The NHC has made mention of the possibility of development off the Southeast coast later this weekend for a few days now. A low pressure area, non-tropical in origin, moved across the landmass of the Southeast and has now emerged over the very warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
It is a small area of weak low pressure now with disorganized convection, as seen in recent satellite imagery. However, the potential is there for this to become a tropical depression and eventually a tropical storm. If it becomes a storm, the name will be Arthur.
The steering pattern is interesting as it looks like, for now, the low will move southward as high pressure in the middle layer of the atmosphere keeps the system blocked from moving north or northeast. There is a chance that the low will even turn to the southwest and may make it to the Georgia or Florida coast early next week.
Water temps are very warm across the western Atlantic, right up to the coast. There is plenty of fuel for development but upper level winds are not ideal right now. My concern is that this is a small feature and computer models typically do not handle small systems very well. It is possible that this quickly develops, taking advantage of the window of opportunity even though, generally speaking, conditions across the Atlantic Basin are hostile and have been that way since the beginning of the season.
It is important for boating interests all along the Southeast coast to keep an eye on this developing weather situation. At the very least, locally rough seas, due to showers and thunderstorms, can be expected. It is not out of the question that a tropical storm forms which can complicate matters significantly.
The NHC has tasked a series of recon flights in to the area beginning on Monday. We’ll know a lot more then when their data is available. It will be interesting to see how quickly, if at all, this system develops and then what path it takes. With a busy 4th of July week ahead, the last thing we need is a tropical cyclone near the coast of the Southeast U.S.
I will post another update early this evening and an in-depth look at the system in my daily video blog which is posted to our iOS and Android app, Hurricane Impact. Don’t have it? Search Hurricane Impact in the App Store and on Google Play.
M. Sudduth 9:47 AM ET June 28