A look at various computer models shows the complex situation with 95L
There’s nothing much new happening with invest 95L this morning. The loosely defined center is located over the Yucatan peninsula with limited deep convection associated with it. The NHC notes that conditions are favorable for some development once the low emerges in to the SW Gulf of Mexico. The global models generally agree with this scenario and show some organization over the next few days as the low moves slowly westward. This could lead to even more rain for portions of Mexico where hurricane Ingrid made landfall recently.
As you can see from the graphic, the computer models are not in agreement as to where the system will track over the coming days. The pattern is complex and there is no easy answer for what may happen with this system.
One interesting item of note – the two most reliable global models, the ECMWF and the GFS, both show very little in the way of strengthening with this system once it is over the Gulf of Mexico. On the other hand, the UKMET model, another fairly reliable global model, shows modest strengthening with a track towards Mississippi. As usual, the hurricane-specific HRWF model creates a strong hurricane out of the situation, something that I simply cannot believe at this point.
It looks like the global models are depicting the energy from the low pressure area getting strung out over a wide area and thus it never has time to focus and thus we see a weak storm at best. Complicating matters is what appears to be a low pressure area that develops across the southern tier of the U.S. that itself moves along the northern Gulf Coast and Southeast, finally moving offshore of the Carolinas. This is more like what we see in winter with southern-track storms that bring heavy rain and severe weather with them.
The end result looks to be a rather slow process taking shape with this system. While it is possible that we see something significant come of it, I have my doubts at this point. I believe the more likely scenario is a weak tropical storm forms in the southwest Gulf, mills around for several days and then gets pulled east, strung out and disorganized but a big rain maker. I guess time will tell.
For the next couple of days, the weak area of low pressure will gradually move off the Yucatan and from there we will see what it does. Heavy rain and squally conditions are going to continue for the region as the low moves quite slowly.
Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, TD Manuel, which made landfall a few days ago in Mexico, has managed to get back out over the water and is forecast to become a tropical storm again as it too dumps more heavy rain on the Pacific side of Mexico. The NHC forecast takes the soon-to-be storm in to the Baja area and then turns it southward, finally weakening at the end of the forecast period.
It has been a strange hurricane season – one that has featured a few systems that have seemingly died out, only to come back again a short time later. We’ve also not had any strong hurricanes form in either the east Pacific or the Atlantic this season, opposite of what was forecast earlier in the year. However, we’ve seen a lot of rain from landfalling storms and hurricanes and that has been problematic for people who have had to deal with it. We still have a few weeks left of the peak time of the season, at least from a climatological perspective. So far, no intense hurricanes have come along, perhaps it will stay that way. I see nothing in the long range to indicate a change but we do have to deal with what ever comes of 95L. Once we are past that, we may start to slow things down quite a bit, we’ll see. So far, so good.
I’ll post more here this evening on 95L and have a look at the day’s model output.
M. Sudduth 7:40 am ET Sept 18