So far, Gordon not strengthening as it closes in on Gulf Coast

Visible satellite image of TS Gordon in the Gulf of Mexico

Visible satellite image of TS Gordon in the Gulf of Mexico

The good news this morning is that Gordon has not strengthened during the overnight hours. The cloud pattern looks a little more organized but reports from recon indicate that the pressure is not falling. That being said, we still have a good 12-18 hours before Gordon makes landfall and plenty of warm water ahead – so it is possible to see some additional intensification.

All in all, the main impacts remain the same: periods of heavy rain, squalls and some coastal storm surge as onshore flow commences later today along the Mississippi coast. The extent of these impacts will obviously depend on whether or not Gordon is able to become better organized and thus strengthen. It is wait and see now and we can do just that via coastal radar.

Meanwhile, we will continue to monitor Florence which remains far away from land areas and is likely to stay that way for the next five days at least. We have plenty of time to watch and see what the steering pattern is for Florence down the road.

Additionally, we have other areas to keep track of as well in the deep tropics, just west of the African coastline. It’s that time of year and this was to be expected, despite the cooler SST profile that was present during the early part of the summer.

I am in Mississippi where I will be reporting on conditions here over the next 24 hours or so. I’ll be placing remote cams and a weather station later this morning to capture what impacts Gordon brings. I’ll post another update here late this afternoon or early evening.

Harvey moving through the Windward Islands today bound for western Caribbean

TS Harvey track map from the NHC

TS Harvey track map from the NHC

Tropical storm Harvey is moving quickly through the Windward Islands where it has dumped heavy rain, resulting in some flooding in portions of Barbados this morning. The quick motion off to the west will mean that conditions begin to improve by this afternoon across the region as the storm enters the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Once Harvey clears the Windwards today, the next two or three days will be spent watching the evolution of not only its intensity but also its track. Some of the computer guidance suggests that Harvey will become a hurricane and a lot will depend on how close to Central America the storm gets. Obviously the more land interaction there is, the less Harvey will strengthen. Water temps in the western Caribbean are very warm with plenty of fuel for development.

The track forecast is fairly straight-forward essentially taking Harvey generally westward across the Caribbean through the weekend. Towards the end of the five day track the storm is expected to slow down some and gain a little more latitude. How much farther north remains to be seen but it is entirely possible that Harvey will end up over Honduras and move inland from there – never coming back out over water again. We will just have to wait a couple of days to see how the steering pattern plays out over the United States and what changes to the track result.

In the mean time, invest area 92L is holding on for now, probably as a tropical depression but since it is not near land, it really doesn’t matter in my opinion. Strong upper level winds are beginning to impact the system which means it will not have much time to strengthen further and it may just dissipate on its way west-northwest to the north of the Lesser Antilles. There is an outside chance that 92L survives the strong upper winds in a few days and thus could be an issue for the Bahamas or Florida but right now, that seems to be a long shot. We never say never this time of year but as of today, I am not too concerned with the future of 92L.

NHC begins new era of forecast advisories today

Newly designated "potential tropical cyclone two" and the 5-day track map. What does this mean? Watch the video discussion to learn more.

Newly designated “potential tropical cyclone two” and the 5-day track map. What does this mean? Watch the video discussion to learn more.

It looks as though invest area 92L will go on to become a tropical storm at some point. The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it has become better organized as today has progressed and as a result, the NHC has begun issuing advisories on it….even though it is not yet a tropical depression or a storm.

This new initiative by the NHC was slated for starting this season though I am sure not many people thought it would be implemented so soon, especially for a tropical wave out in the tropical Atlantic. This is certainly highly unusual to say the least.

I have prepared a special video discussion covering this developing situation which you may view below. I’ll have more coverage here tomorrow, including the latest concerning 93L in the NW Caribbean Sea – which is also forecast to strengthen further and likely become a tropical storm.

M. Sudduth 5:20 PM ET June 18

92L in the tropical Atlantic bears watching as we wait and see about potential Gulf system

The hurricane season is getting off to a somewhat busy start. While we have not had a new named storm since the beginning of the season, that may be about to change.

Currently, the NHC is monitoring two areas for possible development. One is way out in the deep tropics and has been designated as invest area 92L. The other is a slowly organizing system in the western Caribbean that has potential for further development once it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico.

I am most interested right now in 92L out in the deep tropics. It has the potential to become a tropical depression and maybe a tropical storm as it approaches the Windward Islands in about 5 days.

The Gulf system is less of a concern at the moment since it is unclear whether or not a low pressure area will ever actually take shape. Could be a large lop-sided area of showers and storms with some tropical storm force winds on the east side, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

I go over all of this and more in my video discussion for today which is posted below.

M. Sudduth 2:30 PM ET June 16

Tropics busy but nothing set to impact land

Atlantic looking fairly busy considering the strong El Nino season

Atlantic looking fairly busy considering the strong El Nino season

We are closing in on the mid-point of the hurricane season in terms of climatology- September 10th marks the traditional peak of the season. Despite a fairly strong El Nino currently dominating the Pacific, the Atlantic Basin has managed to eek out enough activity to keep the maps active. Today is no exception with several areas to monitor in the coming days.

First, we have TS Grace which is likely to weaken and eventually dissipate somewhere in the Caribbean, if not before. It may bring additional rain to the region but it shouldn’t be too much and hopefully nothing like what Erika brought to Dominica recently.

Grace has little chance of making it to the United States as a tropical cyclone due to the persistent band of strong upper level winds and dry mid-level air situated over the deep tropics.

Next up is invest area 92L which is situated to the east-southeast of Bermuda this morning. The NHC says that it consists of a broad area of low pressure that is supposed to be nearly stationary over the next day or two. Water temps in the region are quite warm and most computer guidance suggests that this will become a tropical depression and perhaps a tropical storm before heading on out in to the far north Atlantic. No worries in Bermuda except for a possible increase in surf as the system organizes.

Elsewhere, a rather innocent looking tropical wave is moving through the southeast Caribbean Sea that could end up in a position where it could fester and try to develop down the road. The global models have been hinting at development somewhere in the western Gulf of Mexico within about a week. In fact, for what it’s worth, the often reliable ECMWF has been rather consistent with this scenario over the past few days. Right now, it’s just something to take note of but nothing more. I think that within 72 hours we’ll have a much clearer idea of what may or may not take shape in the Gulf of Mexico as we get in to next week.

Hurricane Linda satellite photo

Hurricane Linda satellite photo

In the east Pacific, hurricane Linda remains well offshore of Mexico and is expected to weaken as it moves to the northwest with time. However, this morning, it sure seems like it’s on a strengthening trend with a clearer eye showing up in satellite imagery. There is likely to be an increase in the wave action along portions of the Baja as the hurricane moves past but the heavy weather should remain far enough to the west to limit any additional impact. Some high-level moisture may get pulled northeast in to the Desert Southwest later in the week as the hurricane has a large circulation associated with it.

I’ll have a thorough video discussion posted later this afternoon that will take a closer look at all of the happenings in the tropics.

M. Sudduth 8:50 AM ET Sept 8