92L in the tropical Atlantic bears watching as we wait and see about potential Gulf system

The hurricane season is getting off to a somewhat busy start. While we have not had a new named storm since the beginning of the season, that may be about to change.

Currently, the NHC is monitoring two areas for possible development. One is way out in the deep tropics and has been designated as invest area 92L. The other is a slowly organizing system in the western Caribbean that has potential for further development once it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico.

I am most interested right now in 92L out in the deep tropics. It has the potential to become a tropical depression and maybe a tropical storm as it approaches the Windward Islands in about 5 days.

The Gulf system is less of a concern at the moment since it is unclear whether or not a low pressure area will ever actually take shape. Could be a large lop-sided area of showers and storms with some tropical storm force winds on the east side, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

I go over all of this and more in my video discussion for today which is posted below.

M. Sudduth 2:30 PM ET June 16

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Possibility of Gulf of Mexico development next week

I posted recently that a window of opportunity for development could be lurking and it looks as though that chance is beginning to arrive.

The NHC has outlined an area of interest centered on the Yucatan peninsula that could become the focal point for possible tropical development early next week.

Right now, there is little to even monitor but the overall consensus of the global models is to gradually lower the pressures across the region as upper level winds become more conducive for something to take shape. It will be a fairly slow process and all indications are that the low will large and spread out meaning more rain and low wind impacts for a larger area – assuming this is what in fact happens.

I have prepared a detailed video discussion concerning the potential for development – check it out below. I will have more posted here tomorrow early afternoon.

Also – tonight I will be a guest on the popular Internet show Storm Front Freaks talking all things hurricanes. To watch live via YouTube, click this link – the show begins at 9pm ET and will be archived for later viewing and available as a podcast via iTunes.

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Window of development opportunity coming up?

It’s still early June and typically this time of the hurricane season means that things are usually quiet. Every once in a while we will get a June tropical storm or hurricane, but it’s not the norm. As most of you know, the season really begins to ramp up from about mid-August on. Usually….

This season might not be usual.

I am seeing the beginnings of signs that may point to a development window opening over the next week to ten days and beyond.

GFS and its ensemble members indicating a more favorable MJO state coming up for portions of the Western Hemisphere over the next couple of weeks

GFS and its ensemble members indicating a more favorable MJO state coming up for portions of the Western Hemisphere over the next couple of weeks

For starters, the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO is forecast by the GFS and Euro models to be moving in to the phase that often supports development somewhere within the Atlantic Basin. The MJO phenomenon is easy to think of as a period of fertility in the tropics, when deep convection can form and blossom, not just fizzle out and dissipate. While the MJO helps to enhance development it does not necessarily mean that development is a certainty.

The upcoming signal from the MJO is not especially strong but it is there (forecast to be there anyway) and could lead to better upper level winds over parts of the southeast Pacific and extending in to the western Caribbean and western Gulf. With water temps plenty warm in the region, all we need is a kick and it could lead to development in one basin or the other, maybe both. We will have to just wait and see.

If we look at the GFS operational model at the 850 millibar level which is about 5k feet up, we can see one week out from today that a wind shift or monsoonal trough begins to set up from the southeast Pacific, across Central America and in to the western Caribbean. This would act like a focusing mechanism for the air to come together or converge, probably leading to enhanced convection (thunderstorms) across the region.

GFS model at 168 hrs showing (yellow area) a wind shift and overall troff of low pressure stretched out over a large area, we call this a "monsson trough" and it can lead to development if conditions allow

GFS model at 168 hrs showing (yellow area) a wind shift and overall troughof low pressure stretched out over a large area, we call this a “monsoon trough” and it can lead to development if conditions allow

This large counter-clockwise “gyre” is so spread out that in and of itself it wouldn’t develop. We would need to see if an area of concentrated energy or vorticity breaks off and tries to develop out of this larger area of energy. If so, then a low pressure area could get going either in the Pacific or the western Caribbean – leading to the chance of a tropical depression or storm at some point.

As you can tell, the process is long and complex. I am not going to dwell on it day after day for two weeks but it is something to keep an eye on. At the very least, more rainfall than normal may be setting up for portions of Central America and it may lead to a named storm on one side of Central America or the other. Time will tell.

Then there is this interesting set up taking shape: The ECMWF (Euro) is indicating the possibility of an easterly wave (tropical wave) trying to develop way out in the deep tropics between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Remember, water temps out this way are running above the long term average. If we do in fact see a strong area of energy emerge from Africa, it could take advantage of the warmer water and more favorable conditions overall  and try to develop some. This would be highly unusual and a significant sign in my opinion that this season could be quite busy. Again, time will tell.

We live in an age when computer guidance and satellite information allows us to see in to the future of weather forecasting better than ever before. These early warning signs are helpful since we should no longer be totally caught off guard. It may not prevent a “Labor Day hurricane of 1935” scenario in which case we saw a TS become a Cat-5 hurricane in a very short amount of time but the advances in technology now allows us to be more aware than ever that a threat from the tropics is looming (or could be looming). My point is, do not be alarmed or worried. There’s no reason for that. Instead, be aware. We were told the season could be busier than average and these are possible signs of that happening. So just take note and pay attention a little more than normal perhaps. Applaud the fact that we have such tools at our disposal and as long as we know how to interpret them, it can be a good thing. After all, with such much at stake along our coastlines (all of us, not just the USA), the more lead-time the better; at least I think so anyway.

I’ll have more on Monday during my video discussion.

M. Sudduth 1:20 pm ET June 9

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Atlantic hurricane season begins today

Here we are again, it’s June 1 and that means it is hurricane season. A lot has been said in recent weeks about what kind of season we may have. While it appears that conditions would support a busy season, it is just too tough to know with much certainty how things will turn out. Even if we have a lot of hurricane activity, there’s no way to know where they will track. It is always best to just stay aware and be ready no matter what.

Since it is hurricane season now, the video discussions will be pretty much every day. I’ll post them here and of course they will be in our app, Hurricane Impact, and on YouTube (search hurricanetrack).

In today’s video I go over the latest on east Pacific tropical storm Beatriz and its effects on Mexico and some potential for it to redevelop somewhere within the Gulf of Mexico early next week. I also break down the latest SST anomalies and a look at recent ENSO thoughts as we begin the season.

M. Sudduth 4:30 PM ET June 1

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TD16 forms in SW Caribbean – forecast to become a hurricane

TD 16 track map from the NHC. Note the slow movement over the next five days and the forecast for the depression to become a hurricane as it approaches Central America.

TD 16 track map from the NHC. Note the slow movement over the next five days and the forecast for the depression to become a hurricane as it approaches Central America.

Hurricane season officially ends on November 30 but before we get to that date, we will have to deal with one more hurricane, or so it appears.

The NHC began issuing advisories on TD16 early this morning. The depression is located in the southwest Caribbean Sea, not far off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. Overall the environment is generally favorable with warm water temps and a small region of upper level winds that are conducive for additional strengthening. As such, the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm (name will be ‘Otto’) later today and eventually reach hurricane intensity as the week progresses.

Weak steering currents for the time being will result in a very slow motion of the depression as it meanders over the SW Caribbean. In the longer term, enough mid-level ridging should build in to gradually push the would-be hurricane towards the west and in to Central America. Precisely where landfall occurs remains to be seen but interests in Costa Rica, Panama and Nicaragua should be monitoring this system very closely.

The main hazard will be excessive rain and I cannot emphasize this enough. While the wind speed will gradually increase it is the rain that concerns me the most due to the slow movement. Right now there are no significant impacts being felt on land since the depression is far enough off the coast. However, once it begins to move westward later this week, bands of torrential rain will rotate onshore across southern Central America and the potential for flash floods will increase, especially in any mountainous areas. I will address this issue more once the NHC updates their “hazards impacting land” section of the Public Advisory. For now, residents and visitors to the region should be mindful of this system and be ready for the possibility of life-threatening flooding as the system approaches later this week.

Outside of TD16, the Atlantic Basin is quiet as we would expect for the last third of November. The season turned out to be fairly busy and with soon-to-be Otto on the horizon, the Atlantic will end up over-achieving for the year with activity running a little above the long term norm. I will have a more in-depth discussion of the 2016 season in a blog post scheduled for November 30. For now, we will focus on TD16 and its eventual impact to Central America.

I’ll have more in my video discussion which will be posted later this afternoon.

M. Sudduth 8:15 AM ET Nov 21

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