Hurricane season begins

It’s June 1 and that means the official start to the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season had arrived. For the next six months the Atlantic Basin will be monitored closely by hurricane trackers all over the world.

What is it about hurricanes that captivates the imaginations of so many people? A large part of it has to do with proximity: most people who care enough to track hurricanes more than just passively actually live on or very near the coast. Thus, these folks have a vested interest in what may be coming from the tropics.

Still, a large number of people from all over the country and indeed, from around the world, track hurricanes with great interest. I think it is the still mysterious nature of these children of the oceans that draws people in. It’s a power far greater than any of us can begin to comprehend and so we are glued to our computers, our mobile devices and our TVs and radios when the likes of a Hugo, Andrew or Katrina comes calling.

So what’s in store for 2013? Every respected hurricane forecasting entity from universities to NOAA to private firms have all suggested that this season could be quite busy. What none of them can tell us though, not with any degree of accuracy, is where these future hurricanes will end up. Will it be your back yard? Will they remain just far enough off the East Coast to warrant only concern but little else? There’s just no way to know for sure. We can venture to guess based on past patterns but I think it is better to be aware and be prepared.

Speaking of being prepared, what does that mean? For me, I think it is two-part concept. First, it’s about education and knowing the enemy. The more you know about something that can potentially harm you, the better you can prepare for it. Second, it’s about doing what you can to mitigate loss over the long term. Sure the preparedness tips are helpful: stock up on this and that for the storm event itself but what about long term plans to lessen the impacts over time? Simple things like having a generator and knowing how to properly use and maintain it can help to save your refrigerated goods and provide some level of comfort after a landfall. Perhaps it’s getting to know your insurance agent and your policy a little better. Why wait until everyone in your community is calling for help to get to know what’s covered and what’s not? The little things that can be done ahead of the watches and warnings will go a long way in minimizing stress and you may fare a little better because of it.

This season we will be promoting our iPhone (and soon to be released) Android app. It’s called Hurricane Impact and is exactly what it sounds like. We focus on the impact from tropical storms and hurricanes and that’s what it comes down to, right? If they all stayed out to sea, the hurricane app market would be a shadow of what it currently is. Hurricane Impact is affordable at $2.99 in the App Store and will give users a daily video blog, field mission video blogs, live wind and pressure data from our own weather stations, live web cam images and a new and innovative “Surge Cam” that we’ll set up to monitor storm surge along the coast. Add our own tracking maps, blog, Twitter and Facebook feeds and it’s a great addition to your weather apps collection. Click here to get it now.

One this first day of the season I am happy to report that there are no areas of concern in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf. We may see a low pressure area evolve in the Gulf of Mexico later this week but it looks to remain weak and rather disorganized. Still, rain chances may be on the increase for the Florida peninsula as we move through the week so keep an eye out for that.

I’ll be hosting a special live Ustream broadcast on Monday night – 8pm ET – to discuss the season and talk about our plans for field coverage. To watch live, simply go to our Ustream channel: Ustream.tv/hurricanetrack on Monday evening. I will have Mike Watkins and Jesse Bass, both long time colleagues and great friends of mine, on with me to round out the discussions. Hope you can tune in – if not, I’ll save it for later viewing anytime.

I’ll post a blog at least once a day, every day of the season. With that said, I’ll have more tomorrow.

M. Sudduth

Share

East Pacific hurricane season begins today as does my trip to New York and New Jersey

East Pacific invest 90-E

East Pacific invest 90-E

It’s May 15 and that means the east Pacific hurricane season is now underway. Right on cue, a tropical depression appears to be forming well off the coast of Mexico where waters are warm enough to support the deep convection noted in satellite imagery.

All of the forecast models indicate that the developing low pressure area will move westward and away from the Mexican coastline over the next several days.

The east Pacific season begins two weeks ahead of the Atlantic season though both basins see about the same amount of activity per 100 years during this time of the year – so I am not certain as to why the Atlantic season does not officially begin until June 1. In any case, we do have something to monitor on this opening day of the east Pacific season though it poses no threat to land areas at this time.

In other news – I am heading up to New York and New Jersey beginning later this morning. I have a couple of projects to follow up on in New York City tomorrow and then I am going to travel back to coastal New Jersey where I was when Sandy made landfall. I’ll re-trace my steps in Long Branch and Belmar and might get to travel to other places farther south if time permits.

The unique thing about this trip is that I am going to stream the entire journey live on our public Ustream channel. I want to demonstrate our new “everywhere cam” that we’ll be using for our subscriber site this season. We’ll still have a free live camera streaming but it will be a traditional dash-mounted video camera. This new technology is amazing. There’s no laptop needed and the cam is so small and versatile that I can take it anywhere. The audio is incredible as well. I thought it would be great to test it out while showing anyone viewing a little of the East Coast countryside.

Once I get to the Jersey coast on Friday, you’ll want to tune in and see how things have progressed since Sandy. I’ll provide narration and insight as to what the impacts were and where I was and what I was doing back on October 29 of last year. Watch our Twitter feed for updates as to when something really worthwhile is streaming and then tune in by clicking the link below or simply bookmarking our Ustream channel page: Ustream.tv/hurricanetrack

Click here to watch our live Ustream feed

 

My next post will cover some exciting news about our app which is about to have a major update completed. Plus – is an Android version in the works? Check out the blog on Monday to find out.

M. Sudduth

Share

One month to go until hurricane season and we are getting ready

Welcome to May! Hard to believe we are just a month away from the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. Before then, the east Pacific season begins on May 15, so we will be ramping up our blog posts, etc in the coming weeks.

So what’s new for us in 2013? A lot. Too much to cover in one blog post, so I’ll spread it out over the next couple of weeks.

First, you’ll be hearing a lot more from and about colleague Mike Watkins. He has been working with us since late 2004 and has been with me personally on some of the biggest field missions of my career.

Mike started a new company last year called Hurricane Analytics. It is more than just about hurricanes as Mike is very good at deciphering data, all kinds of data, and making sense of it. However, his tropical weather expertise will allow him to utilize his site for some excellent analysis projects. You may follow Mike and his site on Twitter: @hurricaneanalytics or @watkinstrack

Mike has a new Podcast series called The HurriCast which will provide listeners with a different perspective on tropical weather news and data info. You may find his Podcast linked from the HurricaneAnalytics homepage.

Look for blog posts here from time to time from Mike as well and I too will be guest-blogging for his site. This cross-collaboration will be a nice new touch for our partnership as we go forward in to our ninth year working together.

Today begins our season pass sales for our subscription service

We have had a private subscription service since 2005 and it has grown to include nearly 500 members from around the world. Our annual plan is the most popular, and costs $99.95 per year for unlimited access to all we offer on our Client Services site. However, some folks find that the use the subscription site only during hurricane season. So, since 2011, we have offered a “season pass” for $59.95 and that too has become a successful part of our funding projects each season.

Well, today marks the first day that the pass for 2013 is available for purchase.

This year we are bringing a whole new experience to our members with a brand new live streaming camera system for our field missions. We call it the “everywhere cam” and it will be just that. Using new technology, we will be able to take our members anywhere we go during our field missions. No longer will you have to “wait” in the Tahoe, watching the Tahoe dash cam while we go do something outside of the Tahoe. Whether it be that we are scoping out a place to deploy one of our remote cams or actually setting up a weather station or remote cam, you will be there with us, complete with audio! In the past, we’ve only had our dash-mounted video camera for streaming from the Tahoe. This year, we’ll utilize cutting edge technology to give you a completely immersive experience in to our field work. When we go eat and discuss what’s going on with the hurricane that we are intercepting, you’ll come with us. When we head in to a police department or emergency management office to work with the local officials, you’ll go with us. It will be as if you are truly a part of what we are doing – no longer wondering what we’re up to as you sit and watch the dash cam. This is exclusive to our members and is 100% ad free. The general public will have access to our dash cam that will have commercials playing via Ustream every 12 minutes or so. This is an exciting new feature and we are looking forward to giving you a brand new look at how we do our field missions.
For a sample of how well this cam works, check out this actual recorded stream event from Louisiana back in March just after the National Hurricane Conference which was held in New Orleans:
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/30534667 (note this has commercials since it was recorded using our public Ustream channel)
In addition to our successful live video streaming capabilities, Client Services members will also enjoy:
  • Stormpulse maps
  • Live chat with other members and us
  • Daily LIVE hurricane outlook videos during the hurricane season (ad free)
  • 30 frame satellite and radar animations
  • Access to mobile device formatted pages, including pages that contain some of our live streaming feeds
  • Access to our three mobile weather stations that we deploy to capture live wind and pressure data
  • Access to our three private Surge Cams – 100% ad free
  • Expert analysis from Mark Sudduth and Mike Watkins throughout the season
  • Complete mission coverage from start to finish of each tropical storm and hurricane we intercept this season
All of this for just $59.95 for the season. To sign up today, use this link: Client Services Season Pass for 2013 Season
On Monday I will talk about our app. I have some much-anticipated news to share and look forward to that post. I think a lot of people will be VERY excited to hear what’s coming….
M. Sudduth
Share

Major changes with models for 99L that could lead to significant impacts for East Coast

GFS depiction of tropical cyclone over eastern Cuba in 96 hours

GFS depiction of tropical cyclone over eastern Cuba in 96 hours

There is a lot to discuss regarding the future track and intensity of 99L as it could affect literally millions of people from the Caribbean to the U.S. East Coast.

First, the current situation. Right now, 99L is rather disorganized over the Caribbean Sea but is forecast by all of the global computer models to gradually organize and become a tropical cyclone within the next two or three days. It looks like Jamaica, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola could be in line for quite a bit of rain and wind by the middle of next week.

By Thursday, the GFS places a strengthening tropical cyclone over eastern Cuba with heavy rains spreading across the southeast Bahamas. Water temps in this region are still very warm and it is possible that we could be looking at a rather strong tropical storm by this point as most of the guidance suggests steady strengthening.

By late next week, most of the reliable model output suggests a track in to the northern Bahamas, not too far off the Florida east coast. This is important because there is likely to be an indirect impact to Florida because of the presence of this system and a high pressure area to its north. It appears that a fairly strong surface high will move off the Northeast coast late next week and it could do two things. First, the high pressure north, coupled with the deepening low pressure off of Florida, will create quite a strong pressure gradient. This means the winds will be quite stiff out of the northeast for a good deal of the east side of Florida. So at the very least, rough surf and rip currents are a good bet towards the end of the week for Florida.

Sea surface temps along East Coast running at least 2 degrees above normal

Sea surface temps along East Coast running at least 2 degrees above normal

The other issue is that this high could act to block what would presumably be “Sandy” from turning out to sea. In fact, both the GFS and the ECMWF show this scenario and take what looks strong enough to be a hurricane right in to the East Coast of the U.S. somewhere north of Cape Hatteras. Sea surface temperatures in this region are running a couple of degrees above normal for this time of year and have not been disturbed by a previous hurricane earlier in the season. We are going to have to watch the evolution of this pattern very carefully over the next few days. What looked like a sure bet to send “Sandy” out to sea is no longer such a home run, so to speak. This could mean that people from the Caribbean Sea to Florida and eventually the East Coast have to deal with some degree of a tropical system over the next week or so. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas need to watch this system closely. We’ll see how things progress and can focus more on potential U.S. impacts as we get in to next week. For now, it looks like a slow process for 99L to develop but once it does, there is potential for it to impact a lot of people over a wide geographic swath.

I’ll post more here about 99L tomorrow morning. I also will be posting regular video blogs to our iPhone app which is a great way to visually understand what I discuss here in the blog posts. If you don’t have the app, there is no better time to get it. We’ve recently added our own tracking maps and of course have the exclusive in-field weather data, live web cams and video blogs should a landfall take place.

Share

A lot of rain for the eastern 3rd of U.S. but no tropical troubles per se

A lot of rain heading for the East as deep moisture rides out of the warm Gulf of Mexico

A lot of rain heading for the East as deep moisture rides out of the warm Gulf of Mexico

The tropics are busy with hurricane Nadine and now two areas of interest, 92L and 93L, to keep an eye on over the coming days.

However, conditions are just not ripe for anything significant to develop across much of the western and central Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico. A combination of dry mid-level air and fairly high wind shear should limit any development of either of these two invest areas.

Meanwhile, hurricane Nadine is stuck in the pattern it seems and will be bothering the Azores Islands this week with possible hurricane conditions. After that, Nadine is going nowhere fast as the steering flow is such that we could be talking about it a week from now; still out over the eastern Atlantic.

One side effect of 93L in the western Gulf is its moisture that will feed in to an approaching cold front sweeping across Texas right now. Plenty of deep moisture will be lifted north and east over the week ahead and with it, the chance for heavy rains across portions of the eastern U.S., especially in the mountains. Just be aware of this as too much rain in short order can cause quick flooding problems.

We’ll watch 92L as it moves in to and across the Caribbean Sea. This is the time of year to look for development in that region but as of now, none of the dynamic global models indicate much at all.

I have covered all of this and more in our daily video blog for the HurricaneTrack app for iPhone. If you own it, check it out now. If not, get the app today via the link above or by searching “hurricanetrack” in the app store from your device. I’ll have much more here tomorrow morning.

Share