Thoughts on Andrea plus the tropical Atlantic

This is a fairly active Tropical Weather Outlook Map for early June

This is a fairly active Tropical Weather Outlook Map for early June

Andrea made landfall early this evening along the Big Bend area of Florida as a solid tropical storm. Heavy rain bands produced some flooding as well as tornadoes across portions of the Florida peninsula today. Now that the center is over land, a steady weakening will take place though the threat of additional impacts from Andrea is not over.

Bands of heavy rain will rotate onshore across coastal Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina throughout the remainder of the night. These spiral bands are capable of dropping a quick inch or two of rain if they train over an area for an extended period of time. There is also a slight risk of tornadoes tonight though without daytime heating to help elevate those thunderstorms within the rainbands, this risk is quite low.

The main issue will be tomorrow as the storm moves up the I-95 corridor and continues to dump excessive rain fall over a large area. This will make travel difficult and I know that people, despite the storm, will be headed to the area beaches as school is now out for a lot of families. Please, take my advice and slow down, leave extra time to get to your destination. I have driven in many a hurricane and know the dangerous of not just the roads but OTHER DRIVERS who could not care any less about others. I want you back reading the blog Monday, so drive safe!

I know this will be a rainy and generally nasty start to the weekend for the region but, no worries, by Noon Saturday, skies will clear and places such as Tybee Island, Hilton Head, Wrightsville Beach and the Outer Banks will be fine and dandy – so do not cancel plans if you’re headed there this weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we have 92L which went mostly un-noticed by most until late this afternoon when it became a little better organized over the deep tropics. I believe this is a sign of things to come as the atmoshphere is more unstable across the deep tropics this season and it will not surprise me to see an active July out that way considering the distinctly different set up than we’ve seen in recent years. For now, 92L is fighting against one heck of a shear machine which is common for June. If this were late August, we’d be looking at our next named storm already with this system. It’s just something to monitor and will not have a negative impact on any land areas anytime soon, if at all.

I’ll post more here in the morning and plan to add a few video clips to our iPhone app, Hurricane Impact, throughout the day tomorrrow from the Wilmington, NC area.

M. Sudduth

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A lot of rain for the eastern 3rd of U.S. but no tropical troubles per se

A lot of rain heading for the East as deep moisture rides out of the warm Gulf of Mexico

A lot of rain heading for the East as deep moisture rides out of the warm Gulf of Mexico

The tropics are busy with hurricane Nadine and now two areas of interest, 92L and 93L, to keep an eye on over the coming days.

However, conditions are just not ripe for anything significant to develop across much of the western and central Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico. A combination of dry mid-level air and fairly high wind shear should limit any development of either of these two invest areas.

Meanwhile, hurricane Nadine is stuck in the pattern it seems and will be bothering the Azores Islands this week with possible hurricane conditions. After that, Nadine is going nowhere fast as the steering flow is such that we could be talking about it a week from now; still out over the eastern Atlantic.

One side effect of 93L in the western Gulf is its moisture that will feed in to an approaching cold front sweeping across Texas right now. Plenty of deep moisture will be lifted north and east over the week ahead and with it, the chance for heavy rains across portions of the eastern U.S., especially in the mountains. Just be aware of this as too much rain in short order can cause quick flooding problems.

We’ll watch 92L as it moves in to and across the Caribbean Sea. This is the time of year to look for development in that region but as of now, none of the dynamic global models indicate much at all.

I have covered all of this and more in our daily video blog for the HurricaneTrack app for iPhone. If you own it, check it out now. If not, get the app today via the link above or by searching “hurricanetrack” in the app store from your device. I’ll have much more here tomorrow morning.

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Ernesto skirting the southern Bay of Campeche as rest of tropics brew but not yet boiling

Atlantic Conditions

Atlantic Conditions

TS Ernesto is close to making its final landfall along the Mexican coast this morning in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche. Top winds were near 70mph as of the latest NHC advisory at 5am ET. There is still a window of opportunity for Ernesto to become a hurricane again but time is running out – luckily. Once Ernesto is on shore, it will obviously weaken and do so quickly over the increasingly rugged terrain of Mexico. However, the threat of excessive rain fall will exist for a couple of days until the circulation completely dissipates.

Elsewhere, hurricane Gilma in the east Pacific poses no threat to land and never will. There is also invest area 93-E (E for east Pacific) which bears watching over the next few days but should not become a problem for land areas either, at least not in the near term.

The Atlantic Basin, aside from Ernesto, is not looking too bad. Even though 92L is out in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, I see little reason to believe that it will amount to much over the coming days. The pattern is actually quite negative in the upper levels for development right now. A series of large and persistent upper level low pressure areas is creating a lot of strong winds aloft which in turn is preventing much from happening in the deep tropics. None of the global models, which handled Ernesto very well, show 92L developing in to anything to worry about. It may still bring a period of squally weather to the Lesser Antilles this weekend but that should be about it.

A large tropical wave is about to emerge from Africa and it could develop once it reaches the warm Atlantic but here too, the global models simply do not show much happening. Perhaps the warming of the Pacific is finally taking its toll on the Atlantic in terms of strong upper level winds. Perhaps it is something else. I don’t know for sure but the signs are not there right now for anything serious to brew up over the next few days. We know how quickly this can change so we’ll certainly want to keep tabs on conditions as we move deeper in to August.

I’ll have another blog post later this morning concerning the first update we’re about to push to the HurricaneTrack app.

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