern is actually quite negative in the upper levels for development right now. A series of large and persistent upper level low pressure areas is creating a lot of strong winds aloft which in turn is preventing much from happening in the deep tropics. None of the global models, which handled Ernesto very well, show 92L developing in to anything to worry about. It may still bring a period of squally weather to the Lesser Antilles this weekend but that should be about it.
A large tropical wave is about to emerge from Africa and it could develop once it reaches the warm Atlantic but here too, the global models simply do not show much happening. Perhaps the warming of the Pacific is finally taking its toll on the Atlantic in terms of strong upper level winds. Perhaps it is something else. I don’t know for sure but the signs are not there right now for anything serious to brew up over the next few days. We know how quickly this can change so we’ll certainly want to keep tabs on conditions as we move deeper in to August.
I’ll have another blog post later this morning concerning the first update we’re about to push to the HurricaneTrack app.