We now have invest area 91L which is situated in the Atlantic Ocean, not far off the coast of Cuba and well to the southeast of Miami. The NHC currently indicates a high chance of further development and it’s likely that we will see the system become a tropical depression and then a tropical storm before making landfall along the central Gulf Coast around mid-week.
The main impacts will be squally weather and gusty winds for portions of Cuba, the central and northwest Bahamas and eventually south Florida, including the Keys.
Water temps are plenty warm and there is abundant moisture available for the system to tap in to. The main inhibiting factor right now is shear – strong upper level winds keeping the tropical wave from organizing quickly. There are indications that this shearing pattern will relax enough for it to become a tropical storm at some point. Precisely how strong it can get remains to be seen. I do worry about these smaller systems since they don’t have to bundle as much energy and can ramp up quickly.
As for the Gulf Coast, the main impact will be periods of very heavy rain and possible severe weather and the circulation closes in Tuesday and Wednesday. Along the immediate coast, the usual storm surge prone areas could see several feet of inundation, something we will have to wait and see about as time progresses.
If you have travel plans across I-10 from Alabama through Louisiana this coming week, pay close attention to the forecasts and be prepared for delays. The potential exists for 5-10 inches of rain or more in some locations and this will make travel difficult at times.
I will be heading down to the region beginning tomorrow for local coverage and data collection. I’ll take several of my live cams plus our two weather stations. If anything, this will be an opportunity to continue to test the equipment and if 91L becomes stronger than anticipated, I will be well positioned to know exactly how strong should that happen.
You may follow along via our iPhone app, Hurricane Impact, just search for those exact words on the App Store. We had an Android version but it kept having issues and the cost to keep it going was too much.
I will also embed the live vehicle YouTube feed on this page, in our app and on Patreon for anyone to follow as well.
As for TS Florence, it’s not bothering any land areas for the time being but it’s worth tracking closely over the coming days as models are beginning to suggest it may not curve out to sea as originally thought. We have plenty of time to monitor the situation so no need to worry about Florence just yet.
I’ll post an updated blog later tonight.
M. Sudduth 12:20 PM ET Sept 2