This will be short and to the point. The Atlantic Basin is very quiet right now which is typical for this time period of July. I see nothing within the major global models, nor in the general background state of things, to suggest that we will see development anytime soon. As I said, this is well within the reasonable climatological norm for this time of year.
Hurricane Fernanda in the eastern Pacific – NHC tracking map
On the other hand, a strong hurricane is moving westward in the eastern Pacific and it could get stronger. The NHC is tracking Fernanda which is located over 1000 miles southwest of the Baja peninsula. Top winds are 130 mph and we could see some additional strengthening as the hurricane moves over generally warm water with favorable upper level winds.
For now, Fernanda will just be a satellite novelty to watch since it is so far from land. We’ll see how close it manages to get to Hawaii many days down the road but almost always, hurricanes coming in from the east do not bring much in the way of impacts to the String of Pearls. Hopefully, this hurricane will not break the rules.
I will have more here on Monday including an in-depth video discussion covering topics from SST anomalies to the current state of the El Nino (or lack thereof) plus a look ahead at the next week to ten days. Have a great weekend.
It took a littler longer than we’ve seen in recent years, but the east Pacific finally has its first hurricane of the season: Dora.
Top winds are 85 mph and it is forecast to strengthen more as it moves west-northwest off the coast of Mexico. Fortunately, the small size of the hurricane will mean that very little impact will be felt along the Pacific coast of Mexico.
The forecast from the National Hurricane Center indicates a steady track to the west-northwest which will bring the hurricane over cooler waters, ultimately leading to its demise later this week. In fact, sea surface temperatures in the region are running below the long-term average by almost a full degree Celsius. This will equate to a quick weakening trend as the hurricane moves farther out in to the open Pacific.
In the Atlantic Basin, all is quiet for now. I will have a new video discussion posted later this afternoon which will address topics such as the weekly SST anomalies, current ENSO update and a look back at tropical storm Cindy and its impacts to the Gulf Coast and inland areas of the Southeast.
Here we are again, it’s June 1 and that means it is hurricane season. A lot has been said in recent weeks about what kind of season we may have. While it appears that conditions would support a busy season, it is just too tough to know with much certainty how things will turn out. Even if we have a lot of hurricane activity, there’s no way to know where they will track. It is always best to just stay aware and be ready no matter what.
Since it is hurricane season now, the video discussions will be pretty much every day. I’ll post them here and of course they will be in our app, Hurricane Impact, and on YouTube (search hurricanetrack).
In today’s video I go over the latest on east Pacific tropical storm Beatriz and its effects on Mexico and some potential for it to redevelop somewhere within the Gulf of Mexico early next week. I also break down the latest SST anomalies and a look at recent ENSO thoughts as we begin the season.
TS Adrian in the east Pacific – forecast is for a slow movement over the next five days with steady strengthening
The east Pacific hurricane season has begun with the formation of TS Adrian south of the Central American coastline. It is forecast to become a hurricane over the next few days as it moves fairly slowly off to the northwest. For the time being, Adrian poses no threat to land areas and its slow movement means that there will be plenty of time to monitor how the steering pattern shapes up and thus what the eventual track may be.
Global models are in general agreement that Adrian will eventually turn more to the north and perhaps back to the northeast sometime next week. We will just have to wait and see how this plays out since it looks like a complicated pattern developing which will mean a slow movement. Interests along the Pacific side of Central America and southeast Mexico should be monitoring the progress of Adrian, especially since it is forecast to become a solid hurricane within the next few days.
Speaking of intensity, most of the guidance suggests that the storm will in fact become a hurricane. Curiously, the HWRF model shows very little strengthening while the global models are more robust. With plenty of warm water and fairly light upper level winds, Adrian is more than likely going to intensify but again, it will remain well off the coast and should not pose a direct threat to land for now.
I’ll have continuing posts regarding the future track and intensity forecasts for Adrian over the next several days.
Latest model plot showing the likely track of invest area 90-E in the eastern Pacific
Officially, the east Pacific hurricane season gets going on May 15. That’s the date on a calendar – Mother Nature often strays from such notions and this year will be no exception.
The NHC is monitoring an area of low pressure, known as invest area 90-E (the “E” is for east Pacific) well off the coast of Central America and southeast Mexico. It is forecast to go on to develop in to a tropical depression and will likely become the east Pacific’s first named storm: Adrian.
Fortunately, the model guidance suggests a track that would keep much of the inclement weather offshore with only minimal impacts, if any, being felt on land. It’s something to keep an eye on for sure but nothing to be too concerned with just yet.
Let it also serve as a reminder that hurricane season is nearing – not only for the east Pacific, but also for the Atlantic Basin. That being said, it is Hurricane Preparedness Week and I encourage you to visit the updated section of the NHC’s site to learn what you can about tropical storms and hurricanes. There’s always something new, so even if you’re an avid weather geek who thinks they know a lot, might as well brush up your knowledge base and check out the latest from the NHC here.
I’ll have more on invest 90-E later this afternoon during my video discussion which will be posted to YouTube and here.