Hurricane Dora in east Pacific to be short-lived, no threat to Mexico

Hurricane Dora track map from the NHC

Hurricane Dora track map from the NHC

It took a littler longer than we’ve seen in recent years, but the east Pacific finally has its first hurricane of the season: Dora.

Top winds are 85 mph and it is forecast to strengthen more as it moves west-northwest off the coast of Mexico. Fortunately, the small size of the hurricane will mean that very little impact will be felt along the Pacific coast of Mexico.

The forecast from the National Hurricane Center indicates a steady track to the west-northwest which will bring the hurricane over cooler waters, ultimately leading to its demise later this week. In fact, sea surface temperatures in the region are running below the long-term average by almost a full degree Celsius. This will equate to a quick weakening trend as the hurricane moves farther out in to the open Pacific.

In the Atlantic Basin, all is quiet for now. I will have a new video discussion posted later this afternoon which will address topics such as the weekly SST anomalies, current ENSO update and a look back at tropical storm Cindy and its impacts to the Gulf Coast and inland areas of the Southeast.

M. Sudduth 10:40 AM ET June 26

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Atlantic hurricane season begins today

Here we are again, it’s June 1 and that means it is hurricane season. A lot has been said in recent weeks about what kind of season we may have. While it appears that conditions would support a busy season, it is just too tough to know with much certainty how things will turn out. Even if we have a lot of hurricane activity, there’s no way to know where they will track. It is always best to just stay aware and be ready no matter what.

Since it is hurricane season now, the video discussions will be pretty much every day. I’ll post them here and of course they will be in our app, Hurricane Impact, and on YouTube (search hurricanetrack).

In today’s video I go over the latest on east Pacific tropical storm Beatriz and its effects on Mexico and some potential for it to redevelop somewhere within the Gulf of Mexico early next week. I also break down the latest SST anomalies and a look at recent ENSO thoughts as we begin the season.

M. Sudduth 4:30 PM ET June 1

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Tropical storm Adrian forecast to become hurricane in SE Pacific

TS Adrian in the east Pacific - forecast is for a slow movement over the next five days with steady strengthening

TS Adrian in the east Pacific – forecast is for a slow movement over the next five days with steady strengthening

The east Pacific hurricane season has begun with the formation of TS Adrian south of the Central American coastline. It is forecast to become a hurricane over the next few days as it moves fairly slowly off to the northwest. For the time being, Adrian poses no threat to land areas and its slow movement means that there will be plenty of time to monitor how the steering pattern shapes up and thus what the eventual track may be.

Global models are in general agreement that Adrian will eventually turn more to the north and perhaps back to the northeast sometime next week. We will just have to wait and see how this plays out since it looks like a complicated pattern developing which will mean a slow movement. Interests along the Pacific side of Central America and southeast Mexico should be monitoring the progress of Adrian, especially since it is forecast to become a solid hurricane within the next few days.

Speaking of intensity, most of the guidance suggests that the storm will in fact become a hurricane. Curiously, the HWRF model shows very little strengthening while the global models are more robust. With plenty of warm water and fairly light upper level winds, Adrian is more than likely going to intensify but again, it will remain well off the coast and should not pose a direct threat to land for now.

I’ll have continuing posts regarding the future track and intensity forecasts for Adrian over the next several days.

M. Sudduth 8:30 AM ET May 10

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East Pacific hurricane season will begin a little early this year

Latest model plot showing the likely track of invest area 90-E in the eastern Pacific

Latest model plot showing the likely track of invest area 90-E in the eastern Pacific

Officially, the east Pacific hurricane season gets going on May 15. That’s the date on a calendar – Mother Nature often strays from such notions and this year will be no exception.

The NHC is monitoring an area of low pressure, known as invest area 90-E (the “E” is for east Pacific) well off the coast of Central America and southeast Mexico. It is forecast to go on to develop in to a tropical depression and will likely become the east Pacific’s first named storm: Adrian.

Fortunately, the model guidance suggests a track that would keep much of the inclement weather offshore with only minimal impacts, if any, being felt on land. It’s something to keep an eye on for sure but nothing to be too concerned with just yet.

Let it also serve as a reminder that hurricane season is nearing – not only for the east Pacific, but also for the Atlantic Basin. That being said, it is Hurricane Preparedness Week and I encourage you to visit the updated section of the NHC’s site to learn what you can about tropical storms and hurricanes. There’s always something new, so even if you’re an avid weather geek who thinks they know a lot, might as well brush up your knowledge base and check out the latest from the NHC here.

I’ll have more on invest 90-E later this afternoon during my video discussion which will be posted to YouTube and here.

M. Sudduth 8:55 AM ET May 9

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Hermine hanging around off Northeast coast as Newton hits Baja, brings rain threat to Southwest

Early morning visible satellite image of Hermine off the Northeast coast

Early morning visible satellite image of Hermine off the Northeast coast

The story of Hermine has yet to find its conclusion. The pesky, downright aggravating storm is still milling around off the Northeast coast. Fortunately, the environment combined with marginal sea surface temperatures will limit the amount of deep thunderstorms or convection and we won’t be having to deal with a hurricane just offshore.

As it stands, the system that we once called 99L, for a long time it seemed, is still packing 65 mph winds but those are confined to areas out over the open Atlantic. Onshore wind obs are lower but the seas are rough and with each high tide cycle, the beaches from New England south to parts of North Carolina keep getting chewed up. It’s like a slow, agonizing impact instead of in and out and be done with it. Sadly, it won’t come to an end for a few more days.

The complex steering pattern has resulted in Hermine being left behind and not caught  up in the westerly flow that we usually associate with sweeping tropical storms and hurricanes out to sea. Think of it as a rowdy kid who missed the morning bus. Now they are left to hang out in the neighborhood with no supervision – causing mayhem until another bus comes along. That’s Hermine in a nutshell. It missed the bus and now it’s sitting offshore being a pain in the butt.

About all I can say at this point is watch and wait for it to finally take off later this week. The coastal impacts are mounting but it is better than a direct hit from a true hurricane, I think we can all agree on that. Lucky for all of us, nothing is imminent once Hermine clears the pattern and gets out.

NHC track map showing hurricane Newton moving across the Baja, northwest Mexico and then in to the Southwest U.S.

NHC track map showing hurricane Newton moving across the Baja, northwest Mexico and then in to the Southwest U.S.

Meanwhile, hurricane Newton made landfall in the overnight hours along the Cabo San Lucas area of  the southern Baja peninsula. Top winds were near 90 mph and now the hurricane is headed more north with a turn towards the northeast expected. This will bring Newton across the Baja and in to northwest Mexico where torrential rain will likely move across the region and in to Arizona. We saw this twice in 2014 with Norbert and Odile moving out of the Pacific around this same time frame. Areas such as Tucson could see potentially heavy rains with gusty winds Wednesday and in to Thursday as the remnant low of Newton tracks in to the region. As such, a flash flood watch has been posted for parts of southern Arizona in anticipation of this event.

Elsewhere, the tropics are mostly quiet for now. The global models are suggesting a possible uptick in activity over the coming week to ten days but I am skeptical and for good reason. The models have done a terrible job of prediction genesis or the start of any tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic thus far. We need only look at Hermine as a fine example of this. Conditions are just not very favorable overall with considerable dry air still prevalent in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, acting like a cap keeping a lid of developing thunderstorms over the tropics.

I will have a thorough look at everything during my video discussion which will be posted later this afternoon.

M. Sudduth 9:15AM ET Sept 6

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